What does El Mencho’s death mean for Mexico’s battle against organized crime? | DW News

Mexico’s Response to Eleno’s Death & Cartel Violence

Key Concepts:

• Eleno (Nemesis Oera Cervantes): Leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), a rapidly growing and powerful Mexican drug cartel.
• CJNG (Jalisco New Generation Cartel): A notorious criminal network involved in drug trafficking and extreme violence, known for its sophisticated weaponry.
• Claudia Sheinbaum: Current President of Mexico, facing pressure from the US to combat drug cartels.
• Decapitation Strategy: A tactic of targeting cartel leaders, often resulting in fragmentation and increased violence.
• Turf War: Conflicts between rival criminal groups vying for control of territory and illicit markets.
• Intelligence-Led Policing: Focusing on gathering and analyzing information to disrupt criminal organizations, particularly their finances.

Escalation of Violence Following Eleno’s Death

The killing of Nemesis Oera Cervantes, known as Eleno, leader of the CJNG, has triggered a wave of violence across Mexico. The operation, conducted solely by Mexican federal forces with information sharing from the US, resulted in dozens of deaths, including Mexican National Guard troops. Eyewitnesses documented panic at the Halisco airport as vehicles were set ablaze. Gunmen responded by setting fire to cars and shops, blocking highways in 20 states, and engaging in clashes with security forces. While authorities reported clearing most of the 250 cartel roadblocks by late Sunday, they advised citizens to remain indoors. The initial raid occurred in Tapalpa, near Guadalajara, following a tip-off from an associate of Eleno. Eight cartel members were killed in the initial firefight, with Eleno and two bodyguards dying en route to a Mexico City hospital after sustaining injuries.

Concerns Regarding the “Decapitation” Strategy

Alex Gonzalez Ormeot, a journalist specializing in Mexican politics, expressed concern that Eleno’s death isn’t necessarily positive news. He argues that eliminating a cartel leader often leads to fragmentation, creating multiple, competing factions – a “hydra’s head” effect. He highlights that President Sheinbaum has demonstrated a more effective approach through intelligence gathering and disrupting cartel finances. However, the opportunity to capture Eleno proved too tempting, leading to a raid. Gonzalez emphasized the importance of dismantling the entire organization, not just removing its leader, and noted the swift killing of Eleno’s second-in-command, responsible for logistics and finance, as a positive step towards this goal.

Government Response and Crime Rate Trends

President Sheinbaum has vowed to combat organized crime. Statistics indicate a significant decline in Mexico’s murder rate since she took office approximately a year ago – a 40% reduction, making Mexico safer than Brazil and comparable to Puerto Rico. Mexico City is reportedly safer than Washington D.C. or Chicago. However, these gains are fragile, as past flare-ups, like in Sinaloa, demonstrate. The CJNG’s rise to power was facilitated by the government’s previous efforts to dismantle the Sinaloa Cartel, creating a power vacuum.

US Pressure and the Role of Donald Trump

The operation is viewed through the lens of increasing US pressure, particularly from former President Donald Trump, to crack down on drug cartels. While the operation was Mexican-led, the US provided intelligence support. Gonzalez suggests the timing could be a response to Trump’s assertions of power in the region, but also a demonstration of Sheinbaum’s own agenda. He believes the establishment of a US task force focused on cartel networks has created an opportunity for enhanced collaboration between Mexican and US intelligence agencies. However, he stresses that addressing the demand for drugs in the US is crucial, as long as drug proceeds flow back into Mexico, the problem will persist.

On-the-Ground Situation in Guadalajara and Beyond

Journalist Katie Silver reported a slow return to normalcy in Mexico City, though trepidation remained. The state of Jalisco remains under “code red,” with schools closed and residents sheltering in place, though this is beginning to lift. The raid occurred following a tip-off from a friend of one of Eleno’s lovers, who was being monitored in conjunction with the US special task force. Eleno’s history was outlined, detailing his time as an undocumented immigrant in the US, his involvement in the heroin trade, and his subsequent rise through the ranks of the CJNG, which exports billions of dollars worth of fentanyl, cocaine, and methamphetamine into the US. The cartel is known for its sophisticated weaponry, including grenades and rocket launchers.

Analysis from the International Crisis Group

David Ma, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, described the widespread nature of the retaliation as shocking, extending beyond Jalisco to states like Veracruz and Tamaulipas. He noted that similar reactions occurred after previous attempts to capture members of the Guzmán family. He emphasized that the government anticipated the backlash and that Sheinbaum has adopted a more confrontational approach to organized crime since taking office. Ma believes the operation serves as a demonstration to the US that Mexico can effectively address the cartel problem through cooperation and intelligence sharing, while maintaining Mexican control over operations on its soil. He predicts that Eleno’s death will likely lead to internal struggles within the CJNG and increased violence as factions compete for control.

Conclusion:

The death of Eleno has unleashed a wave of violence across Mexico, highlighting the complexities of combating powerful drug cartels. While the operation represents a significant blow to the CJNG, experts warn that simply removing a leader is unlikely to solve the problem. A comprehensive strategy focused on dismantling the entire organization, disrupting its finances, and addressing the demand for drugs in the US is crucial. The situation also underscores the delicate balance between responding to US pressure and maintaining Mexican sovereignty in the fight against organized crime. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the government can contain the fallout and prevent a full-scale turf war.