What is behind the Saudi-UAE rupture in Yemen? | Inside Story

Yemen Conflict: UAE Withdrawal & Regional Tensions – Inside Story Summary

Key Concepts:

• Southern Transitional Council (STC): A Yemeni separatist movement seeking independence for South Yemen, backed by the UAE.
• Houthis: An armed group that controls much of Yemen, opposed by the Saudi-led coalition.
• Saudi-UAE Coalition: A military alliance formed in 2015 to fight the Houthis in Yemen, now fractured by competing interests.
• Arab Axis of Secessionists: A network of UAE-backed groups pursuing separatist agendas across the region (Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen).
• National Security Red Lines: Boundaries established by Saudi Arabia regarding Yemen’s territorial integrity and regional stability.
• Hadramout & Al-Mahra: Southern Yemeni governorates rich in oil and strategically important due to their proximity to Saudi Arabia, recently seized by the STC.
• Babel Mandab Strait & Red Sea: Crucial shipping lanes whose stability is threatened by the conflict in Yemen.

1. Background & Escalation of Conflict

The conflict in Yemen began over a decade ago with the Houthi takeover of large parts of the country. Initially, Saudi Arabia and the UAE formed a coalition to combat the Houthis. However, the UAE shifted its focus to supporting and arming the Southern Transitional Council (STC) with the aim of establishing a separate South Yemen, a state that existed before Yemen’s unification in 1990. This move was perceived by Saudi Arabia as a threat to its national security, leading to tensions and ultimately, the recent ultimatum for the UAE to withdraw its forces. The STC’s recent advances in Hadramout and Al-Mahra, areas containing strategic ports and oil reserves bordering Saudi Arabia, proved to be the breaking point. Saudi Arabia responded with a strike on a port in Mukala, alleging it was being used by the UAE to supply weapons to the STC.

2. UAE Withdrawal & Saudi Demands

Following a 24-hour notice from the Saudi-backed Yemeni Presidential Council, the UAE agreed to withdraw its remaining troops from Yemen. However, the UAE has not committed to ceasing its financial support for the STC, which continues to pursue its goal of southern independence. Saudi Arabia views the STC’s actions as crossing “red lines” and disrupting the agreed-upon political framework for Yemen. The Saudi response was described as “methodical” and aimed at signaling its firm stance on maintaining Yemen’s territorial integrity.

3. Perspectives on the Conflict

• Abdul Aziz Algashan (Saudi Perspective): The situation has been simmering for some time, and Saudi Arabia’s response was a necessary measure to protect its national security. He emphasized the importance of a unified Yemen and a return to the agreed-upon political framework. He acknowledged the legitimacy of the Southern cause but stressed the need for a political solution.
• Alhada Sulaman (STC Perspective): The STC represents the genuine aspirations of the Southern Yemeni people for self-determination and independence, a movement predating the UAE’s involvement. He portrayed the UAE-STC partnership as beneficial, having liberated areas from Houthi control and dismantled extremist cells. He also claimed coordination with Saudi Arabia.
• Andreas Krie (International Relations Perspective): The conflict is part of a broader regional power struggle, with the UAE building an “axis of secessionists” across the Middle East and North Africa, challenging Saudi Arabia’s influence. He highlighted the importance of a unified Yemen for regional stability and warned that a fragmented Yemen would benefit the Houthis and destabilize the Arabian Peninsula. He advocated for a national dialogue involving all parties, including the Houthis, facilitated by Oman.

4. Military Developments & Regional Implications

The STC’s recent military operation in Hadramout and Al-Mahra was justified by the STC as a response to local calls for intervention against corruption and illicit activities. However, Saudi Arabia viewed it as a violation of the political framework and a threat to its security. The conflict extends beyond Yemen, with the UAE also supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, a group opposed by Saudi Arabia. This creates a situation where Saudi Arabia and the UAE are on opposing sides in multiple conflicts, exacerbating regional tensions.

5. International Community & Future Outlook

The international community generally favors a unified Yemen with territorial integrity. The UAE’s separatist agenda is largely isolated, with Israel being a notable exception. The US and UK are primarily focused on combating the Houthis but recognize the importance of a unified Yemen for regional stability. Andreas Krie suggests that Saudi Arabia, with its convening power, should lead efforts to facilitate a national dialogue and negotiate a sustainable solution for Yemen.

6. Notable Quotes

• Andreas Krie: “The Emirati are building an axis that is trying to exclude Saudi Arabia.”
• Abdul Aziz Algashan: “Saudi Arabia’s response was a necessary measure to protect its national security.”
• Alhada Sulaman: “STC has been a major component and a viable partner to the legitimate government while upholding their goals and their uh demands by by upholding the people's aspirations which is to gain their uh self-determination and independence.”

7. Data & Statistics

• Hadramout and Al-Mahra contain approximately 80% of Yemen’s oil wealth.
• Yemen’s unification occurred in 1990, lasting until 2014.
• The UAE has been actively supporting separatist movements in Libya, Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen.

8. Logical Connections

The report establishes a clear connection between the initial coalition against the Houthis, the UAE’s subsequent pursuit of its own interests through the STC, the escalating tensions with Saudi Arabia, and the recent UAE withdrawal. It demonstrates how the conflict in Yemen is intertwined with broader regional power dynamics and the UAE’s expansionist foreign policy.

Conclusion:

The UAE’s withdrawal from Yemen marks a significant escalation in the regional power struggle between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. While the withdrawal may temporarily de-escalate the immediate situation, the underlying tensions remain. The future of Yemen hinges on whether Saudi Arabia can leverage its influence to facilitate a national dialogue and forge a path towards a unified and stable country, or whether the pursuit of separatist agendas will continue to fuel conflict and instability. The situation is further complicated by the UAE’s broader regional strategy and the involvement of other international actors. The stability of the Red Sea and Babel Mandab Strait, crucial for global shipping, remains at risk.