What level of military and political support can Russia provide to the Maduro regime? | DW News

Key Concepts

• US Military Buildup: Increased US military presence off the coast of Venezuela.
• Naroterrorism: The Trump administration's label for alleged drug smuggling by Venezuelan vessels.
• Regime Change: The alleged primary objective of the US action, rather than counternarcotics.
• Russia's Role: Venezuela's traditional ally, potentially asked for military assistance.
• Geopolitical Gem: Venezuela's strategic importance for Russia in South America.
• US-Imposed Regime Change: Concerns about the potential negative consequences of US intervention.
• Opposition Mandate: The need for a strong mandate for a democratic transition in Venezuela.
• Complex Security Situation: The presence of corrupt military, armed groups, and criminal organizations in Venezuela.
• Humanitarian and Political Crisis: The ongoing decade-long crisis in Venezuela.
• China's Position: Expressed concern but unclear commitment to supporting Venezuela.
• Neighboring Countries' Stance: Mixed reactions from Brazil and Colombia, with Cuba and Nicaragua offering full support.
• Venezuelan Public Perception: Feelings of helplessness, fear, and repression.

US Military Buildup and Allegations of Naroterrorism

The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Venezuela's left-wing authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro. This includes striking Venezuelan vessels accused of drug smuggling and increasing the US military presence off the coast of Venezuela. The White House claims this buildup is to protect the US from "naroterrorists." However, skeptics suggest that President Trump's true objective is regime change in Venezuela.

Venezuela's Appeal to Russia for Military Aid

Nicolás Maduro is reportedly seeking assistance from his traditional ally, Russia, to counter potential US invasion. Reports indicate that talks have involved missiles, defense radars, and aircraft repairs. While Russia denies receiving any such request, its foreign ministry has publicly supported Maduro, stating, "Russia has demonstrated unwavering solidarity with Venezuela and is ready to respond to Caracas' appeal, taking into account existing and potential challenges."

Historical Russian Military Involvement in Venezuela

Moscow has previously intervened to bolster Venezuela's defense. In 2019, Russian military personnel were brought to Caracas via aircraft, a move that Vladimir Ruinsky of the ICC University in Colombia suggests may have prevented a US invasion at that time. Ruinsky notes that in 2019, when Trump vowed to remove Maduro, "Moscow effectively came to Maduro's rescue," forcing the US to engage in direct discussions with Russia about a Latin American situation for the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Shifting Russia-Venezuela Ties and Russia's Current Stance

Despite past cooperation, including billions of dollars in weapons sales and collaboration in the international oil market during the 2000s and early 2010s, ties have degraded since Maduro took office. Russia's investments have reportedly fallen apart, with much of the equipment being unusable, stolen, or lacking maintenance specialists. Consequently, the Kremlin shows "little interest in offering anything beyond verbal support." Russia's foreign ministry denies any possibility of military aid, and state media emphasizes that Venezuela is "on its own in its fight."

Reasons for Russia's Limited Support

Vladimir Ruinsky believes Russia is unlikely to provide aid due to its focus on the war in Ukraine and the more serious intentions of Washington this time. He argues that the current US deployment is "massive," and sending a few dozen "military technical specialists," as Russia terms them, "won't make any real difference." However, he suggests that if Maduro were to flee Venezuela, he could likely find a safe haven in Moscow.

Expert Assessment of Russia's Support

Roxanna Vigil, a security analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations specializing in Latin America, assesses that while Venezuela has turned to Russia as a key ally due to isolation and US sanctions, this relationship has largely remained at the "level of rhetoric." She points out that Russia's past investments and loans to Venezuela have yielded poor returns, making it difficult to envision Russia increasing military cooperation. Vigil concludes that Russia's support will likely remain at the diplomatic level.

US Intentions and Potential for Kinetic Action

Vigil believes President Trump's statements about considering "land strikes" are a "serious concern and serious option." She highlights the lack of a clearly articulated end goal from the Trump administration, which has described the mission as counternarcotics. However, the scale of the naval deployment, the rhetoric against Maduro, the indictment against him, the increased bounty, and the designation of the "cartel de los soles" as a foreign terrorist organization allegedly headed by Maduro, all point towards a broader objective.

Concerns Regarding US-Imposed Regime Change

Vigil presumes that the end goal is regime change. While Venezuelan opposition leaders welcome US intervention and are ready to take over, she warns that a US military regime change would be a "mistake." She argues it would weaken the opposition, which currently has popular support and claims military backing. Vigil cites a "long history of US-backed regime change going poorly" and emphasizes that the opposition needs a strong mandate for a transition to democracy, which a US-imposed change would not provide.

Complex Security and Humanitarian Challenges in Venezuela

Vigil outlines the severe security problems in Venezuela, including a corrupt military involved in drug trafficking, numerous armed groups along the Colombian border, criminal groups, and prison gangs. This, combined with the ongoing humanitarian and political crisis, suggests that a US-imposed regime change would not lead to a "smooth day after."

Russia's Geopolitical Motivations and Venezuela's Oil Sector

DW correspondent Oscar Schlanka notes that Russia is more cautious in its support for Maduro compared to the past, possibly due to its own negotiations with the Trump administration. However, he points to a public letter from Putin to Maduro expressing "unwavering support" for their strategic partnership. Schlanka explains that Venezuela is a "geopolitical gem" for Russia, serving as a platform for regional presence and access to other South American countries, especially after the US withdrawal. Regarding oil production, Russia views Venezuela more as a competitor than a commercial partner, and having a regional presence gives it an advantage.

Other Potential Foreign Partners for Venezuela

Schlanka indicates that China has expressed concern over the US military deployment but its commitment to supporting Venezuela is unclear. He also mentions that Brazil's President Lula has voiced concerns about a US invasion and plans to discuss it with Trump, though he has also criticized Maduro. Colombia's president also opposes a US attack but does not support Maduro. Only Cuba and Nicaragua have offered "total support" for Maduro.

Venezuelan Public's Perspective and Fear

Oscar Schlanka reports that many Venezuelans feel "helpless" and caught between an authoritarian regime and a superpower that has shown little sympathy towards Venezuelan immigrants. There is "real fear" in Venezuela as pressure mounts on Maduro, leading to increased repression and violence against the opposition, journalists, and even social media comments. The unpredictability of the Trump administration has also put everyone on edge, with commercial flights to Venezuela being suspended, causing further nervousness about potential military strikes or a deal between Trump and Maduro.