What's driving unrest in Tanzania after president's re-election? | Inside Story

Key Concepts

• Disputed Election: The recent general election in Tanzania, where the incumbent president was declared reelected with an overwhelming majority, is being contested by the opposition.
• Allegations of Violence and Crackdown: The opposition claims hundreds of people have been killed in a police crackdown following the election, while the government denies excessive force was used.
• Authoritarian Tendencies: The political climate in Tanzania is characterized by a long-standing ruling party (CCM), suppression of dissent, and instrumentalization of the justice system.
• Electoral Reforms: The opposition has been calling for electoral reforms for years, citing previous rigged elections, but these have not materialized.
• Constitutional Issues: The current Tanzanian constitution is seen as granting excessive power to the presidency, contributing to a lack of checks and balances.
• Authoritarian Solidarity: A concept suggesting that authoritarian governments in East Africa may be coordinating to support each other against internal unrest.
• Human Rights Violations: Reports include abductions, enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and torture.
• Internet Shutdowns: The government has implemented internet blackouts, hindering independent reporting and communication.
• Widespread Dissatisfaction: Protests and dissatisfaction are reported to be countrywide, not confined to specific regions.
• Demand for Justice: The opposition and citizens are demanding electoral justice, release of political prisoners, a new election management system, and a rerun of the election, with some even calling for the current president to step down.

Election Outcome and Opposition's Claims

Tanzania's incumbent president, Samia Suluhu Hassan, has been declared the winner of the general election with 98% of the vote. This outcome has been widely denounced by the opposition as a sham. The opposition party, Chadema, claims that hundreds of people have been killed in a police crackdown following the election, with some reports suggesting the number could be even higher. They allege that security forces used firearms and tear gas to disperse protesters, with at least 10 people confirmed killed in Dar es Salaam, Shinyanga, and Morogoro.

Government's Response and Denials

The Tanzanian government has denied accusations of excessive force. The foreign minister stated that any force used was protective and not excessive, citing instances where government properties and vehicles were damaged or burnt. The government also claims that the reported figures of deaths are unsubstantiated. Restrictions on independent monitors and a nationwide internet shutdown have made it difficult to independently verify information.

Background of Political Repression

The ruling CCM party has governed Tanzania since 1977. The opposition, particularly the Chadema party, has been vocal about alleged electoral rigging and has been demanding electoral reforms for years. However, rights groups report that repression has worsened in recent months, with dozens of people arrested, killed, or disappeared. The main opposition challenger, Tundu Lissu, is currently in jail on treason charges, which he denies, and many Chadema officials are in hiding.

Expert Analysis and Perspectives

What Has Gone Wrong in Tanzania?

• Nicodemus Mind (Researcher, Institute for Security Studies): Views the current crisis as a culmination of years of electoral injustices, human rights infringements, and political deterioration, including the capture of institutions. He describes the CCM's prolonged rule as symbolizing a personalization of politics, leading to widespread disenfranchisement and aggravation among citizens. The current protests are seen as a result of long-standing political repression.
• Tito Magotti (Human Rights Lawyer and Activist): Emphasizes the deep-seated grievances of the Tanzanian people, who feel affected by abductions, enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and torture. He highlights the ineffectiveness of criminal justice mechanisms and a general disengagement of citizens from governance due to a lack of voice in parliament, a suppressed civil society, and a non-credible media. He states that Tanzanians feel they are in a territory governed by a few individuals rather than a country.
• Fergus Kell (Research Fellow, Chatham House): Points to the fundamental issues of choice and competition in Tanzanian elections, noting that despite an increase in registered voters since the one-party system, the actual choice available to voters remains limited. He also highlights the constitutional framework, which grants significant power to the executive, including the appointment of high court judges and the national electoral commission, creating an entrenched system that denies people choice and dignity.

The Role of Arrests and Intimidation

Tito Magotti, who was previously jailed, states that the jailing of opposition figures and human rights defenders is a widely used tactic to suppress critical voices, serving as an alternative to disappearance or extrajudicial killing. He cites the detention of Tundu Lissu's vice chairperson on immigration charges as an example of the regime resorting to such tactics under political pressure.

Widespread Nature of Dissatisfaction

Tito Magotti confirms that the dissatisfaction and protests are countrywide, extending from the capital to northern and southern regions, as well as smaller towns and border areas. He describes these outbreaks as a recurring phenomenon where groups find appropriate ways to express their displeasure due to a long period of not being heard. The ongoing internet shutdown further exacerbates the situation, creating a lockdown that restricts movement and access to social services.

External Actors and Authoritarian Solidarity

Nicodemus Mind introduces the concept of "authoritarian solidarity" in East Africa, suggesting that governments in the region may be supporting each other during times of unrest. He points to the arrest and torture of Kenyan and Ugandan activists in Tanzania and allegations of Ugandan military involvement as evidence of this coordination among oppressive governments. He notes that Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania have faced similar challenges related to authoritarian grip, democratic backsliding, and increased repression.

Inherited Repression vs. Current Policies

Fergus Kell argues that while the legacy of former President John Magufuli is significant, President Samia Suluhu Hassan has been in power for over four years and should be judged on her own actions. He notes that many key Magufuli-era officials have been sidelined or shuffled, and new leadership positions have been filled, suggesting that current policies are distinct from her predecessor's. He views the security response as indicative of insecurity and a lack of willingness from the executive to allow dissent.

Constitutional Reform and Access to Justice

• Nicodemus Mind: Believes that cosmetic reforms initiated by President Hassan have not been embedded in a legal framework. He stresses the urgent need for a new constitution to address the "imperial presidency" and the outdated framework that fuels social ills and grievances. He describes the reforms as "reform washing" aimed at consolidating power.
• Tito Magotti: States that mechanisms for victims of human rights violations within Tanzania are currently non-existent. He asserts that the judiciary is controlled by the executive, and the National Human Rights Institute is dysfunctional. He emphasizes that a new constitutional framework and a project to build a "new Tanzania" are necessary to address these critical issues. He highlights the denial of state involvement in abductions and enforced disappearances, citing the difficulty in pursuing habeas corpus writs for missing individuals. The confidence of the people in the justice system is very low.

Regional and International Significance of Tanzania

• Fergus Kell: Explains Tanzania's regional importance due to its history of supporting liberation movements and its strategic location as a gateway to markets in several East and Southern African countries. He notes that current relationships are being tested, citing the South African ANC's cautious response to the Tanzanian elections as an example of external perception. Internationally, Tanzania's growing population (projected to double by 2050, making it the 15th largest globally) makes its governance space increasingly significant.

Future Outlook and Demands

• Nicodemus Mind: Foresees continued protests and grievances, especially given the dissatisfaction with the election results and the questionable voter turnout. He anticipates ongoing resentment due to the imprisoned opposition leader and issues like corruption.
• Tito Magotti: Shares this pessimism, stating that people are determined to express their anger until their demands are met. He notes that even with internet shutdowns, people are organizing and protesting countrywide. The demands include electoral justice, release of illegally detained individuals, a new election management system, a rerun of the election, and even the departure of President Hassan, questioning the justification of killing people to retain political office.
• Fergus Kell: Believes it is difficult to predict the future. He suggests that the sustainability of the current mobilization, potential upcoming triggers like the president's swearing-in ceremony, and the government's response will be crucial. He anticipates a longer-term process for constitutional reform but remains uncertain about its effectiveness given recent events.

Conclusion

The situation in Tanzania is characterized by a disputed election, widespread allegations of human rights abuses, and a deep-seated demand for political and electoral reforms. The government's denials and the implementation of internet shutdowns highlight the challenges in verifying information and the ongoing suppression of dissent. Experts and activists agree that the current constitutional framework is a significant impediment to democratic progress, and a fundamental overhaul is needed to address the grievances of the Tanzanian people. The future remains uncertain, with continued protests and demands for justice anticipated.