What the ousting of 2 top generals means for China’s military

Key Concepts

• Central Military Commission (CMC): China’s highest military command, chaired by President Xi Jinping.
• PLA (People's Liberation Army): The armed forces of China.
• Anti-Corruption Drive: Ongoing campaign led by Xi Jinping to root out corruption within the PLA.
• War Readiness: The PLA’s ability to effectively engage in and win local wars, a key goal by the 2027 centenary.
• Theater Commands: The five regional commands responsible for military operations within China (Eastern, Southern, Western, Northern, and Central).
• Sorties: Individual military flights or missions.

The Investigation of Top PLA Generals: Implications for China’s Military

The transcript details the recent investigations into two high-ranking generals within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA): Zhang Yosha and Liu Zhenli. These investigations are significant due to the generals’ positions within the PLA hierarchy and the Central Military Commission (CMC).

Significance of the Generals’ Removal

Zhang Yosha held the most senior position within the entire PLA system, ranking directly below President Xi Jinping. His role as a member of the 24-man Politburo (now reduced to 22 due to the anti-corruption drive) underscored his political importance. Liu Zhenli served as the chief of the PLA’s Joint Staff Department, responsible for command, control, and operational planning. Notably, both generals possessed real combat experience, dating back to the Sino-Vietnamese border conflict in the 1970s – a rarity among current senior commanders given decades without major warfare. Their removal leaves President Xi Jinping and Vice Chairman Zhang Shangmin as the only remaining members of the CMC with significant decision-making authority.

Impact on the Central Military Commission

While the CMC is the highest command structure for the Chinese military, ultimate commanding power rests with President Xi Jinping due to the “CMC chairperson responsibility system.” This system positions other CMC members in supportive roles to Xi Jinping’s key decisions regarding military development and combat strategy. Previously, the CMC had two vice chairmen; Zhang Yosha filled one role focused on combat, while the other, Hong, was previously removed in an earlier anti-corruption sweep and focused on political work within the PLA. The recent investigations, coupled with previous dismissals (including the Minister of Defense Li Shangfu), have created disruptions in the command structure and communication chain. However, the PLA maintains a large number of deputies prepared to assume the responsibilities of their dismissed superiors.

Xi Jinping’s Priorities and the 2027 Centenary

The investigations coincide with the approaching centenary of the PLA’s founding in August 2027. While the specific goals for the centenary remain vague, Xi Jinping stated in the 20th Party Congress that the PLA must be capable of “winning local wars” by that date. The current anti-corruption drive is viewed by Beijing as crucial to achieving this goal, as corruption is perceived as a serious threat to the PLA’s war readiness. State media and military outlets consistently emphasize this connection.

The anti-corruption campaign began in the second half of 2023 and has already led to the downfall of commanders from all five of China’s Theater Commands, as well as leaders from the Ground Force, Air Force, Navy, and Rocket Force. Despite these high-profile removals, the pace of PLA modernization has not significantly slowed. For example, China commissioned its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, and numerous amphibious assault vessels in 2023, potentially intended for operations in the Taiwan Strait.

Military Pressure on Taiwan

Despite the sacking of the commander of the Eastern Theater Command (responsible for Taiwan), PLA military pressure on Taiwan has increased rather than decreased. The number of PLA aircraft sorties near Taiwan rose in 2023, and the PLA conducted two large-scale military exercises near Taiwan at the same level as in 2023 and 2024. This suggests that cleaning up the military is now a higher priority for Xi Jinping, but it hasn’t yet demonstrably impacted the PLA’s operational tempo or modernization efforts.

Data and Statistics Mentioned

• Politburo Membership: Reduced from 24 to 22 members due to the anti-corruption drive.
• Centenary Goal: PLA aims to be capable of “winning local wars” by August 1st, 2027.
• Theater Command Commanders: Commanders of all five Theater Commands have been removed or disgraced.
• Aircraft Carrier: China commissioned its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, in 2023.
• Taiwan Sorties: PLA aircraft sorties near Taiwan increased in 2023 despite the removal of the Eastern Theater Command commander.
• Military Exercises: Two large-scale military exercises conducted near Taiwan in 2023 and 2024, at the same level as previous years.

Notable Quote

“...cleaning up corruption would definitely help war readiness in the long term.” – Jun Mai, Post’s China News Editor, reflecting the perspective of Xi Jinping and Beijing’s military leadership.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The investigations into Generals Zhang Yosha and Liu Zhenli represent a significant shakeup within the PLA’s leadership. While the removal of these key figures creates short-term disruptions, the ultimate decision-making power remains firmly with President Xi Jinping. The anti-corruption drive is presented as a critical component of enhancing the PLA’s war readiness, particularly in the context of the 2027 centenary goal. Despite the widespread purges, there is currently no evidence to suggest that China’s military modernization or its assertive posture towards Taiwan have been significantly hampered. The situation underscores Xi Jinping’s commitment to consolidating control over the PLA and ensuring its loyalty and effectiveness.