What the US attack on Iran means for global nuclear proliferation | DW News

Key Concepts:

• UN Security Council Emergency Session
• US Strikes on Iran
• Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
• Safeguards Obligations
• Fordo Nuclear Facility
• Verification Activities
• Regime Survival
• Diplomatic Solution
• Military Escalation

UN Security Council Emergency Session and US Strikes:

• The UN Security Council held an emergency session following US strikes in Iran.
• Iran called for the meeting, seeking international condemnation of the US attack, describing it as a "blatant and unlawful act of aggression" that destroys diplomacy.
• Russia, China, and Pakistan proposed a ceasefire in the Middle East, but the timing of a vote is uncertain.
• Rafael Grossi, head of the UN's nuclear watchdog (IAEA), warned the Security Council that the attacks threaten efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation.

IAEA's Assessment and Verification Challenges:

• Grossi stated that military escalation endangers lives and delays a diplomatic solution for ensuring Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons, also threatening the global non-proliferation regime.
• Goajar Muhajanova, an expert at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, noted that assessing the extent of damage to Fordo and other sites is difficult, especially since Fordo is deep underground.
• Satellite imagery can show some damage, but the real extent can only be determined by on-site IAEA inspectors.
• IAEA inspectors are still in Iran and prepared to resume verification duties once it is safe, requiring a cessation of hostilities and guarantees for inspector safety, as well as Iranian cooperation.

Knowledge of Iran's Nuclear Program:

• The IAEA has a "fairly full picture" of Iran's nuclear program.
• Iran submitted information about its newest enrichment site shortly before the attack, which the IAEA has not yet had the chance to inspect thoroughly.
• Verification efforts in Iran have been ongoing for decades, but some questions remain about past activities and nuclear material at previously undeclared sites.
• Muhajanova suggests there isn't a "large hidden program" as some reports might suggest.

Potential Impact of Iran Leaving the NPT:

• Iran leaving the NPT would pose a "serious challenge" to the non-proliferation regime.
• Ongoing diplomatic efforts for over two decades have relied on the NPT.
• If Iran withdraws, citing extraordinary circumstances and security interests, it could trigger reactions in the region and undermine trust in the non-proliferation regime.
• Muhajanova believes Iran's key priority is regime survival, and they are more likely to remain in the NPT if it serves that purpose.

Impact of Military Action on Diplomacy:

• Grossi believes military action postpones diplomacy that could prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
• The Israeli attack occurred when the US and Iran were planning to meet again for talks, which were not progressing well but had not broken down.
• Iran has stated they will not continue talks until the attacks stop and a ceasefire is in place, creating an impasse.

Threat to the Global Non-Proliferation Regime:

• The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has 190 state parties, with all but five being non-nuclear weapons states committed to not acquiring nuclear weapons and submitting nuclear activities to IAEA safeguards.
• Iran, as a non-nuclear weapons state, has faced concerns about compliance with safeguards obligations, and the IAEA board found some actions in breach of these obligations.
• Intelligence assessments indicated that Iran had not restarted its coordinated nuclear weapons program believed to have existed prior to 2003, suggesting no immediate threat.
• The attack undermines trust in the benefits of being a non-nuclear weapon state party to the NPT.
• The lack of a diplomatic solution and continued military strikes undermine the non-proliferation regime.

Regime Change and Iran's Nuclear Program:

• The White House rhetoric about regime change threatens the Iranian regime's survival.
• It is uncertain whether regime change would end Iran's nuclear program.
• Regime change is not guaranteed to be successful, and the nature of the replacement regime is unknown.
• Iran's nuclear program started under the previous monarchy, indicating that regime change alone does not guarantee the end of nuclear weapons efforts.

Conclusion:

The situation is highly volatile, with the US strikes escalating tensions and potentially undermining diplomatic efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The IAEA's ability to verify Iran's nuclear activities is hampered by the ongoing conflict. The future of the NPT and the broader non-proliferation regime is at risk, and the impact of potential regime change in Iran on its nuclear ambitions remains uncertain.