What can Democrats learn from their election wins? | Checks and Balance podcast

Key Concepts

• Affordability: A central theme in recent elections, focusing on issues like housing, drug pricing, and utility bills.
• Democratic Populism: Characterized by grandiose promises, big solutions, and radical change (e.g., Mom Donnie, AOC, Bernie Sanders).
• Democratic Popularism: A more centrist approach focusing on pragmatic problem-solving and broadly popular issues (e.g., Spanberger, Cheryl).
• Big Tent Party: The idea that the Democratic Party should encompass a wide range of ideologies and factions.
• "The Groups": A constellation of unions, noisy nonprofits, and activists that have influenced Democratic politics.
• Right to Work Law: A law that prohibits requiring employees to join a union or pay union dues as a condition of employment.
• Pragmatism vs. Partisanship: A key distinction highlighted in election results, favoring practical solutions over ideological divides.
• National Platform: The challenge for Democrats in defining a unified national message.
• Primaries for 2028: Seen as a potential turning point for defining the Democratic national platform.

Election Analysis: New York, New Jersey, and Virginia

This discussion analyzes the recent election results in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia, focusing on their implications for the Democratic Party and potential Republican responses. A recurring theme across these elections was the focus on affordability as a key voter concern.

Virginia and New Jersey: The Affordability Focus

• Disciplined Campaigns: Both candidates in Virginia and New Jersey ran disciplined campaigns that consistently addressed the issue of affordability. This aligns with the approach of candidates like Mom Donnie in New York.
• Divergent Approaches to Affordability: While affordability was a common theme, the proposed solutions differed significantly, indicating a potential internal debate within the Democratic Party.
• Abigail Spanberger (Virginia):
  • Pragmatic Stance: Spanberger is highlighted for her pragmatic approach, exemplified by her refusal to commit to overturning Virginia's "right to work" law. This position was disappointing to core Democratic constituencies like the AFL-CIO.
  • Standing Up to "The Groups": Her willingness to challenge "the groups" – a loose constellation of unions, nonprofits, and activists often dominating online discourse – is seen as a healthy sign for the Democratic Party.
  • Policy Focus: Spanberger's policy platform is described as "dull" but practical, focusing on issues like drug pricing, energy, and housing. Her housing plan includes cutting red tape, streamlining permitting, and using city bonding authority for development.
  • Victory Speech: Her emphasis on Virginia choosing "pragmatism over partisanship" encapsulates her campaign's core message.
• Mikie Sherrill (New Jersey):
  • Utility Bills Focus: Sherrill's primary affordability concern was utility bills, a "nuts and bolts" issue directly impacting voters, rather than a sweeping ideological vision.

Crystallizing the Democratic Debate: Populism vs. Popularism

The election results have crystallized a long-standing debate within the Democratic Party:

• Democratic Populism: This approach, exemplified by Mom Donnie, AOC, and Bernie Sanders, mirrors Donald Trump's politics with grandiose promises, big solutions, and calls for radical change.
• Democratic Popularism: This strategy involves running towards the center, focusing on broadly popular issues, and presenting candidates as pragmatic problem-solvers. Both Sherrill and Spanberger are cited as examples of this approach.

New Faces and Unconventional Resumes

Both Spanberger and Sherrill are noted for being fresh faces and the first women to hold their respective governorships (Virginia and New Jersey).

• Anti-Establishment Quality: Their candidacies represented change and an anti-establishment sentiment.
• National Security Backgrounds: Both women possess national security backgrounds (Spanberger in the CIA, Sherrill as a helicopter pilot), which are seen as reassuring leadership qualities and unconventional for Democratic candidates.
• "Badasses" vs. "The Squad": The discussion briefly touches on the branding efforts of different political groups in 2018, contrasting "The Squad" with a group of five former service women who called themselves "the badasses."

The "Big Tent" Dilemma for Democrats

A key question is whether the Democratic Party can effectively function as an "all of the above" or "smorgasbord" party, accommodating diverse ideologies.

• Argument for a Big Tent: In a large and diverse country like America, a big tent party is generally considered beneficial.
• Concerns about Extremes: However, having figures like Mom Donnie and democratic socialism in New York is seen by some as detrimental to the party's ability to win in crucial swing districts.
• National Platform Uncertainty: Democrats currently lack a clear national platform, which has historically led to difficulties. The current situation is described as a "market of different ideas," where observing the reactions to figures like Mom Donnie might help crystallize a national message.
• Progressives Chasing Away Moderate Candidates: A significant concern is that progressives and left-leaning factions may alienate potential candidates who could win in districts where Democrats typically struggle.

The Case of Jared Golden and the Ejection of Moderates

The retirement of Jared Golden (D-Maine) is presented as a prime example of this problem.

• Golden's Profile: A Marine Corps veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, Golden won four times in a large, rural Maine district that Donald Trump carried in recent elections. He represented an intersection of "sane" and "independent" members of Congress.
• Party Friction: Golden's decision to retire is attributed, in part, to frustration with constant battles against members within his own party.
• Ejecting Moderates: The Democratic Party has historically had an impulse to push out moderates, citing Joe Manchin (former Senator from West Virginia) as an example. Manchin's resistance to some sweeping proposals is now seen as having potentially saved Joe Biden from more radical impulses, but at the time, there was a strong desire to eject him.
• Missed Opportunity: The loss of Golden is seen as a significant blow, as Democrats are losing a candidate who could compete in rural areas where they are currently not strong.

Republican Response and Democratic Strategy

• Republican Fundraising: Republicans are already fundraising off figures like Mom Donnie, aiming to make him a face of their party.
• Democratic Counter-Strategy: The answer for Democrats, according to the discussion, is to:
  • Run strong candidates responsive to local concerns.
  • Distance themselves from figures they disagree with, whether on the left or the right.
  • Embrace a big tent approach by supporting candidates who can win in diverse districts.

Conclusion and Takeaways

The recent elections highlight a critical juncture for the Democratic Party. While a focus on affordability resonates with voters, the party faces a challenge in reconciling its diverse ideological wings. The debate between democratic populism and democratic popularism, the need for a clear national platform, and the risk of alienating moderate candidates are key issues. The success of the party moving forward will likely depend on its ability to field pragmatic, locally responsive candidates who can bridge divides and appeal to a broader electorate, rather than being defined by its most extreme voices. The upcoming primaries for 2028 are anticipated to be crucial in shaping the party's national identity.