What leverage does Germany have on Israel to demand changes? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Gaza ceasefire talks
• Humanitarian crisis in Gaza
• Israeli settler violence in the West Bank
• Recognition of Palestinian statehood
• Germany's stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
• Diplomatic isolation of Israel
• German-Israeli relations
• Forced expulsions and annexation
• Airdrops of aid
• Land crossings into Gaza

1. US and German Diplomatic Efforts:

• Steve Whit (US Envoy): The US president's Middle East envoy, Steve Whit, is in Israel to revive Gaza ceasefire talks. He plans to visit a US and Israeli-backed food distribution site in the Palestinian territory. He is also scheduled to travel to Russia.
• Johan Vaful (German Foreign Minister): Vaful is in Israel and plans to visit the Israeli-occupied West Bank to meet with Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas. He aims to discuss Israeli settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. He has held talks with senior Israeli politicians to revive a ceasefire with Hamas and prevent Israel's diplomatic isolation.

2. International Pressure for Palestinian Statehood:

• France, Britain, and Canada are prepared to recognize Palestinian statehood under certain conditions.
• Vaful stated that Germany will not follow suit but seeks assurances from Israel against forced expulsions or active annexation.
• Vaful: "We need clarity also from Israel that there will be no policy of forced expulsions or active annexation. In my assessment, we are in a decisive phase where Germany must take a clear stance."

3. Germany's Position and Internal Debate:

• Vaful aims to prevent a rift between the EU and Israel, acknowledging the existing danger.
• Tanya Kma reported that Vaful's visit caused controversy due to speculation about a major policy shift by Germany, responding to unilateral steps taken by Israel.
• Israeli Minister for National Security Itama Benguier made an inflammatory tweet accusing Germany of returning to support Nazism.
• Vaful clarified that Germany will not recognize the Palestinian state in September but wants negotiations to take place soon.
• He reiterated that Israel must address the dire humanitarian situation and starvation in Gaza but did not specify what steps Germany would take.
• Pressure is mounting on the German government from international partners (UK, France) and internally from NGOs, opposition parties, and even the Social Democrats (part of the ruling coalition) to take stronger action towards Israel.

4. Significance of Vaful's Visit:

• Julia Sardelli stated that Vaful believes this could be a turning point in Israel and Germany's role.
• If Israel does not alleviate the humanitarian situation in Gaza, stop annexation talks, and prevent settler violence, Germany might move beyond criticism and take action.
• Vaful called the humanitarian situation in Gaza "beyond imagination" and emphasized that Israel needed to show it was not enacting a policy of expulsion and annexation.

5. Germany's Leverage and Aid Efforts:

• Germany is one of Israel's staunchest allies and a major arms supplier but lacks the political weight of the United States.
• The German government will join airdrops over Gaza, but Vaful acknowledged that this is not the solution and called on Israel to open land crossings.
• The need for airdrops indicates a lack of leverage over Israel to open land crossings for aid.

6. Germany's Potential Mediation Role:

• Julia Sardelli suggested that Vaful's trip is a "last-ditch effort" to use Germany's special relationship with Israel to convince the Israeli government to improve the situation in Gaza and end the conflict.
• Vaful believes his pleas have been heard, but the next few days will determine if that is the case.
• Israel is becoming increasingly isolated, and Germany does not want to be isolated with it or lose its closeness to its allies in Europe.
• Unless Germany sees a clear signal from the Israeli government soon, it may move beyond a mediator role and take a stronger stance.

7. Conclusion:

The situation is at a critical juncture, with international pressure mounting on Israel to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and halt actions seen as detrimental to a two-state solution. Germany, a key ally of Israel, is facing increasing pressure to take a more assertive stance. Vaful's visit represents a crucial attempt to leverage Germany's relationship with Israel to effect change, but the success of this effort remains uncertain. The coming days will be decisive in determining whether Germany will adopt a stronger position and potentially distance itself from Israel's current policies.