What role does the former British prime minister play in Trump's peace plan? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Gaza deal
• Ceasefire
• Hostage release
• Israeli withdrawal
• Governing authority in Gaza (excluding Hamas)
• Two-state solution
• Abraham Accords
• Normalization deals
• Transitional authority
• Palestinian leadership

Analysis of Trump's Confidence in a Gaza Deal

• Cautious Optimism: Yosi Mikkelberg expresses cautious optimism regarding Trump's confidence in a Gaza deal, citing previous "false dawns."
• Positive Signs: He acknowledges positive developments like the meeting with Arab and Muslim countries, a shift in rhetoric towards no annexation of the West Bank, and a stronger commitment to a ceasefire.
• Conflicting Signals: Mikkelberg points out conflicting signals, referencing Trump's UN General Assembly speech (which was very different) and Netanyahu's speech, which was "a mix between on the one very defensive but also very militant."
• Crucial Meeting: The upcoming meeting on Monday is deemed "crucial" as its outcome could define the next weeks, months, and potentially the end of the war.

Potential Role of Tony Blair in Post-War Gaza

• Blair's Involvement: Tony Blair has been working on plans related to the humanitarian side and ending the war since its beginning and is now positioning himself to be active in post-war Gaza.
• Trump-Blair Relationship: Blair has close ties with President Trump, potentially influencing Trump's initial plans, which included the "expulsion force displacement of probably two million Gazin."
• Support and Reservations: While Blair's experience and gravitas might garner support, especially from Gulf states, some Palestinian leaders have reservations.
• Checkered Past: Blair's involvement in the Iraq War and his lack of progress as a special envoy in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process raise concerns.
• Alternative Perspective: Mikkelberg suggests that someone from the region, serving for a limited time before handing over to new Palestinian leadership, might be a better option. The worry is that an interim solution becomes permanent.

Viability of the 21-Point Plan

• Direction: The 21-point plan aims to end the war, secure the release of hostages, allow more humanitarian aid, ensure peacekeeping forces for a long-term ceasefire, and establish new governance in Gaza.
• Long-Term Goal: The long-term goal should be a two-state solution, integrating Gaza and the West Bank into the same political system.
• Netanyahu's Opposition: Netanyahu's exclusion of a two-state solution in his UN speech poses a significant challenge.

Sarah Jükis's Perspective on the Gaza Deal

• Skepticism: Sarah Jükis expresses skepticism about Trump's claims of a deal being close, noting that similar claims have not materialized in the past.
• Netanyahu's Stance: Netanyahu's insistence on eradicating Hamas and his opposition to a Palestinian state until Hamas is gone contradict the notion of an imminent deal.
• Importance of Direct Involvement: The absence of Hamas and Israel from the negotiation table raises concerns about the deal's viability.
• Comprehensive but Risky Framework: The 21-point plan is comprehensive but carries the risk of falling apart due to its phased approach.
• Arab States' Role: Arab states' support is crucial for implementing the plan.
• Netanyahu's Incentives: Netanyahu has an incentive to prolong the war for his political survival, potentially using alleged violations by Hamas as an excuse to abandon the deal.

Impact on Abraham Accords

• Trump's Achievement: The Abraham Accords were a key foreign policy achievement for Trump, and their potential collapse puts pressure on him.
• Motivation: Trump is motivated to preserve and expand the Abraham Accords and to pursue a Nobel Peace Prize.

International Transitional Authority

• Blair's Potential Role: Tony Blair's inclusion is interesting, given his past role with the Quartet and his track record.
• Need for Palestinian Leadership: Palestinians need Palestinian leadership to move towards a functioning Palestinian state.
• New Leadership: New Palestinian leadership, distinct from Mahmud Abbas, is needed.
• Legitimacy Concerns: While Blair might have the support of Arab states and the US, his legitimacy among Palestinians is questionable. He is seen as a relic.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The possibility of a Gaza deal remains uncertain, with conflicting signals and significant obstacles. While Trump expresses confidence, the stances of key players like Netanyahu and the absence of direct negotiations between Hamas and Israel raise doubts. The proposed 21-point plan is comprehensive but faces the risk of collapsing due to its phased approach and Netanyahu's potential incentives to prolong the conflict. The involvement of Tony Blair as a transitional authority is debated, with concerns about his legitimacy among Palestinians and the need for new Palestinian leadership. The potential collapse of the Abraham Accords adds further pressure on Trump. Ultimately, the success of any deal hinges on addressing the core issues of Palestinian leadership, long-term governance, and the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.