What damage has Ukraine’s covert drone attacks on Russia actually caused? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Kirch Strait Bridge: A road and rail bridge connecting Russia to the annexed Crimea Peninsula.
• SBU: Ukraine's Secret Service.
• TU-22 & TU-95: Russian long-range strategic bombers.
• Operation Spiderweb: Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian air bases.
• Maximalist Goals: Russia's demands including Ukrainian territorial concessions, demilitarization, and neutrality.
• Transatlantic and US National Security: The security interests of the US and its allies in Europe.

Attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge

• Ukraine claims to have successfully damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge, a crucial military supply line for Russia to Crimea.
• The SBU released footage showing a blast in the water near the bridge.
• This marks Ukraine's third attack on the bridge, which is a symbol of Moscow's occupation of Crimea.
• The attack is considered lawful self-defense aimed at degrading Russian logistics and undermining the illusion of permanence in occupied territories.
• Russian officials claim traffic has resumed on the bridge.

Drone Attacks on Russian Air Bases

• Ukraine has conducted major attacks destroying several Russian warplanes using swarms of drones.
• The attacks targeted multiple Russian air bases, some deep inside the country.
• The targeted aircraft include TU-22 and TU-95 bombers, which carry Russian cruise missiles.
• Ukraine claims to have destroyed 40 aircraft, a figure considered exaggerated by Russian propaganda bloggers.
• Independent military experts suspect the number of aircraft hit is slightly more than Russian propaganda admits but significantly fewer than Ukrainian officials claim.
• Satellite images suggest 13 aircraft were either destroyed or severely damaged.
• The TU-95 bomber, developed in the 1950s, is one of the oldest active military aircraft and part of Russia's nuclear deterrent.
• Neither the TU-95 nor the TU-22 aircraft are currently produced, meaning their loss cannot be compensated for.
• The drone attacks have caused significant damage to the morale of the Kremlin, Russian army, FSB, and other secret services.
• Olivia Yanchik notes that these attacks highlight Ukraine's technological advancement using cheap materials, damaging the prestige of the Russian military.

Strategic Implications and Kremlin's Response

• The attacks on the bridge and air bases are not just tactical successes but also strategic signals.
• These actions have allowed Ukraine to attract Russia's conventional forces.
• The attacks are considered a major Ukrainian contribution to transatlantic and US national security.
• "Operation Spiderweb" has diminished Moscow's ability to conduct sustained aerial bombardments of Ukrainian cities and frontline positions.
• Despite the attacks, Russia's proposed settlement continues to reflect its maximalist goals, which are non-starters for Ukraine.
• Putin is likely to brush off the attacks and continue playing the long game, relying on waiting out Ukrainian resources.

Ukrainian Delegation's Visit to Washington

• A senior Ukrainian delegation, including Andre Yermak, visited Washington for talks with US defense officials about defense support for Ukraine.
• Yanchik believes there is potential for Ukraine to get what it needs from Washington, especially given the attacks on Russian air bases.
• These attacks advertise the damage Ukraine can do to Russia's nuclear-capable air forces.
• There is growing bipartisan support in the Senate for sanctions.
• Trump's stance remains unclear; he has not confirmed support for the bill despite his frustrations with Putin.
• Yanchik suggests that if Trump truly wants a durable peace, he should leverage Ukraine's successes to strengthen his hand at the negotiating table by threatening serious new sanctions if Putin doesn't accept a ceasefire.
• Public statements from Yermak indicate Putin is continuing his maximalist aims regardless of these attacks.

Trump's Position and Potential for Decisive Action

• Trump has been increasingly vocal about his frustration with Putin and doesn't want to be "played a fool."
• If Putin continues to make him look like a fool, Trump may take a different position.
• If the White House and Trump realize that Putin does not want peace, Trump is more likely to take decisive action and take advantage of the opportunity.

Synthesis/Conclusion

Ukraine's attacks on the Kerch Strait Bridge and Russian air bases represent significant strategic victories, demonstrating Ukraine's ability to strike deep into Russian-controlled territory and damage critical military assets. While the Kremlin may attempt to downplay these events, they have implications for Russian logistics, morale, and international perceptions of the conflict. The success of these operations could influence US policy and potentially lead to increased support for Ukraine, particularly if Trump perceives Putin as unwilling to negotiate a peaceful resolution. The situation remains dynamic, and the future course of the conflict will depend on a complex interplay of military actions, diplomatic efforts, and political calculations.