What's driving Alberta's surge in tourists?

Key Concepts

• Service Exports: Tourism revenue generated from international visitors, treated as an export of services.
• Staycation: The trend of domestic travelers choosing to vacation within their own country rather than traveling abroad.
• All-Season Resorts: Tourism infrastructure designed to provide year-round activities (e.g., ski-in/ski-out facilities) to maintain consistent visitor numbers.
• Housing Starts: A key economic indicator representing the number of new residential construction projects begun in a given period.
• Petrol Currency: A currency whose value is strongly correlated with the price of oil; Alberta’s current economic landscape shows a decoupling of the Canadian dollar from high oil prices.

1. Alberta’s Tourism Performance

Alberta has emerged as a leader in the Canadian tourism sector, maintaining strong growth from 2025 into 2026.

• Statistics: International visitor numbers surged by over 7% in January. Specifically, American visitors increased by more than 9%, while non-US international arrivals grew by nearly 3%.
• Drivers of Growth:
  • Air Access: Increased direct flights, particularly through Calgary International Airport, are cited as the primary "game-changer."
  • Economic Factors: A lower Canadian dollar makes the province an attractive, affordable destination for international travelers.
  • "Buy Canadian" Movement: Domestic travelers are increasingly opting for local "staycations" rather than traveling to the United States.
  • Diverse Offerings: The province provides a unique combination of outdoor experiences, ranging from the Rocky Mountains and winter sports to the unique landscapes of the Badlands.

2. Infrastructure and Operational Constraints

Despite the growth, the industry faces significant bottlenecks:

• Capacity Issues: High demand has led to shortages in rental cars and hotel rooms, particularly during peak seasons.
• Labor Shortages: Finding qualified staff, especially in rural areas, remains a persistent challenge for tourism operators.
• Strategic Development: To compete with British Columbia, Alberta is focusing on developing "all-season resorts" (e.g., Kananaskis, Fortress Mountain) to ensure year-round utility and prevent domestic tourists from leaving the province for better facilities.

3. Restaurant Industry Dynamics

The restaurant sector is experiencing a "mixed bag" scenario:

• Positive Trends: Increased tourism and a renewed consumer appetite for social dining have boosted sales.
• Negative Pressures: Significant increases in food costs have squeezed profit margins, and labor shortages continue to hinder operations.

4. Housing Market and Airbnb

Mark Parsons, VP and Chief Economist at ATB Financial, addressed concerns regarding short-term rentals and housing:

• Airbnb Impact: While often cited as a threat to housing supply, Airbnb represents a relatively small portion of the Calgary market.
• Supply Response: Record-level housing starts in 2025 have successfully increased supply. This has led to a cooling in the resale market and a year-over-year decline in rents.
• Market Segmentation: The current "oversupply" concern is largely isolated to the condo/multi-family market rather than single-family homes. Strong population growth from other parts of Canada continues to provide a "floor" for housing demand.

5. Tourism as a Strategic Economic Tool

A key argument presented is that tourism should be viewed as a vital component of Canada’s export strategy:

• Service Exports: International tourism revenue is classified as a service export. Parsons argues that increasing overseas tourism is a viable, underutilized strategy to help meet the national goal of doubling non-US exports over the next decade.
• National Context: While Alberta is thriving, the rest of Canada is still experiencing a "COVID hangover," with non-resident visitor numbers remaining below pre-pandemic levels.

Synthesis and Conclusion

Alberta’s tourism success is a result of improved air connectivity, a favorable exchange rate, and a diverse natural product. While the province faces infrastructure and labor constraints, it is proactively addressing these through resort development and increased housing supply. Ultimately, the province serves as a model for how tourism can be leveraged as a significant "service export" to bolster the broader Canadian economy, provided that infrastructure capacity keeps pace with rising demand.