What are the chances of peace between Russia and Ukraine? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Ukraine Independence Day: Marked amidst the ongoing war with Russia.
• Security Guarantees: Discussions around ensuring Ukraine's security, particularly in the context of NATO membership.
• NATO Membership: Considered the most credible security guarantee for Ukraine against Russian aggression.
• Peace Talks: Efforts to bring an end to the war, including potential meetings between Zelensky and Putin.
• Territorial Losses: The possibility of Ukraine accepting de facto control of some territories by Russia in exchange for peace.
• Russian Objectives: Perceived as the destruction of the Ukrainian state.

Ukraine's Independence Day Amidst War

• Ukraine marked its Independence Day three and a half years after Russia's full-scale invasion.
• President Zelensky led a ceremony in Kyiv, emphasizing the war's impact on Ukrainian self-worth.
• A minute of silence was held to honor those who died fighting for Ukraine's freedom.
• Zelensky stated Ukraine would never surrender its freedom and is pushing the war back to Russian territory.
• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carne visited Ukraine to show support, emphasizing the need for security guarantees for Ukraine and distrust of Putin.
• For soldiers on the front line, Independence Day highlights the significance of their efforts for the nation's future.
• Zelensky thanked Trump for a letter expressing belief in Ukraine's future as an independent nation.

Security Guarantees and NATO Membership

• Steven Blank, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, discussed the implications of Western allies deploying forces to Ukraine.
• He clarified that any deployment would be for peace agreement enforcement, not combat.
• Blank argued that the only credible security guarantee for Ukraine, which Putin would recognize, is NATO membership (Article 5).
• He dismissed UN guarantees as ineffective and easily obstructed by Russia.
• Blank stated that even if allies send troops, they would likely be a peacekeeping force, requiring a massive deployment (100,000+ troops), making NATO the only realistic option.
• He criticized the idea of including Russia in Ukrainian security guarantees as absurd, given Russia's role as the aggressor.

Perspectives on Peace Talks and Territorial Integrity

• Blank stated that the recent summit was just talk and a charade, as Russia is not interested in peace but in destroying Ukraine.
• Mariana Bucheran, a research associate at Harvard Kennedy School, discussed the meaning of Independence Day for Ukrainians.
• She noted a sense of victory in Ukraine's survival against a stronger adversary.
• Bucheran acknowledged growing calls for a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, with uncertain prospects.
• She highlighted the importance of US leadership and assistance in building Ukraine's leverage in peace talks.
• Regarding territorial losses, Bucheran suggested Ukrainians might accept de facto Russian control over some territories, similar to the division of East and West Germany.
• However, she stated that granting diplomatic recognition to occupied territories, including Crimea, or ceding the entire Donetsk region would be much harder to accept.

Conclusion

The discussion highlights the complex situation in Ukraine, balancing the celebration of Independence Day with the ongoing war. While peace talks are being discussed, experts emphasize the need for credible security guarantees, with NATO membership being the most effective deterrent against further Russian aggression. The potential for territorial concessions remains a sensitive issue, with varying degrees of acceptance among Ukrainians. The overall sentiment is that Ukraine has shown resilience and determination in the face of adversity, but the path to a lasting peace remains uncertain.