What can Japan and South Korea do about low births?ーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

Japan and South Korea’s Declining Birth Rates

Key Concepts: Total Fertility Rate, Demographic Trends, Marriage Rates, Economic Factors, Government Intervention, Post-Pandemic Trends, Housing Costs, Social Expectations, AI Matchmaking.

Demographic Crisis in Japan

Preliminary figures released by Japan’s health ministry reveal a continuing and accelerating population crisis. In 2025, the number of births reached a record low of 705,890, a decrease of 2.1% – over 15,000 fewer babies than the previous year. This decline is significantly faster than previously projected; the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research had anticipated births falling below 710,000 in 2042, but this threshold was crossed 17 years earlier. Kim Mongjun, a senior research fellow at the NLI Research Institute, notes that “the decline of Japan's birth rate and the aging of its population are both progressing faster than expected, and the situation for young people has become even more severe.” He predicts the downward trend will continue.

Factors Contributing to the Decline

The causes of Japan’s declining birth rate are multifaceted, encompassing economic issues and shifting attitudes among younger generations. A key factor is the decreasing number of marriages. Marriage rates peaked in 1972 at over 1 million (linked to the first baby boom generation reaching their 20s) and have since fallen to almost half that number in 2025, despite a slight increase compared to the previous year. Experts suggest a post-COVID-19 “wedding boom” contributed to this slight uptick, but the overall trend remains downward. Kim Mongjun emphasizes a strong correlation between marriage and births in Japan, meaning delayed or forgone marriage significantly impacts the birth rate.

South Korea’s Parallel Challenges

South Korea is facing a similar demographic crisis. In 2025, its total fertility rate stood at 0.8, among the lowest globally, although it experienced a small rise from the previous year. Like Japan, South Korea saw a post-pandemic increase in weddings, but the overarching trend is negative. High property prices are identified as a major deterrent to marriage. The traditional expectation for the husband to provide a home is particularly challenging in Seoul, where the average condominium price is around $1 million.

Economic Disparities in South Korea

Kim Mongjun explains that economic inequality exacerbates the problem. Only 10-15% of South Koreans work at major firms, while the remaining 85% are employed by small and medium-sized companies with significantly lower earning potential. This disparity makes homeownership – and therefore marriage – unattainable for many. He states, “They don't earn as much as people working at major firms, so they can't buy or even rent a good apartment. And if people don't have a home, it's hard to get married, which means it's also hard to have children.”

Government Interventions and Their Limitations

The city of Incin, South Korea, has gained attention for a notable increase in births – over 16,000 in the last year, an 8.8% rise. This is attributed to a program providing financial support of approximately $70,000 per child by the time they turn 18, alongside efforts to lower property prices, offering housing to couples for less than $1 per day. However, experts caution that these policies primarily address life after marriage. Kim Mongjun argues, “Policies for married couples are very important, but I think it is vital to create an environment that’s conducive to getting married in the first place… it is necessary to understand the concerns that young people have about marriage and offer stronger support measures for them.”

Japan’s Proactive Measures

Japan is also implementing initiatives to encourage marriage. Tokyo has launched a government-backed matchmaking app utilizing AI to connect potential partners. The underlying principle is to bolster confidence and facilitate personal choices regarding marriage. As stated, “At the end of the day, marriage is a personal choice. Authorities hope they can give more people the confidence to say, 'I do.'"

Synthesis & Conclusion

Both Japan and South Korea are grappling with rapidly declining birth rates driven by complex economic and social factors. While post-pandemic wedding increases offer a temporary reprieve, the long-term trends are concerning. High housing costs, economic inequality, and changing societal attitudes towards marriage are key contributors. Government interventions, while helpful, need to focus not only on supporting families after marriage but also on creating an environment that encourages young people to marry in the first place. The speed at which these demographic shifts are occurring underscores the urgency of addressing these challenges.