We kept turkey prices the same in 2025: Stew Leonard Jr

Key Concepts

• Food Inflation: The general increase in the prices of food products.
• Turkey Prices: A key indicator for Thanksgiving meal costs.
• Meat Prices: Specifically, the significant increase in the cost of beef.
• Coffee Prices: Affected by drought conditions in major producing regions.
• Egg Prices: Highlighted as a "poster child" for inflation, though prices have stabilized.
• Dairy Prices: Milk and butter prices have seen decreases.
• Labor Costs: Increased hourly wages impacting overall operational costs.
• Energy Costs: Higher kilowatt-hour prices contributing to food prices.
• Tariffs: A minor factor contributing to price increases.
• Thanksgiving Meal Costs: Discussion on the affordability and typical pricing of a Thanksgiving dinner.
• "Thanksgiving in a Box": A pre-packaged meal offering for convenience.
• Food Trends: Influence of platforms like TikTok on culinary preferences.
• Butter Cone: A specific TikTok food trend involving dipping ice cream in butter.
• Generosity and Food Donations: Community efforts to support those in need during the holidays.

Food Inflation and Thanksgiving Meal Costs

Stu Leonard Jr., owner of eight grocery stores across Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey, provides insights into the current state of food prices, particularly in the context of Thanksgiving. Contrary to some reports, Leonard states that turkey prices have remained the same this year, and most retailers he speaks with are seeing similar pricing. He also notes that staples like mashed potatoes and gravy are roughly at last year's prices.

However, customers are expressing general concern about food prices. Leonard attributes this to several factors:

• Energy Costs: Kilowatt-hour prices are up by a third.
• Labor Costs: The company has a $22 per hour labor rate, impacting operational expenses, especially with a large staff involved in food preparation.

Specific Price Changes

Leonard highlights specific items with notable price fluctuations:

• Meat Prices: These are the highest he has ever seen in his 50-year career. He specifically mentions Tomahawk steaks as an example, indicating that consumers will not find bargains on meat currently.
• Coffee: Prices are up by approximately $2 per pound. This increase is attributed to tremendous droughts in Colombia and Brazil, major coffee-producing regions.
• Milk: A half-gallon of milk is down by a dollar.
• Butter: Prices are down by a dollar, with expectations of high demand during the holiday weekend.
• Eggs: Leonard refers to eggs as the "poster child for inflation," acknowledging their significant price increases in the past. He recommends pasture-raised eggs for their flavor and quality, with cage-free being the next best option.

Overall Price Perception vs. Reality

Leonard states that overall prices are about the same as last year, and his stores operate on thin margins. While tariffs have slightly increased prices, suppliers absorb the majority of this cost. Despite this, he acknowledges that customers feel that eating is more expensive.

Thanksgiving Meal Pricing Discrepancies

Leonard disputes the reported $55 10-person Thanksgiving meal cost, calling it unrealistic. He contrasts this with:

• Stew Leonard's "Thanksgiving in a Box": A dinner for 8, including pie and rolls, priced at $200, which equates to $25 per person.
• Inexpensive Options: He suggests that very low-cost meals, potentially around $10, might involve frozen turkeys and canned vegetables, similar to what might be found at a retailer like Walmart.

He advises consumers to opt for fresh, free-range turkeys and to prepare mashed potatoes from scratch for a better quality meal. Leonard concludes that Thanksgiving remains the most inexpensive holiday meal of the year and expresses optimism that grocery prices are showing signs of relief.

Food Trends and TikTok Influence

The conversation shifts to current food trends, with a particular focus on the influence of TikTok. Leonard highlights a trend he has embraced:

• Butter Cone: This trend involves dipping an ice cream cone in butter and then adding a sprinkle of salt. Leonard notes that 16 million people have watched this on TikTok, indicating its popularity. He shares a personal anecdote of his daughters trying it, with one describing it as an "explosion of butter and salt."

Community Generosity and Holiday Wishes

Leonard expresses gratitude for the generosity of customers who donate food and turkeys to those in need. Stew Leonard's has given away thousands of turkeys. He extends thanks to all Americans who are helping the needy during the holiday season. He wishes everyone a Happy Thanksgiving.

Conclusion

Stu Leonard Jr. provides a grounded perspective on food prices, differentiating between general consumer perception and the reality of specific product costs. While acknowledging increased energy and labor expenses, he emphasizes that core Thanksgiving meal components like turkey have remained stable. He highlights significant price hikes in meat and coffee due to specific market conditions, while dairy prices have decreased. Leonard also touches upon the influence of social media on food trends and underscores the importance of community generosity during the holiday season. He concludes with a hopeful outlook on stabilizing grocery prices and a warm wish for a Happy Thanksgiving.