What happened to the defence deal with Papua New Guinea?

Australia-PNG Security Treaty: Stalled Agreement Analysis

Key Concepts:

Cucakota Trail: Symbolic location representing the Australia-PNG relationship.
Pukpook Treaty: Proposed defense treaty between Australia and PNG.
Regional Security: Strengthening security in the Pacific region.
Sovereignty: PNG's desire to maintain its independence and decision-making power.
China's Influence: Concerns about China's potential interference in the region.
Albanese Doctrine: Separating security and economic relationships.
Zero-Sum Game: The perception of diplomatic competition between Australia and China in the Pacific.

1. Background and Context:

The video discusses the stalled agreement for a major defense treaty, the "Pukpook Treaty," between Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG).
The treaty aims to solidify the relationship between the two countries, moving from a "master and subservient relationship" to one of "equal partners."
The agreement was symbolically foreshadowed by a walk along the historic Cucakota Trail by Prime Minister Albanese and Prime Minister Marape over a year prior.
The treaty is presented as a logical evolution of the relationship, building on initiatives like the $600 million deal to establish a PNG NRL team.

2. The Pukpook Treaty:

The treaty would commit Australia and PNG to defending each other in the event of a military attack.
It would also allow citizens to serve in each other's armed forces.
Prime Minister Marape stated the treaty is a "must-have" for PNG, providing defense capabilities against potential long-range missile threats.
The treaty is part of a broader push by the Australian Prime Minister to strengthen regional security.

3. Delay and Obstacles:

The PNG cabinet has not yet approved the treaty, causing a delay in its signing.
The official explanation is that the cabinet failed to reach a quorum due to independence celebrations and the presence of international dignitaries.
The Australian government is downplaying the delay as a "snafu" rather than a conspiracy.
The delay follows a similar situation where Prime Minister Albanese failed to secure a comprehensive agreement with Vanuatu.

4. Potential Reasons for the Delay:

External Influence (China): Concerns are raised about China's potential interference, with the government insisting China is not behind the PNG "stuff up" despite PNG's defense minister stating that external parties are seeking to derail the agreement.
- "China is relentless and they use all venues of engagement um to try to um block and blunt initiatives like the ones that Australia uh has um uh initiated."
Domestic Reservations in PNG: Concerns about sovereignty and a reluctance to diminish PNG's independence.
- "Sovereignty is a prize that has been hard won by Paperniginians and there's a real reluctance to diminish that in in any way."
Political Legacy (Prime Minister Marape): Mihi Sora suggests Marape's motivations are tied to his political legacy and desire to elevate PNG's profile as a security provider in the Pacific.

5. China's Role and the Albanese Doctrine:

Prime Minister Marape echoed the Albanese Doctrine, stating that countries can have separate security and economic relationships.
- "China has been an enduring friend of PNG for the last uh 50 years. We maintain one China policy, but China also knows clearly that in as far as security, we have our security partners of choice."
Despite economic ties with China, PNG asserts its right to choose its security partners.

6. Risks and Implications:

Mihi Sora cautions about potential risks for Australia, particularly regarding relations with Indonesia, given PNG's shared land border.
Any stumble by Australia in securing the agreement is seen as a win for China in a "zero-sum diplomatic knife fight" in the Pacific.

7. Conclusion:

The stalled agreement highlights the complexities of Australia's diplomatic efforts in the Pacific.
Whether the delay is due to internal PNG politics, external influence from China, or a combination of factors remains to be seen.
The situation underscores the importance of delivery and outcomes, not just rhetoric and photo opportunities.
- "This government shows itself as better at rhetoric than reality. Uh a photo op is not enough. We need to see delivery and outcomes."
The recent events suggest that Australia's influence in the Pacific is not as assured as it once was.