What's next for Gaza? BBC correspondents answer your questions on the ceasefire deal | BBC News

Key Concepts

• Fragile Ceasefire
• Deceased Hostage Return
• Humanitarian Aid Crisis
• Disarmament of Hamas
• Gaza Stabilization Force
• Palestinian Authority Reforms
• US Presidential Engagement
• Gaza Reconstruction & Unexploded Ordnance (UXO)
• War Crimes Indictments (ICJ/ICC)
• Palestinian Detainee Deportation
• International Journalist Access

Initial Assessment of the Post-Phase One Situation The current situation in the Middle East, following the initial phase of the deal (hostage release), is described as "very fragile" in both the short and long term. Initial signs are "not particularly encouraging," with specific incidents including seven Palestinians shot dead by Israelis on the "yellow line" (the Israeli withdrawal line) and clashes occurring inside Gaza. A significant point of contention is that not all deceased Israeli hostage bodies have been returned, which has "annoyed Israel." This immediate aftermath sets a precarious stage for the agreement's future.

The Critical Challenge of Deceased Hostage Return The incomplete return of deceased Israeli hostages is identified as the "first big test" of the deal. While the agreement anticipated that not all bodies could be returned immediately due due to being buried under rubble and Hamas's lack of precise knowledge of all locations, only four bodies have been returned so far. A task force involving Qatar, the US, Turkey, and the International Red Cross has been established with funding and technical support to locate the remaining bodies.

However, during negotiations, Hamas reportedly indicated possessing around 12 bodies but only handed over four. This has led to strong suspicion from the Israeli government that Hamas is withholding bodies as "leverage" for the progression of the second phase of the agreement. In response, the Israeli defense establishment is reportedly recommending a "hold back on aid" until the bodies are returned, marking this as a potential "pressure point or an inflection point" for the agreement's implementation.

On-the-Ground Realities and Internal Conflicts in Gaza The situation in Gaza presents a dual image: continued celebrations for the release of hostages alongside the return of Palestinian bodies. Approximately 40-45 bodies of Palestinians killed by the Israeli army have been returned to Nasser hospital. A critical issue is the lack of a DNA lab in Gaza to identify these bodies, compounded by an estimated 9,000 Palestinians missing during the conflict.

Internally, Hamas is clashing with Palestinian clans and gangs in East Gaza City, particularly in the Shija area. Hamas claims to be targeting "criminal active people" and those "collaborating with Israel." This internal fighting raises concerns among Gaza residents about a potential return to civil conflict, reminiscent of the near civil war in 2007.

Regarding the remaining bodies, Hamas officially states an inability to find all 24 due to a lack of equipment, requesting "advanced equipment to dig under the rubble." This process is expected to take "very long time." Israel's swift reaction to this delay included stopping the decision to fully open the Rafa crossing, which was hoped to allow 15,000 sick and injured Palestinians urgent medical care outside Gaza. This delay is causing significant worry in Gaza that the ceasefire could collapse.

Disarmament of Hamas and Future Governance of Gaza There is no specified timeline for the disarmament of Hamas within the agreement, which is described as containing "very few if any details," mostly "aspirations or statements of principle." Hamas has consistently maintained that it would only disarm upon handing its weapons over to a Palestinian state. In the areas from which Israel has withdrawn, Hamas has taken over security control, not to fight Israel, but to assert control against rival clans and gangs, leading to "civil conflict."

The proposed plan for Gaza's future includes an international stabilization force composed of soldiers from Arab countries and Turkey, working alongside Palestinian police (trained by Egyptians). However, the feasibility of this is unclear, as these Arab forces are unlikely to engage in direct conflict with Hamas.

Frank Gardner elaborated that this stabilization force is "very nascent" and "early days." It would consist of troops from Muslim-majority countries (e.g., Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, Emirates, Indonesia) for stabilization purposes only, not to forcibly disarm battle-hardened Hamas fighters. The force would not be large, and a Civil Military Coordination Center (CMCC) would be based at Ashdod, north of Gaza. Approximately 200 US logistic troops would assist but not enter Gaza, and no British troops are planned to be involved due to Britain's colonial past in the region. The initial phase of hostage/detainee release is seen as primarily about "optics" and celebration, with significant uncertainties remaining.

Humanitarian Aid Distribution and Challenges Humanitarian aid distribution faces significant challenges. Approximately 20 trucks were looted in an area under Israeli security control, inaccessible to Hamas forces, by "thousands of people." While around 600 trucks entered yesterday, including the first 30 trucks carrying cooking gas and fuel, this volume is "not near enough." UN agencies estimate Gaza needs 600 trucks daily for at least two months to address the humanitarian crisis.

The allowance of some trucks for traders and vendors has led to a "significant" drop in market prices (e.g., 1kg of flour from £15 to £1), as traders had previously hoarded goods. However, the majority of Gaza's population relies on aid, and any reduction in its flow is considered a "disaster."

Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has consistently denied restrictions on aid, attributing current flows to the ceasefire removing "security obstacles." However, the UN has maintained that "bureaucratic obstacles, delays," and blocked goods were also significant issues. A previous Israeli-backed "Gaza Humanitarian Foundation" model, which established aid hubs in military zones and led to Palestinian deaths, has "quietly gone away," with the UN now back in control of aid distribution, seen as a "tacit admission that that system failed."

Future Governance of Gaza and US Engagement The long-term plan for Gaza's governance involves the Palestinian Authority (PA), which needs "quite a lot of reforms" as it is "fairly discredited" (Hamas won the 2007 elections in Gaza). The decision on when the PA is ready to take over is vague, potentially involving a "Board of Peace" led by President Trump (if he remains engaged), Egyptian President Abdul Fattah el-Sisi, and other figures like Tony Blair.

Donald Trump's continued engagement is deemed "crucial," with concerns he might perceive the job as "done" once hostages are out. Trump is characterized as a "deals guy" who leaves details to others and likes to declare "job done," often prematurely (e.g., calling the ceasefire "the war is over"). The current situation is a ceasefire, not a "comprehensive peace deal," and "not peace in the Middle East." Palestinians are "nowhere near getting a state of their own," and there is no agreed structure for Gaza's governance, underscoring the critical need for US presidential "muscle."

Devastation and Reconstruction Challenges in Gaza Gaza has experienced "total devastation," with 90% of Gaza City (the capital) "completely destroyed." Essential infrastructure, including hospitals, banks, schools, universities, roads, clean water, and electricity, is non-functional. Personal accounts describe entire multi-story family homes being destroyed, forcing residents to live in camps and distrusting the ceasefire's longevity.

A significant hazard for reconstruction and return is unexploded ordnance (UXO). Halo Trust estimates that up to 10% of all munitions dropped on Gaza in the last two years might be unexploded, making the process of clearing rubble and searching for loved ones "incredibly hazardous."

Legal and Political Ramifications Outstanding indictments against Benjamin Netanyahu for war crimes from the ICJ and ICC remain legally unaffected by any peace deal. While a political dividend might arise if Netanyahu is seen implementing the peace deal (potentially leading to a political will not to arrest him by member states or an international push to drop charges), this would be a political, not a legal, decision.

Regarding a "Lebanon strategy" (sporadic strikes despite a deal), its adoption by Israel would depend on cross-border raids by Hamas or other militant groups and Israel's assessment of border safety. The situation in Lebanon, post-deal, is "certainly not quiet," and it's suggested that complete quiet won't be achieved until a Palestinian state exists.

Palestinian Detainee Deportation and Hostage Status 154 Palestinian detainees have been deported to Egypt, a practice Israel has engaged in since the First Intifada in the 1980s. These detainees will be distributed to five different countries, including Turkey and Qatar, where freed Palestinian prisoners from previous deals (like the 2012 Shalit deal) already reside. Immediate families of the deported detainees have been reunited with them on Egyptian soil. The situation is particularly difficult for those imprisoned for decades, now unable to return to their homes.

Evatar Davidid, the "young emaciated man" shown in a propaganda video (allegedly told to dig his own grave in a tunnel, suffering from starvation), has survived and returned to Israel. He is described as "very thin, very pale but walking," in good spirits, and was reunited with his family and childhood friend, both kidnapped from the Nova Music Festival.

Access for International Journalists Despite claims from Benjamin Netanyahu's spokeswoman that journalists are already in Gaza, international journalists "have not been allowed into Gaza." There is "huge mounting pressure" from news organizations, including the BBC, to gain access for independent reporting. Enormous tribute is paid to "very brave Palestinian journalists" who report from Gaza at great risk. The Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) excuse of it being "too dangerous" for journalists is challenged, with the argument that media organizations should be able to make that decision themselves, as they do in other conflict zones like Ukraine, Somalia, and Sudan.

Conclusion The current state of affairs in the Middle East, following the initial phase of the deal, is characterized by extreme fragility and numerous unresolved issues. The incomplete return of deceased hostages, the dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and the internal conflicts within the strip pose immediate threats to the ceasefire's stability. Long-term plans for Gaza's governance and Hamas's disarmament remain vague and challenging, heavily reliant on sustained international, particularly US, engagement. The physical devastation in Gaza is immense, compounded by the danger of unexploded ordnance, making any return or reconstruction efforts hazardous. Legal questions surrounding war crimes persist, and the lack of access for international journalists underscores the difficulty in obtaining independent, on-the-ground reporting. The path forward is fraught with political, logistical, and humanitarian complexities, with no clear resolution in sight for many critical aspects.