What has driven Erdogan to step back into the center of diplomacy? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Peace Efforts Revival: Efforts by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Turkish President Erdoğan to restart negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
• Erdogan's Diplomatic Role: Turkey's President Erdoğan's ambition to position Turkey as a key mediator in the Ukraine conflict.
• Turkey's NATO Relationship: The complex and often contradictory position Turkey holds within NATO while maintaining relations with Russia.
• Hedging Strategy: Turkey's approach of not relying solely on traditional allies like the US and Europe, and building relationships with Russia.
• Dual-Use Goods: Items that can be used for both civilian and military purposes, which Turkey has been accused of selling to Russia.
• Illicit Financing: Facilitation of illegal financial transactions, which Turkey has been accused of enabling for Russia.
• US-Russia Peace Discussions: Reports of Washington discussing potential conditions for peace with Moscow, potentially sidelining Turkey.
• Turkish Peacekeepers: Erdoğan's offer to provide Turkish peacekeepers after a ceasefire.
• US Weapons Procurement: Turkey's desire to purchase high-end weapons from the US in exchange for diplomatic assistance.

Summary of Discussion on Turkey's Role in Ukraine Peace Efforts

1. Zelenskyy's Visit to Turkey and Erdogan's Diplomatic Push

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey to revitalize peace efforts. Istanbul has previously hosted three rounds of talks. Erdoğan is actively urging both Ukraine and Russia to return to the negotiating table. This meeting occurred amidst reports of Washington discussing potential peace conditions with Moscow. President Zelenskyy expressed hope for resuming prisoner swaps with Russia by the end of the year.

2. Driving Forces Behind Erdogan's Diplomatic Engagement

Sinan Ciftci, Director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, explained that Erdoğan's primary motivation is prestige. He aims to position Turkey as the solution to the Ukraine conflict, acting as an arbiter and threadbearer for peace. Erdoğan leverages Turkey's ability to communicate with both Moscow and Kyiv, claiming a meaningful relationship with both parties that can facilitate conflict resolution. This positioning allows Turkey to project a voice that is heard by both sides and the transatlantic partners.

3. Turkey's Complex Position within NATO and Relationship with Russia

Ciftci highlighted Turkey's complicated relationship within NATO. Turkey is described as a hedger, with Erdoğan's government asserting that Europe and the United States are in decline. Consequently, Turkey is not solely reliant on NATO and Europe as traditional allies, and has cultivated a relationship with Russia.

In the context of the Ukraine conflict, Turkey's actions have been dual-natured:

• Constraining Russia: Turkey closed off the Turkish straits, blocking Russian shipping.
• Enabling Russia: Earlier in the conflict, Turkey facilitated Russian illicit financing and sold dual-use goods that ended up in the Russian military, effectively aiding Russia's war effort. This demonstrates Turkey's strategy of "playing both sides."

4. Turkey's Negotiating Aims and Potential Deal with the US

The specific aims of Turkey in negotiations remain unclear. Erdoğan has previously indicated a desire to position himself favorably with a potential Trump administration post-January 2025. He has emphasized Turkey's pivotal role due to its relationship with both Moscow and Kyiv, suggesting he can help deliver the end of the war, a key campaign promise for Trump.

Erdoğan has volunteered Turkish peacekeepers after a ceasefire, though the practicalities of this remain unclear. His strategy appears to be positioning Turkey as a problem-solver for Washington. In return, Turkey has been seeking to purchase high-end weapons from the United States as part of a broader deal. However, Ciftci notes that Ankara has not yet been able to achieve these objectives.

5. Potential Exclusion from US-Russia Peace Discussions

Regarding reports of a peace plan being drafted by US and Russian officials, Ciftci stated that it is unclear if Turkey has been included. There have been no formal statements confirming Turkey's participation. While Turkish officials, including Erdoğan, have expressed a desire to be involved and claimed that lasting peace is impossible without Turkey, Ciftci has not seen evidence of Turkey being an integral part of any substantive deal.

Despite a lack of substantive results from previous attempts, Turkey has consistently volunteered its services as an interlocutor of peace and a staging ground for negotiations. Erdoğan, however, continues to seek a central player role, which the Trump administration may leverage if Erdoğan offers his services freely.

Conclusion

President Zelenskyy's visit to Turkey underscores the ongoing diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict. President Erdoğan is actively seeking to reassert Turkey's role as a key mediator, driven by a desire for international prestige. This ambition is complicated by Turkey's complex geopolitical position, balancing its NATO membership with its strategic relationship with Russia, which has led to actions that have both constrained and, at times, aided Russia's war effort. While Turkey aims to leverage its diplomatic influence for potential benefits, such as arms procurement from the US, its inclusion in substantive peace negotiations, particularly those reportedly involving the US and Russia, remains uncertain.