'We will continue to support Ukraine's resistance', Macron says in joint speech • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• Security Guarantees for Ukraine: Ensuring Ukraine's safety and preventing future Russian aggression after a peace deal.
• Frozen Assets: Ukrainian assets held in Europe that Ukraine wishes to access.
• European Involvement in Negotiations: The necessity of European nations being present at the peace talks.
• Russian Demands: Concerns that a US-presented plan might concede to Russia's requirements.
• Ukrainian Priorities: Security guarantees and maintaining sovereignty.
• Russian Military Losses: Reports of significant Russian soldier casualties.
• Russian Territorial Gains: The extent of Russia's advances on the ground.
• Past Ceasefire Attempts: Russia's history of rejecting proposed peace deals.
• Russian Motivation: The belief that Russia aims to continue the war to gain more territory.
• Corruption Scandal in Ukraine: Recent allegations of corruption involving Ukrainian officials and its impact on negotiations.
• Ukrainian Response to Corruption: Framing the crackdown on corruption as a sign of progress and a contrast to Russia.

Diplomatic Efforts and Key Issues

The transcript details diplomatic discussions between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée Palace, focusing on efforts to secure a peace deal. A central theme was Macron's insistence on the presence of European nations at the negotiating table, contrasting with a US-presented plan that Western allies feared might risk caving to Russia's demands. Zelensky, meanwhile, emphasized Ukraine's priorities: ensuring security guarantees and maintaining sovereignty.

International affairs editor Philip Tur highlighted that despite the flurry of diplomatic activity, the leaders conveyed that any deal is still in its very early stages, with no immediate resolution expected. He identified three key issues discussed:

1. Security Guarantees for Ukraine: This was reiterated multiple times as crucial to ensure that Russia would not violate a signed peace deal and re-engage in aggression later. The goal is to establish a peaceful situation where Ukraine does not fear future Russian incursions.
2. Frozen Assets: Ukraine is keen to access its frozen assets held in Europe. Macron indicated that discussions are ongoing regarding these assets, estimated to be around $130 billion in total, but did not provide a timeline for their release or the specific amount Ukraine would receive.
3. French and European Support: Macron underscored France's unwavering commitment to supporting Ukraine, stating that France and Europe would not abandon or let Ukraine fall.

The Role of European Nations and US-Initiated Peace Plans

Macron specifically addressed the peace deal being negotiated in the United States, noting the upcoming meeting between Steve Wickoff and Vladimir Putin. He emphasized the need for European involvement alongside Russian-American talks, stating, "We can't have a peace deal for Ukraine without Vladimir Zelensky being at the table with the Russians to work out what that peace deal is going to be." This highlights a perspective that any peace agreement must be inclusive and directly involve Ukraine's leadership.

Ukrainian Military Situation and Russian Advances

When questioned about Ukrainian forces' losses, Zelensky reported that Russia had experienced its worst month, with approximately 25,000 soldiers killed. Regarding Russian territorial gains, he stated that while Russia might gain small amounts of ground on some days, Ukraine can reclaim it. He asserted that Russia is not making the significant advances it claims, suggesting the situation on the ground is not progressing as favorably for Russia as they portray.

Russia's Stance on Peace Negotiations

Philip Tur elaborated on Macron's point that Russia has a history of rejecting ceasefire attempts. He noted that Russia had previously walked away from four proposed deals and rejected others, including a 28-point peace plan put forward by the Russians that Ukraine had redrafted. Tur's analysis suggests that Steve Wickoff's meeting with Vladimir Putin is likely to result in a "no" from Russia. The core argument presented is that Russia's primary objective is to continue the war, believing it has more to gain territorially by prolonging the conflict rather than engaging in negotiations. Russia is perceived as unlikely to come to the negotiating table unless it faces significant losses on the ground or the threat of attacks on its own territory.

Corruption Scandal in Ukraine

The transcript also touches upon a corruption scandal that has recently embroiled several Ukrainian officials. When asked about its impact on negotiations and securing international support, both Macron and Zelensky were brief in their responses. Macron stated he could not comment as it is an internal Ukrainian issue. Zelensky declined to name individuals involved.

However, the scandal has occurred at a difficult time for Zelensky, with Andriy Yermak, his chief of staff and top negotiator, stepping down due to allegations related to the civilian nuclear sector. Yermak has been replaced by Rustam Umerov. The Ukrainian strategy, as interpreted by the transcript, is to frame this situation positively, presenting it as evidence of Ukraine's ability to combat corruption effectively, a capability they contrast with Russia. This is seen as an effort to "clean up its image" and demonstrate a commitment to good governance.

Conclusion

The discussions between Macron and Zelensky underscore the complex and protracted nature of the peace process. Key takeaways include the ongoing need for robust security guarantees for Ukraine, the potential for accessing frozen Russian assets in Europe, and the critical importance of European and Ukrainian participation in any peace negotiations. Russia's perceived reluctance to negotiate and its territorial ambitions remain significant obstacles. Furthermore, Ukraine is navigating a domestic corruption scandal, which it aims to leverage as a sign of its commitment to reform and a stark contrast to Russia's governance. The upcoming meetings with Russian officials are anticipated to provide further clarity on the immediate trajectory of the conflict.