What Israel's attacks mean for Syria's new government | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Ceasefire in Sueda province
• Syrian President Ahmed al-Shara
• Drews and Bedouin fighters
• Israeli intervention and airstrikes
• Protection of minorities
• Sectarian-based regime
• Lack of trust in the central government
• Inclusiveness and integration of opposition forces

Ceasefire Announcement and Initial Reactions:

• Syrian President Ahmed al-Shara announced an immediate ceasefire in the Sueda province due to ongoing clashes between Drews fighters and Bedouin fighters.
• The announcement was followed by a speech condemning Israeli intervention, specifically airstrikes targeting government buildings and forces in the south. Israel claimed these strikes were to protect the Drews minority.
• The Syrian president stated that government forces have entered parts of Sueda to maintain order and protect civilians.
• It is uncertain whether local factions (Drews minority, armed factions) and Bedouin forces will comply with the ceasefire, as a previous ceasefire had collapsed.

Israeli Intervention and Syrian Government's Response:

• Israel has conducted airstrikes in Syria since December, claiming to prevent military resources from falling into the hands of Islamists (HTS).
• Many Syrians feel that Israel has control over their airspace due to the Syrian government's lack of response to these airstrikes.
• The Syrian president has adopted a de-escalatory tone, calling on regional powers to de-escalate the situation and stating that Syria does not want to enter into a conflict.
• A separate ceasefire brokered by the United States between Syria and Israel was announced, aiming to end Israeli intervention.
• The lack of response to Israeli airstrikes has led to a perception that the Syrian government is not in control of its territory.

Analysis of the Ceasefire and President Al-Shara's Standing:

• Fawaz Geres (London School of Economics) doubts that Drews and Bedouin fighters will lay down their arms due to a lack of trust in the new government in Damascus.
• The Drews community does not have faith in the central government and is unlikely to integrate without major reassurances and guarantees of a role in the political system.
• President Al-Shara's vision of unity is being tested, and there is a divide between his words and actions.
• According to many Syrians, Al-Shara has built a sectarian-based regime in Damascus, where minorities do not feel they have a stake.
• Al-Shara has allegedly monopolized power, excluding minorities (Drews, Alawites, Kurds) and the Sunni-based opposition from the political system.
• Without a broadly based government in Damascus, Syria could face a systemic crisis and major turmoil.

Pathways to Winning Trust and Achieving Inclusiveness:

• Al-Shara could win the trust of the Syrian people by listening to their aspirations, hopes, and fears.
• Syria is deeply scarred and splintered due to 13 years of war, and Syrians are calling for a new political order that includes diverse communities.
• Al-Shara needs to integrate the institutionalized opposition, including minorities and the Sunni-based opposition, into the government.
• Without an inclusive system, Al-Shara's words will fall on deaf ears.
• It remains to be seen whether Al-Shara will begin a new process of inclusiveness and integrate various communities and political persuasions into the new government.

Technical Terms and Concepts:

• HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham): An Islamist armed group with roots in the current Syrian government.
• Sectarian-based regime: A government system that favors a particular religious or ethnic group, excluding others.
• Institutionalized opposition: Organized political groups and movements that are formally recognized and participate in the political process.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The immediate ceasefire in Sueda province, while a welcome development, faces significant challenges due to deep-seated distrust and the perception of a sectarian-based regime under President Al-Shara. The Israeli intervention further complicates the situation, raising questions about Syrian sovereignty. The key to long-term stability lies in Al-Shara's ability to build trust by genuinely integrating diverse communities and opposition forces into a more inclusive political system. Without concrete actions to address the concerns of minorities and the broader Syrian population, the ceasefire may prove to be another temporary measure in a country facing a systemic crisis.