West is divided 'as it has never been before', former Russian diplomat says

Key Concepts

• Ukrainian Diplomacy: The diplomatic efforts and responses of Ukraine in the context of the conflict.
• European Union (EU) Role: The perceived limited and often sidelined role of the EU in international diplomatic processes concerning Russia and Ukraine.
• Moscow's Strategy: Russia's approach to negotiations and diplomacy, characterized by waiting for proposals and retaining the ultimate decision-making power.
• Leverage: The power or influence that one party has over another in negotiations.
• Western Division: The perceived disunity and internal divisions within the Western bloc (Europe and the US) regarding the conflict.
• Russian Diplomacy Effectiveness: The assessment of Russian diplomacy as professional and effective, particularly in contrast to the West's approach.
• Mindset Shift: The argument that the West needs to change its thinking from focusing on unwinnable scenarios to actively seeking victory.
• Winning vs. Stopping a War: The distinction between ending a conflict and achieving a decisive victory.

Analysis of Ukrainian Diplomacy and Western Response

Boris Bonderev, a former Russian diplomat who resigned in protest of the war in Ukraine, offers a critical perspective on the current diplomatic landscape. He characterizes the responses from Ukraine and Europe to American-Russian proposals as "not very serious" and a "desperate attempt not to be sidelined by Americans." Bonderev believes the European Union is deeply concerned about being excluded from the decision-making process, which he finds understandable given the EU's historically limited role in such matters.

Moscow's Strategic Position

From Moscow's viewpoint, Bonderev suggests they are content to observe these developments from a distance, awaiting proposals to which they can then make the final decision. This strategy, he argues, consistently places Vladimir Putin in a position of strength without requiring him to actively exert effort. The current situation, according to Bonderev, is largely a result of the West's own actions and inaction.

The "Russian Wish List" and European Leverage

The interviewer poses the question of whether the initial claims and peace plan were essentially a "Russian wish list imposed and dictated through the Americans." Bonderev shifts the focus from what Europeans would like to propose to what leverage they possess to insist on their demands and make Putin listen. He states, "For now, I don't see any leverage that United that European Union well and Europe including United Kingdom could use against Putin's demand, Putin's so-called maximalist goals which he doesn't surrender. He keeps and he keeps advancing on the battlefield, so to speak. So, it's all it's all blah blah blah for now."

Internal Russian Satisfaction and Western Conduct

Despite his resignation in opposition to the invasion, Bonderev suggests that within the Russian foreign service and the Kremlin, there is likely "quiet satisfaction" due to the perceived division within the Western camp. He describes this division as being "very seriously divided as it's never been before." The most advantageous aspect for Moscow, in his view, is that they "don't have to do anything. They just sit and wait."

When asked what this says about the way the West, Europe, and America have conducted themselves over the last three and a half years, Bonderev bluntly states, "Very unprofessional." He contrasts this with Russian diplomacy, which he believes is "very professional" and has a "long-standing record, a pretty effective uh diplomacy." He asserts that Russian diplomacy is "effectively running rings, you would say, around um the West at the moment."

Turning the Tables: The Problem of Mindset

The discussion then turns to how the West can regain initiative. Bonderev identifies the core problem not as a lack of leverage, but as a "problem with the mindset." He criticulates the prevailing narrative of an "unwinnable war" and the assertion that Russia, as a nuclear power, cannot be defeated. He dismisses this as "rubbish," arguing that it logically implies surrendering to any future Russian aggression.

Bonderev's central argument for a way out is for Europe to "stop this self-defeating thinking and must start thinking how this war should be won, not stopped, not just pushed aside, not frozen for indefinite time." He concludes this point with a stark dichotomy: "One. The wars are either won or lost. So, it's up to you what what what you prefer."

Conclusion

Boris Bonderev's insights paint a grim picture of the current diplomatic situation, highlighting a perceived strategic advantage for Russia stemming from Western disunity and a flawed mindset. He argues that the West, particularly Europe, needs a fundamental shift in perspective, moving away from notions of unwinnable conflicts towards a clear objective of winning the war. Without this change in thinking and a re-evaluation of their leverage, he suggests that current diplomatic efforts are largely ineffective.