What are the red lines on ‘external interference’ on Taiwan? Ex-Chinese senior colonel weighs in

Key Concepts:

• Multipolarity vs. Multilateralism: The distinction between a world order where major powers carve out dominant areas (multipolarity) and one where all nations adhere to common rules (multilateralism).
• Strategic Ambiguity: The policy of not clearly defining red lines, employed by both China and the US regarding Taiwan.
• Peaceful Reunification: China's stated preference for reunifying Taiwan through peaceful means.
• Taiwanese Separatist Authority: The term used to describe the current leadership in Taiwan, viewed by Beijing as increasingly provocative.
• Freedom of Navigation Operations: Military exercises conducted by the US and its allies in the South China Sea, viewed by China as a challenge to its sovereignty.
• Deterrence: The use of measures, such as water cannons, to discourage unwanted actions without resorting to force.
• Sangan Forum: An annual security forum in Beijing where China projects its power and discusses global governance.

1. China's Stance on Global Governance and Military Power

• Chinese Defense Minister Tongqin emphasized China's efforts to reshape global governance and asserted that its strong military serves as a force for peace.
• He warned against any Taiwan separatist attempts, stating the People's Liberation Army (PLA) would not allow them to succeed.
• Tongqin criticized the "might is right" approach, implying a veiled swipe at the US and its perceived dominance.

2. Red Lines and External Interference in Taiwan

• The discussion explores the ambiguity surrounding China's red lines regarding Taiwan.
• Both China and the US talk about red lines but haven't explicitly defined them.
• Joe B. suggests that while neither side has specified the red line, both sides have a good understanding of what the other side wants.
• Potential triggers for crossing the line include arm sales to Taiwan, naval transits through the Taiwan Strait, and high-level visits by foreign officials to Taiwan.

3. Multipolarity and Regional Solutions

• An analyst suggests that China's concept of multipolarity is less about common rules (multilateralism) and more about major powers dividing the world into spheres of influence.
• Tongqin's call for regional solutions implies that external actors should stay out of regional issues like the South China Sea and Taiwan.
• Joe B. argues that multipolarity is a common global sentiment, citing former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's view that a unipolar power is not normal.
• He points to the Munich Security Conference's theme of multipolarization as evidence of this global trend.
• Joe B. believes the West needs to overcome its mentality and accept China as an equal member of the international community. He estimates this may take 10-20 years for the US to fully realize.

4. China's Role in Global Cooperation

• Joe B. notes that the Biden administration recognizes China's indispensable role in global cooperation, particularly in persuading Russia and Iran, and engaging with the Houthis.
• China's approach to global governance involves cooperating with other countries to address common challenges and threats, rather than overthrowing the international order.

5. South China Sea Tensions and Freedom of Navigation

• The discussion addresses the rising tensions in the South China Sea and China's firm military posture.
• Joe B. argues that there won't be a conflict between China and the Philippines because China is overwhelmingly stronger.
• He points out that the Philippines has maintained a stranded ship on the Second Thomas Shoal for 26 years, implying China could easily remove it if it wanted to.
• He defends the use of water cannons by the Chinese Coast Guard as a form of deterrence, avoiding the use of force.
• Joe B. claims that the Filipino Coast Guard has used force against Chinese fishermen in the past (2000, 2006, and 2013).

6. Sangan Forum and International Dialogue

• The forum featured heated exchanges, including a Chinese scholar openly criticizing an Israeli delegate on the Gaza situation.
• Professor Yenhuong stated that Israel "should have shot the terrorists, not the children."
• Joe B. believes the international community should have no ambiguity about what has happened in Gaza and that more countries are starting to recognize Palestine as a state.

7. German Reunification Model for Taiwan

• The idea of using the German reunification model to incentivize Taiwan was raised at the forum.
• Joe B. notes that former US Secretary of State Peter Hex's remarks about a potential conflict being inevitable contradict his predecessor's views.
• He believes there is still time and that the Chinese government has patience.
• As China becomes stronger, it could become more confident about peaceful reunification or more impatient.
• Joe B. expresses concern that the Taiwanese leadership is becoming increasingly provocative, describing the Chinese mainland as a "hostile foreign force."

8. Timeline for Reunification

• Joe B. states that China's roadmap aims to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049.
• While some interpret this to include reunification with Taiwan, official Chinese documents do not explicitly state this.
• He firmly believes that reunification is a must, as China cannot afford to have territory separated from the mainland as it becomes stronger.
• The means of reunification (peaceful or otherwise) remains the key question.
• Joe B. suggests that time is not on Taiwan's side and that the Taiwanese society should realize that Taiwan cannot move away.

9. Notable Quotes

• Tongqin: (Implied) Criticism of the "might is right" approach, suggesting a veiled swipe at the US.
• Professor Yenhuong: "You should have shot the terrorists, not the children" (referring to the situation in Gaza).
• Joe B.: "The world is becoming less western and even the west itself is becoming less western."
• Joe B.: "Reunification is a must... The only question is through what means."

10. Conclusion

The discussion highlights China's assertive stance on global governance, its military power, and its approach to Taiwan. While China expresses a preference for peaceful reunification, it views the current Taiwanese leadership as increasingly provocative. The concept of multipolarity, as opposed to multilateralism, is central to China's vision of a new world order. The tensions in the South China Sea and the ambiguity surrounding red lines regarding Taiwan remain key areas of concern. The expert suggests that while China is patient, the Taiwanese society should realize that time is not on their side.