What Americans think of Trump, the economy one year into second term

Key Concepts

• Polling: The process of surveying public opinion.
• Approval Rating: A measure of public support for a political figure's job performance.
• Inflation: A general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money.
• Political Base: A core group of loyal supporters for a political party or candidate.
• Migrant Crossings: The movement of people across international borders, often without authorization.

Economic Sentiment and Presidential Approval

Anthony Savanto, CBS News Executive Director of Elections and Surveys, presented new polling data on American sentiment. A primary focus was the economy, which remains a top issue.

• Personal Financial Situation & Inflation: Americans consistently report that their income is not keeping up with inflation and rising prices. This concern has been a "top issue throughout the year" and was a subject of discussion in the White House briefing room.
• Overall Approval Ratings & Party Breakdown: The president's overall approval rating has been stable for "some weeks." Analysis by party shows:
  • Republicans: "Really strong support."
  • Independents: "Less so," with "some declines over the course of the year."
  • Democrats: "Negative" approval.
• Approval Trend Over Time: The president's overall approval started with "a lot of optimism" at the beginning of the term. However, it began to "decline as people continued to say that prices were a factor," eventually settling into the "low mid then the low 40s."

Issue-Specific Performance Ratings

The polling also delved into how the president is rated on specific policy areas.

• Handling of Inflation and Economy: The president has received "lower ratings on handling inflation in the economy" throughout his term. This performance on economic issues has closely "tracked along with his overall approval."
• Immigration Policy Perception: In contrast to the economy, the president has received relatively better ratings on immigration. A December poll indicated that a "substantial majority of Americans... do say that the president's policies are making migrant crossings at the borders go down." This suggests a potential "success story" for the president to highlight.

Political Landscape for the Upcoming Election

With an election year approaching (referred to as 2026 in the transcript, likely a typo for 2024), the polling highlights key dynamics.

• Democratic Party Confidence: There is a notable trend among Democrats regarding their party's ability to challenge or oppose the president. "Increasingly, a lot of Democrats say no" when asked if they have confidence that their party and party in Congress can successfully challenge or oppose the president. This lack of confidence is deemed "important" for "get[ting] that base excited" and "motivated going into an election year."
• Comparative Approach on Key Issues: When voters are asked who has a "better approach" on critical issues like immigration policy and economic policy:
  • Donald Trump and the Republicans are "rating comparably better than Democrats."
  • This is observed even though "many are not sure or saying neither."
  • This finding suggests that voters are "looking to say, well, what is the alternative to this?"

Conclusion/Main Takeaways

The CBS News polling data reveals a challenging political environment for the current administration, primarily driven by persistent public concern over inflation and the economy, which has significantly impacted the president's overall approval, pushing it into the low 40s. While the president has a perceived positive outcome on reducing migrant crossings, this does not fully offset economic anxieties. Crucially, there is a growing lack of confidence among Democrats in their own party's ability to effectively challenge the president. Furthermore, when voters consider alternatives for key policy areas, Donald Trump and the Republicans are seen as having a better approach on both economic and immigration policies. These factors underscore the importance of economic messaging and base motivation as critical elements for the upcoming election cycle.