What Gold & Silver Are Saying About New Financial Era

Gold Fix Market Rundown - November 22, 2023: A Shift to an Asset-Based Economic Order

Key Concepts:

• Asset-Based Order: A new economic regime where ownership of assets (gold, silver, real estate) determines financial stability and opportunity, rather than wages or debt.
• Neocynesian Mindset: An economic approach focused on controlling demand through borrowing, prevalent since 1971.
• Monetary Metals Breakout: A significant upward trend in precious metals (gold and silver) relative to broader equity markets, indicating a structural shift in investment preferences.
• Tokenization of Gold: The process of representing physical gold as digital tokens on a blockchain, potentially impacting the ETF market.
• Dovish Policy Bias: A tendency by central banks (like the Federal Reserve) to favor lower interest rates, often in response to economic slowdowns.

I. Market Overview & Jobs Data Preview (November 22, 2023)

Vince Lansancy began the Gold Fix Market Rundown anticipating the release of the November jobs number. He stated the data is “skewed to the downside risk,” predicting payrolls around 50,000, but suggesting true job growth may be near zero or negative after adjusting for overcounting. He cited sources who share this view. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5%, the highest since 2021, driven by AI implementation and a hiring freeze in Washington.

Current market conditions (as of the recording) showed:

• Tenure Yields: Unchanged
• Dollar: Down 11
• S&P 500: Down 4
• Nasdaq: Up 7
• VIX: Up 25 (indicating increased volatility)
• Gold: Down $13, mid-range
• Silver: Down $1.2/3, near its lows
• Copper: $5.28, down 4 cents
• WTI Crude Oil: Down $0.78
• Bitcoin: The only asset increasing in value.

Lansancy characterized the market as exhibiting “recessionary fears” or simply “noise” ahead of the data release.

II. The Reset: A New Economic Order

The core of the discussion revolved around a recent analysis detailing a fundamental shift in the economic landscape. The central argument is that the post-World War II economic rules have changed. Specifically:

• Wages no longer guarantee security.
• Debt no longer provides upward mobility.
• Ownership of assets is now the primary determinant of financial success.

This shift is being “enforced not by policy announcements but by inflation,” acting as a “discipline mechanism” that raises barriers to entry for those without existing wealth. Lansancy described this as a “financial cast system.”

He outlined three distinct economic regimes:

1. Post-WWII Welfare State/Social Democracy: A response to communism, focused on providing broad supply.
2. Neocynesian Era (1971-2009): Following the end of the gold standard, this era focused on controlling demand through debt and incentivizing consumption ("borrow money to keep up with the Joneses"). This system collapsed in 2009 with the financial crisis.
3. The New Asset-Based Regime (2020-Present): Requires asset ownership to hedge against inflation. He emphasized the importance of owning income-producing assets (stocks) and inflationary hedges (gold, silver, real estate).

He noted that rising interest rates (e.g., 7% car loans) are contributing to the increased appeal of hard assets like gold and silver. He stated, “Houses aren't going to come down because you can't afford them. No one's going to be able to afford them.”

III. Michael Oliver’s Metals Commentary & Breakout Analysis

Michael Oliver’s recent 360 report identified November as a “decisive turning point” for monetary metals, marking the end of a long basing period and the beginning of a “broad relative performance breakout.” This breakout is not limited to precious metals; it’s observable across multiple equity benchmarks.

Specifically, gold has broken out against:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average
• New York Stock Exchange Composite
• S&P 500
• NASDAQ

This “cross-asset reset” suggests that miners will participate in stock market gains, but may be less affected by sell-offs as investors rotate into cyclical stocks and precious metals. The detailed chart breakdown will be released later that day at 11 a.m.

IV. Mining Sector News & Global Trends

• Barrick Gold (Mali): Barrick has regained operational control of its Lolo Concodto gold complex in Mali, along with approximately three tons of confiscated gold, following a dispute with the Malian government. Lansancy speculated this resolution may be linked to Barrick’s upcoming US public offering and potential American protection.
• China’s Expansion in Brazil: China is acquiring Brazilian operations of Equinox Gold Corp. for approximately $1 billion, demonstrating its increasing investment in overseas precious metals assets, driven by high gold prices and strategic diversification. This is part of China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative.

V. Central Bank Gold Buying & Tokenization

Goldman Sachs is releasing a report on central bank gold buying, addressing the emerging trend of gold tokenization for the first time. Their initial assessment suggests that tokenized gold will likely cannibalize existing gold ETFs, finding no significant advantage in tokenized gold over traditional ETFs. However, they acknowledge the growing interest in tokenization.

VI. Upcoming Data & Resources

• Today: Unemployment data release.
• Tomorrow: Breakdown of Michael Oliver’s report with chart analysis.
• Available Resources: The “economic reset” analysis is available in the premium post. Reports on central bank gold buying and tokenization will be released soon.

Notable Quote:

“Since World War II, we have had two big big big picture economic regimes…And that cracked in 2009 with the great financial crisis because everybody wanted a home and we just simply could not finance everybody's home, especially the people that weren't working.” – Vince Lansancy

Conclusion:

The Gold Fix Market Rundown presented a compelling argument for a fundamental shift in the economic order, moving away from wage and debt-based systems towards an asset-based model. Inflation is identified as the key driver of this change, creating a system where ownership of physical assets is crucial for financial security and opportunity. The analysis of Michael Oliver’s work further supports this thesis, highlighting a significant breakout in precious metals relative to broader equity markets. The report emphasizes the need to adapt to this new landscape by focusing on income-producing assets and inflationary hedges.