What are Putin's conditions for a meeting with Ukraine's Zelenskyy? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Potential Putin-Trump Summit: Discussion of a possible meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, its implications, and potential locations.
• Ukrainian Perspective: Concerns in Ukraine about being sidelined in negotiations and potential unfavorable settlements.
• Putin's Objectives: Analysis of Putin's motivations, including gaining time, avoiding sanctions, and achieving strategic goals in Ukraine.
• Conditions for Putin-Zelensky Meeting: Examination of the conditions Putin has set for a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky, including demilitarization and neutrality.
• US Policy Towards Russia: Assessment of whether US policy towards Russia has changed beyond rhetoric, particularly regarding sanctions.

1. Potential Putin-Trump Summit

• Meeting Possibility: The Russian president hosted his Emirati counterpart in Moscow, with the meeting overshadowed by the possibility of a summit with Donald Trump.
• Venue Suggestion: Putin indicated the United Arab Emirates could be a suitable venue for a summit with Trump, stating, "We have a lot of friends that are ready to help us organize such an event. Here is one of our friends, the president of the United Arab Emirates. I think we will decide later, but this could be one of the suitable venues."
• Timing: If the meeting occurs, it would be the first face-to-face talks between Putin and Trump in six years.
• Ukrainian Concerns: There are concerns that a meeting between Putin and Trump could sideline Ukraine and lead to a settlement unfavorable to Ukraine.

2. Ukrainian Perspective

• Desire for Direct Talks: President Zelensky has been pushing for a face-to-face meeting with Putin, arguing that peace negotiations can only be effectively discussed at the leadership level.
• Putin's Rejection: Putin has repeatedly rejected meeting with Zelensky, not recognizing him as a legitimate leader and having different plans for the war's end.
• Fear of Imposed Settlement: Ukrainians worry they might be forced to accept a settlement negotiated by the US, without their input.
• Zelensky's Strategy: Zelensky has been trying to keep Trump on side, particularly after a difficult visit to the White House, attempting to win over the Americans to Ukraine's perspective.
• Distrust of Putin: A Ukrainian resident of Kyiv expressed distrust of Putin, stating, "I don't trust Putin. I don't think he's taking this meeting seriously. He'll never make peace. He needs Ukraine. He wants to conquer it. So, I don't think anything good will come out of this meeting." They added, "It seems to me that to trust Putin is to not respect oneself. He understands everything only from a position of strength."

3. Putin's Objectives

• Playing for Time: Stefan Meister suggests Putin is "playing time" to prevent oil sanctions from the US and using the offer to meet Trump to win more time, rather than seeking a genuine ceasefire or negotiations.
• No Compromise: Meister notes the absence of any offer of compromise or steps towards bargaining from the Russian side.
• Gaining Territory: Russia is gaining more territory on the battlefield in Donbas.
• Legitimization: A meeting with Trump would be seen as a "kind of legitimization" of Putin, who has been trying to avoid isolation. Meister states, "there is a kind of recognition legitimization also of Putin and Putin is back in a way as a person to talk with."

4. Conditions for Putin-Zelensky Meeting

• Putin's Conditions: Putin states he is not opposed to meeting with Zelensky, but certain conditions must be met first.
• Demands: Meister outlines these conditions as the "usual conditions Russia demands," including "demilitarization and as they call it deazification of Ukraine," demands on European security, no NATO membership for Ukraine, and neutrality of Ukraine.
• Skepticism: Meister is skeptical that Putin will meet Zelensky at all, as he does not recognize his legitimacy as president.

5. US Policy Towards Russia

• Lack of Fundamental Change: Meister argues that apart from rhetoric, he doesn't see "really fundamental changes" in US policy towards Russia.
• Sanctions: Despite the ultimatum for oil sanctions, Meister notes the absence of concrete action from the US side to improve Ukraine's bargaining position.
• Putin's Perception: Meister suggests Putin does not believe Trump will sanction him and does not see any significant action from the US side.

Conclusion:

The potential Putin-Trump summit is viewed with concern in Ukraine, fearing a settlement imposed without their input. Analysts suggest Putin's motivations are to gain time, avoid sanctions, and achieve strategic goals in Ukraine, rather than seeking genuine peace. The conditions Putin has set for a meeting with Zelensky are seen as unrealistic and aimed at achieving Russia's long-term objectives. Despite tougher rhetoric, there is skepticism about whether US policy towards Russia has fundamentally changed, particularly regarding concrete actions like sanctions. The meeting, if it occurs, could be seen as a legitimization of Putin on the world stage.