What India's welcoming ceremony for Putin says about Indian-Russian relations | DW News

Key Concepts

• Strategic Autonomy: India's policy of maintaining independence in foreign policy decisions, not aligning strictly with any single global power bloc.
• Multipolar World Order: A global system where power is distributed among multiple major poles or centers of influence, as opposed to a unipolar (one dominant power) or bipolar (two dominant powers) system.
• Sanctions: Penalties imposed by countries or international bodies on other countries, typically for political or economic reasons. In this context, sanctions are imposed by the US and UK on Russian oil companies.
• Secondary Sanctions: Sanctions imposed by a country on entities that do business with sanctioned countries or entities.
• "Not Neutral, but on the Side of Peace": India's stated position on the Ukraine war, emphasizing its commitment to peace and negotiation rather than taking sides in the conflict.
• "This is Not an Era of War": A notable quote from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reflecting India's stance on the Ukraine conflict.
• "Optics": The public perception or appearance of an event or situation, often used in the context of propaganda.

India-Russia Relations: A Time-Tested Bond Amidst Geopolitical Shifts

This summary details the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to New Delhi for talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, focusing on strengthening economic cooperation amidst a complex geopolitical landscape. The visit marks Putin's first trip to India since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Warm Welcome and Enduring Ties

• Ceremonial Reception: President Putin received a "very warm, very ceremonial welcome" in India, indicative of a "display of bonhomie" and a "cordial warm relationship."
• Time-Tested Relationship: The ties between India and Russia are described as "time-tested," having "survived many storms," including the war in Ukraine.
• Reliable Partner: India views Russia as its "steadiest relationship," a "very reliable partner" that has been supportive from an "early stage," even when other countries were not.
• Strategic Autonomy: A key driver for India's continued engagement with Russia is its commitment to guarding its "strategic autonomy" and its vision of a "multipolar world," not solely a US-led Western order.

Economic Cooperation and Oil Trade

• Putin's Objectives: President Putin aims to increase sales of Russian oil, missile systems, and fighter jets to India.
• Oil as a Key Issue: The visit is critical for Russia as India is its "second biggest oil customer." The potential impact of new US and British sanctions on Russian oil companies is a significant concern.
• Discounted Oil and India's Economy: Putin emphasizes that "discounted Russian oil has helped fuel what he calls India's economic boom."
• Future of Oil Cooperation: The future of India-Russia oil cooperation hinges on two factors:
  1. India's willingness to "dodge the sanctions" and continue purchasing Russian oil.
  2. The extent to which the US "closely polices those sanctions."
• US Tariffs: India is also seeking to address "massive tariffs of 50%" imposed by the United States due to its continued purchase of Russian crude oil. These tariffs are expected to impact bilateral trade, especially with new EU secondary sanctions taking effect on January 1st.

India's Stance on the Ukraine War

• "Not Neutral, but on the Side of Peace": Prime Minister Modi stated that India is "not neutral" but "on the side of peace," a position consistent with his previous statements.
• Avoiding Taking Sides: Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, India has "chosen not to take sides," urging "both sides to come to the negotiating table."
• "This is Not an Era of War": This quote from Modi in the summer of 2022 encapsulates India's approach.
• Counter-Narratives: Many in India point to past wars involving US and Western troops (Iraq, Afghanistan) and follow a narrative that NATO's eastward expansion provoked the war in Ukraine.
• Media Portrayal: Current media reporting around the visit largely omits mentions of alleged Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

Putin's Propagandistic Goals

• Propagandistic Success: The visit is considered a "success for Putin, at least a propagandistic success," providing "optics" of him being welcomed in a country that does not strongly condemn his actions.
• Russian State Media Narrative: Russian state media is leveraging the visit to show viewers in Russia and abroad that Putin is still "liked abroad" and is "doing the right thing."
• Driving a Wedge: A key propagandistic goal for Putin is to "drive a wedge between India and the West." He subtly hints that "some might not be happy about this success," clearly referencing the West.
• "Only Russia is India's True Friend": This is interpreted as Putin's underlying message, emphasizing Russia's perceived loyalty to India.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• India's Balancing Act: India is engaged in a "delicate balancing act," maintaining close ties with Russia while simultaneously negotiating trade agreements with the EU and the United States.
• Russia's Perspective (Sergey Satanovski): The visit is crucial for Russia to gauge India's reaction to new sanctions and to secure continued oil trade, which is vital for its economy. Putin aims to project an image of international support and to sow discord between India and Western nations.
• India's Perspective (Sandra Petersman): India values its long-standing relationship with Russia, its strategic autonomy, and its vision of a multipolar world. It seeks to deepen economic ties and defense cooperation while navigating international pressure.

Conclusion

The visit of President Putin to India highlights the enduring, albeit complex, relationship between the two nations. India's commitment to strategic autonomy and its multipolar worldview underpin its continued engagement with Russia, particularly in economic cooperation, including oil trade. While India maintains its stance of advocating for peace and negotiation in Ukraine, it is also actively managing the geopolitical pressures from the West, seeking to mitigate the impact of sanctions on its economy. For Russia, the visit serves as a significant propaganda victory, showcasing international engagement and attempting to create divisions within Western alliances.