What Labor and the Coalition are promising on migration | 7.30

Key Concepts:

• UK-Australia Free Trade Deal
• Working Holiday Visas
• Bilateral Agreements
• Net Overseas Migration (NOM)
• Permanent Migration
• Temporary Migration
• Visa Backlogs (Partner Visas)
• Housing Affordability
• Guest Worker System

1. UK-Australia Free Trade Deal and Working Holiday Visas:

• The UK-Australia Free Trade Deal includes provisions for easier access for British backpackers to work in Australia.
• Australia agreed to allow British backpackers to stay for up to 3 years on working holiday visas.
• There are approximately 55,000 UK working holiday makers currently in Australia.

2. Bilateral Agreements and Migration Control:

• Australia has around 59 bilateral agreements covering the movement of people.
• 18 of these agreements were added during the previous coalition government's term.
• These agreements complicate efforts to reduce migration numbers, as doing so could breach international commitments.
• Example: Reducing working holiday visas from the US, Germany, France, or Japan would violate existing agreements.

3. Composition of Migration Numbers:

• Temporary visas (international students, working holiday makers, temporary skilled workers) significantly contribute to overall migration numbers.
• These numbers are less directly controlled by the government compared to permanent migration.
• As long as there is a place to study, a bilateral agreement, or an employer sponsor, individuals can stay in Australia for several years.

4. Fluctuations in Net Overseas Migration (NOM):

• Pre-COVID-19 (2019): Government forecast NOM at 270,000 per annum.
• During COVID-19: NOM fell sharply.
• Post-COVID-19: The coalition government "stomped on the immigration accelerator," leading to a surge in NOM to over 500,000.
• Recent figures: NOM declined to 445,000 last financial year, projected to be 335,000 this year, and forecast at 260,000 next year by Treasury.
• The surge was driven by temporary migrants, particularly students, returning after borders reopened, encouraged by Morrison-era policies.
• In the first two years after reopening, the government brought in a million people through the migration program, 70% more than any previous two-year period.

5. Government Targets and Political Pledges:

• The most recent target for annual permanent migration was 185,000.
• The Albanese government trimmed the permanent migration target from 190,000 to 185,000.
• The Labor government aims to reduce NOM to 260,000 by 2025-26.
• Peter Dutton (opposition) has proposed a NOM target of 160,000, considered "just about impossible" by some.
• Both sides of politics have pledged to cut migration.

6. Challenges in Cutting Migration Numbers:

• Cutting permanent migration is difficult due to the uncapped family stream, particularly partner visas.
• The backlog of partner visas is growing, expected to exceed 90,000 by the end of the financial year.
• It is politically challenging to delay partner visas for Australian citizens or residents.
• Peter Dutton has not specified which visa classes would be cut, indicating he will wait until after the election.

7. Public Sentiment and Housing Affordability:

• Public sentiment has shifted against migration, with 49% now wanting fewer migrants (according to ABC's Vote Compass).
• A housing crisis is a major factor driving this shift.
• "In the last three years we've hit this realization that housing is unaffordable and that's a real problem uh and unfortunately uh that's put migration in the crosshairs in terms of a policy solution whereas actually it's not the best policy solution if you want to tackle housing cost the best way to tackle housing cost is to build more homes"
• Analysts argue that the local population has a greater impact on housing prices than migrants.
• Notable people are more likely to buy homes, have access to credit, and receive family financial assistance.

8. Shift from Permanent to Temporary Migration:

• Over the past 20 years, Australia has shifted from mainly permanent migration to temporary arrivals.
• This shift affects the type of housing in demand (more rentals, cheaper accommodation).
• It also has social implications due to the large number of people living in Australia without the prospect of permanent settlement.

9. The "Guest Worker System" and Social Integration:

• Australia historically avoided a "guest worker system," integrating migrants as "new Australians" with full rights and participation in society.
• A move towards a more temporary or guest worker system could undermine this integration.
• "One of the things that Australia did really well in the 80s and 90s compared to say parts of Europe is that we didn't run a guest worker system we when people moved to Australia they were new Australians um so it meant that they were not only working in jobs where they were needed but they were raising their family and integrating into the community with the confidence that they had the right to vote they uh they were able to participate fully in the community uh and in public life um a move towards a more you know temporary or or guest worker system it it it loses that"

10. Economic Benefits of Migration:

• Migration has been an "absolute economic boon" for Australia, contributing to GDP and shaping the fabric of society.
• "We spend a lot of time talking about you know the things we dig out of the ground but really migration has been an absolute economic boon for Australia um but not just economic in a kind of like numbers in a GDP sense it is the fabric of our society"

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The video discusses the complexities of migration policy in Australia, highlighting the interplay between international agreements, government targets, public sentiment, and economic factors. While there's political pressure to cut migration, driven partly by concerns about housing affordability, the actual numbers are not drastically different from pre-pandemic levels. The shift towards temporary migration and the potential for a "guest worker system" raise concerns about social integration. The video emphasizes the historical and ongoing economic benefits of migration to Australia.