What The New World Order Means For The Commodities Trade

Key Concepts

• AI-Driven Commodity Demand: The surge in demand for specific commodities due to the rapid development and deployment of Artificial Intelligence.
• Geopolitical Resource Competition: Increased competition between nations to secure access to critical resources necessary for AI infrastructure.
• Critical Minerals & Rare Earth Elements: Specific materials (e.g., lithium, cobalt, gallium, germanium) essential for AI chip production, data centers, and related technologies.
• Lithium Triangle: The region encompassing Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia, holding a significant portion of global lithium reserves and processing capacity.
• Safe Haven Assets: Precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, palladium) traditionally sought during times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty.

The Geopolitics of AI: A Commodity Race

The video highlights a growing trend: the increasing centrality of commodities in international politics, driven by the global race to achieve dominance in Artificial Intelligence (AI). The speaker emphasizes that understanding geopolitics, geography, and geology will be crucial for investors in 2026 and beyond. The AI boom is projected to dramatically increase demand for key materials, with demand for copper, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, and silicon expected to triple by 2030. Furthermore, precious metals – gold, silver, platinum, and palladium – reached record highs in 2025, fueled not only by their traditional role as safe haven assets during turbulent times but also by their essential role in AI infrastructure.

Resource Hotspots and National Interests

Several specific regions and countries are identified as key players in this resource competition.

• Greenland & Venezuela: Both possess significant untapped deposits of critical minerals and rare earth elements vital for advanced AI chips. Former President Trump’s interest in Greenland, while publicly downplayed, is implicitly linked to these mineral resources.
• Russia: Russia is actively pursuing access to mineral-rich resources in the Arctic region.
• Ukraine: Ukraine holds Europe’s largest lithium reserves and substantial titanium reserves, both critical for AI development.
• China: China currently controls approximately 70% of the global lithium processing capacity, largely due to its established presence within the “Lithium Triangle” – Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia. This dominance presents a strategic advantage.

The speaker asserts that nations are increasingly willing to take “bold moves” to secure these resources and protect strategic economic routes, signaling a return to a period of heightened geopolitical competition reminiscent of historical power struggles. As stated, “There isn't a second place in this,” underscoring the perceived high stakes of winning the AI race.

Emerging Commodities and Investment Strategies

Beyond the well-known commodities, the video points to increasing importance of lesser-known industrial metals like gallium and germanium. These materials are crucial inputs for semiconductors, AI chips, fiber optic systems, and military applications. The speaker anticipates that demand for these materials will soon outstrip supply.

Regarding investment strategies, the speaker recommends directly owning the commodities themselves, citing their low correlation to traditional assets like stocks and bonds, which provides a “risk return benefit” to a diversified portfolio. Investment vehicles suggested include active management through ‘40 Act mutual funds or Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

Market Outlook and Volatility

The outlook for 2026 is generally positive for markets, but the competition for AI-critical resources is expected to contribute to increased market volatility. The speaker advises investors to pay close attention to geopolitical developments and to familiarize themselves with commodities they may not have previously considered.

Geopolitical Risk as a Constant

The speaker concludes by acknowledging that geopolitical risk is a persistent factor in global markets. However, they emphasize that it should not deter investment, but rather be factored into investment strategies.

Technical Terms:

• Rare Earth Elements: A set of seventeen chemical elements with similar properties, used in a wide range of high-tech applications, including AI chips and magnets.
• Lithium Triangle: A region in South America (Chile, Argentina, Bolivia) containing a significant portion of the world’s lithium reserves.
• ‘40 Act Mutual Fund: A type of investment company regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940, offering diversified portfolios managed by professionals.
• ETF (Exchange Traded Fund): A type of investment fund traded on stock exchanges, offering diversification and liquidity.
• Semiconductors: Materials with electrical conductivity between that of a conductor and an insulator, essential components of electronic devices, including AI chips.