What was the strategic rationale behind Trump's nuclear submarine move? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Nuclear Deterrence
• Nuclear Saber Rattling
• Second Strike Capability
• Rhetorical Bluster
• Escalation
• US-Russia Relations
• Kremlin's Anti-Western Tone

Trump's Submarine Order: Rhetoric and Symbolism

• President Trump ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned closer to Russia in response to "highly provocative comments" from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
• Charles Kupchan characterizes this as "largely rhetorical and symbolic," a form of "nuclear saber rattling" on both sides.
• The exchange began with Medvedev's response to Trump's threat of secondary sanctions against countries buying Russian oil and gas.

Nuclear Submarines and Deterrence

• The core logic of nuclear submarines is their undetectability, ensuring a "survivable second strike" capability.
• Moving submarines closer to Russia might reduce flight times for missiles but doesn't fundamentally alter the stability of nuclear deterrence.
• The US already has submarines in locations capable of hitting targets in Russia.

Medvedev's Role and Kremlin's Stance

• Medvedev is described as the "attack dog of the Kremlin," using social media to launch anti-Western rhetoric, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine.
• Kupchan notes Medvedev's transformation from a moderate, liberal reformer during his presidency (2008-2012) to a more aggressive figure as Deputy Director of the Security Council.
• While Medvedev may not directly speak for Putin, he represents the Kremlin's increasingly sharp anti-Western tone.

Risk of Escalation

• Kupchan believes the situation is unlikely to escalate into a direct war between Russia and NATO.
• Both Russia and the US have been careful to avoid direct conflict.
• The key question is how Trump will increase pressure on Russia to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

Conclusion

The positioning of US nuclear submarines closer to Russia is primarily a symbolic act of nuclear saber-rattling in response to provocative statements from Dmitry Medvedev. While it doesn't fundamentally alter the nuclear balance, it highlights the heightened tensions between the US and Russia. The focus remains on preventing escalation and finding ways to pressure Russia towards a negotiated resolution in Ukraine.