What does Germany's Chancellor hope to accomplish on his visit to Modi in India? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Defense Cooperation: Increasing military collaboration between India and Germany, including joint drills and potential arms sales/co-production.
• Diversification of Military Hardware: India’s strategic move to reduce reliance on Russian military equipment.
• Strategic Autonomy: Both India and Germany’s desire to navigate a multipolar world independent of complete reliance on the US or China.
• Indo-Pacific Focus: Shared concern over China’s growing influence and assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Partners of Necessity: The evolving relationship between India, Germany, and the EU driven by global geopolitical shifts.
• Bilateral Trade Agreement: The anticipated trade agreement between India and the EU, decades in the making.

Growing Defense Ties & Diversification

The first-ever German fighter jet exercise over Indian skies, conducted in August 2024, signals a potential increase in military cooperation between India and Germany. This development coincides with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, where defense is a key agenda item. India views Germany as a crucial partner for diversifying and upgrading its military hardware, specifically aiming to lessen its dependence on Russia as a primary arms supplier. Historically, Germany has been reluctant to sell weapons to India, partly due to its existing relationship with Russia, but this stance is demonstrably shifting. Germany is now considering co-producing military equipment within India, notably submarines for the Indian Navy.

Geopolitical Realignment & US Uncertainty

The strengthening India-Germany relationship is occurring within a broader context of global alliance pressures. Both nations are closely observing the United States, particularly in light of the unpredictable policies of Donald Trump. Actions regarding tariffs, Ukraine, and Venezuela have served as a “wake-up call” for both Modi and Scholz, highlighting the potential instability of relying solely on US power. However, neither country can currently afford to sever ties with the US, recognizing its continued military and economic importance.

Shared Concerns: China & a Multipolar World

A significant driver of this partnership is a shared concern regarding China’s increasing assertiveness, particularly within the Indo-Pacific region and its impact on critical supply chains. Both India and Germany advocate for a “rules-based multilateral world,” rejecting a system dominated by the unilateral power of either Washington or Beijing. They seek a global order based on international law and cooperation, rather than “might is right.” This shared vision fuels their desire to deepen existing cooperation.

Challenges & Balancing Acts

Despite the growing alignment, several challenges remain. India views China as a direct security threat due to the long-standing border dispute. Conversely, China remains Germany’s largest trading partner, with trade volume approximately eight times greater than that with India. Furthermore, India maintains close ties with Russia, while Russia represents the primary security challenge for the European Union due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. These complexities require careful balancing by both nations.

Symbolic Gestures & Trade Prospects

The upcoming visit is laden with symbolic gestures demonstrating the strengthening relationship. Modi’s invitation to Scholz to visit his home state of Gujarat, rather than Delhi, is interpreted as a sign of appreciation. Scholz’s decision to visit India before China is also considered significant. Crucially, India and the EU are expected to finalize a bilateral trade agreement at the end of January – a deal that has been under negotiation for two decades.

A Partnership of Necessity

As the established global order faces increasing uncertainty, the relationship between India, Germany, and, by extension, the European Union, transcends mere convenience. As stated implicitly throughout the analysis, the era of Donald Trump has transformed this relationship into one of “partners of necessity.” This suggests a fundamental shift in geopolitical strategy driven by a need for reliable partnerships in a volatile world.