What can Donald Trump get from Xi Jinping? | The Economist

Key Concepts

• AI Safety: The collaborative effort to mitigate risks associated with advanced artificial intelligence, particularly regarding nuclear command, cyber warfare, and biological threats.
• Three Joint Communiqués: The foundational diplomatic agreements (1972, 1979, 1982) governing US-China relations regarding Taiwan and arms sales.
• Strategic Ambiguity: The long-standing US policy of maintaining diplomatic relations with China while providing defensive support to Taiwan without explicit security guarantees.
• Board of Trade: A proposed mechanism for managing US-China economic relations by distinguishing between sensitive and non-sensitive goods.
• Overcapacity: A structural economic issue in China characterized by massive export volume coupled with insufficient domestic consumption.

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1. Artificial Intelligence: Safety and Geopolitics

The Biden administration prioritized AI safety, a concern that has gained traction under the Trump administration following the release of Anthropic’s "Mythos" model.

• Divergent Approaches: China focuses on practical, efficient, and lower-cost AI models rather than the US-centric pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
• Political Concerns: China is highly sensitive to AI’s impact on unemployment and the potential for private AI firms to generate insights into Chinese society that bypass Communist Party oversight.
• Shared Risks: Both nations recognize the need for coordination regarding AI in nuclear weapons systems, the creation of pathogens by non-state actors, and cyber fraud.
• The Trust Deficit: Despite a baseline agreement that humans must remain in control of nuclear buttons, deep-seated mistrust prevents meaningful cooperation. Neither side is willing to accept limitations on their own AI development, fearing the other will not reciprocate.

2. The Taiwan Question and Arms Sales

Taiwan remains the most volatile issue in bilateral relations.

• Historical Context: The 1982 Communiqué committed the US to gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan, contingent upon China maintaining a peaceful approach to the Taiwan Strait.
• Current Tension: The US argues that China’s increasing military aggression justifies continued arms sales. Conversely, China views these sales as a violation of US commitments.
• Trump’s Negotiating Style: There is evidence that Donald Trump has moved away from traditional policy by directly negotiating arms sales with Xi Jinping. This was highlighted by the delay of a $13–14 billion arms package following a January phone call between the two leaders, a move that has alarmed Taiwanese officials who view it as a breach of the 1982 "Six Assurances."

3. Trade and Economic Strategy

The proposed "Board of Trade" is viewed as a potential mechanism to categorize goods by sensitivity, allowing for relaxed restrictions in specific sectors.

• Operational Challenges: Past attempts at working-level dialogues have failed because Chinese representatives often lack the authority to make concessions without high-level political backing, turning these meetings into "talking shops."
• The "Beef, Beans, and Boeing" Strategy: Trump often seeks tangible, short-term wins (purchases of US goods) to present as political victories.
• Xi’s Domestic Position: Xi Jinping’s absolute political control—evidenced by recent military purges—insulates him from domestic backlash regarding trade concessions. However, he is constrained by China’s economic reality: systemic overcapacity and weak domestic consumption. Xi is unlikely to offer trade concessions without receiving significant economic benefits in return.

4. Synthesis and Conclusion

The upcoming diplomatic meetings represent a critical juncture for US-China relations. While there is a theoretical alignment on the need for AI safety and economic stability, the relationship is hampered by a fundamental lack of trust and conflicting strategic goals.

The core takeaway is that while both leaders may seek "quick wins" (such as agricultural or aerospace purchases) to satisfy domestic political needs, the structural issues—specifically the status of Taiwan and the geopolitical competition over AI—remain unresolved. The shift toward direct, leader-to-leader negotiation on sensitive issues like arms sales suggests a move away from established diplomatic frameworks toward a more transactional, and potentially unpredictable, era of bilateral relations.