What it tells us that Russia is sending low-ranking diplomats to the ceasefire talks | DW News

Key Concepts

• Negotiation, Ceasefire, Shuttle Diplomacy, Power Struggle, Sanctions, Military Operations, Mediator vs. Negotiation Partner, Putin's Inner Circle, Actions vs. Words, Unconditional Ceasefire, Frozen Conflict, Grain Deal, Black Sea Ceasefire.

Analysis of Saudi Arabia Talks and Potential Ceasefire

Skepticism Regarding Russia's Intentions

• The discussion begins with skepticism about Russia's genuine interest in a ceasefire, despite ongoing talks in Saudi Arabia.
• Kira Rudik (Ukrainian Parliament) expresses doubt, citing continued Russian attacks, including one on a school in Sumi, injuring at least 30 people. She states, "we are skeptical because as of right now we haven't seen any single fact that would support that Russia is ready for the peace."
• Jonathan Katz (Brookings Institution) notes previous failed ceasefire attempts and suggests Putin believes he has the upper hand, especially with perceived alignment from some in the US.

The Role of the United States

• The US's role is debated, with some questioning its neutrality.
• Matia Shanana (Negotiations Expert) argues the US is not a mediator but a "negotiation partner" with its own interests, using power in the process. He says, "as a mediator you're neutral... America is from my perspective not a not a mediator they are a negotiation partner because they have their own interest."
• Katz suggests the current US administration has weakened national security infrastructure and echoes Kremlin talking points, raising concerns about its position. He mentions instances of the US president belittling President Zelensky, cutting off assistance and intelligence to Ukraine.

Negotiation Strategies and Challenges

• Shanana emphasizes the importance of "reading between the lines" and finding new approaches in negotiations. He describes "shuttle diplomacy" where proposals are passed between parties to find common ground.
• A key challenge is Putin's negotiation tactics, including presenting new demands and sending low-level diplomats without the authority to make real decisions. Shanana states, "the best way to avoid an agreement is to come up with new demands."
• Shanana argues that the Saudi Arabia talks are "pointless" and "dangerous" because they are premature and could lead to a loss of face for involved parties.

Power Dynamics and Potential Levers

• The discussion highlights the power struggle at play and the need for the US to exert influence.
• Shanana suggests potential "power signals" the US could send, such as military operations or increased sanctions.
• Rudik suggests pressure on Russia through sanctions, limitations on the "Shadow Fleet," and leveraging countries like India and China.

The Importance of Actions Over Words

• A recurring theme is the discrepancy between Putin's words and actions.
• Shanana emphasizes that "actions speak louder than words" and that Putin's actions indicate he doesn't want an agreement.
• Katz points out that Russia continued to attack Ukraine even after agreeing to a plan on March 11th, demonstrating a lack of seriousness about an agreement.

Post-Ceasefire Considerations

• The discussion touches on the need for a long-term strategy beyond a ceasefire.
• Katz stresses the importance of the US being an integral partner in maintaining any ceasefire and providing security guarantees to Ukraine, as Moscow cannot be trusted.
• Rudik highlights the negative experience of previous "ceasefire agreements" with Russia, which led to a "frozen conflict" and allowed Russia to strengthen its forces.

Black Sea Ceasefire

• The potential for a ceasefire in the Black Sea to allow free passage of shipping is discussed.
• Rudik suggests Russia may need this deal more than Ukraine, as Ukraine has been able to export grains with military protection.

Conclusion

The experts express significant skepticism about the likelihood of the Saudi Arabia talks leading to a genuine and lasting ceasefire in Ukraine. They highlight Russia's continued aggression, Putin's negotiation tactics, and concerns about the US's role and influence. The discussion emphasizes the need for a comprehensive strategy beyond a simple ceasefire, including security guarantees for Ukraine and sustained pressure on Russia through various means. The importance of focusing on Russia's actions rather than its words is a key takeaway.