'We have to face climate change' in the prism of a world 'wrecked' by conflicts and injustice

Key Concepts

• Geoengineering: Deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth's natural systems to counteract climate change.
• Solar Radiation Modification (SRM): A type of geoengineering involving spraying aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight and cool the planet.
• Greenhouse Gas Removal: Technologies and methods aimed at extracting greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.
• Paris Agreement: An international treaty adopted in 2015 to combat climate change, aiming to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.
• COP (Conference of the Parties): Annual meetings of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) where countries negotiate climate action.
• Aerosols: Tiny solid particles or liquid droplets suspended in the atmosphere.
• Ozone Layer: A region of Earth's stratosphere that absorbs most of the Sun's ultraviolet (UV) radiation.
• Rebound Effect: The potential for a rapid increase in temperature if geoengineering interventions are stopped.
• Ocean Acidification: The ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth's oceans, caused by the uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere.
• Renewable Energies: Energy derived from natural sources that are replenished at a higher rate than they are consumed, such as solar or wind.
• Electrification: The process of converting energy systems to use electricity.
• Deforestation: The clearing or removal of forests or stands of trees.
• Carbon Markets: Systems that allow for the trading of permits or allowances for the emission of greenhouse gases.
• Kyoto Protocol: An international treaty that commits state parties to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, adopted in 1997.

Geoengineering: A Risky Path to Climate Control

The discussion centers on geoengineering as a potential, albeit concerning, response to global warming, particularly as international consensus on limiting temperature rise falters. Fabio Dandrea, Director of the Geoscience Department at the UN in Paris and a climatologist, elaborates on the concept and its implications.

What is Geoengineering?

Geoengineering encompasses a range of interventions in Earth's systems. One prominent and "particularly worrying" aspect is Solar Radiation Modification (SRM). This method involves spraying aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight and thus cool the planet. While the goal is to keep temperatures at human-manageable levels, Dandrea highlights significant unknowns and potential negative consequences.

Concerns and Risks of Solar Radiation Modification

• Unknown Consequences: The long-term effects of introducing aerosols into the stratosphere are not fully understood.
• Rebound Effect: SRM requires continuous application. If stopped, there could be a rapid and severe temperature increase, known as a rebound effect.
• Precipitation and Drought Patterns: SRM could unpredictably alter rainfall patterns and exacerbate drought conditions.
• Photosynthesis Impact: The shading effect of aerosols might negatively impact plant photosynthesis.
• Historical Precedent: Dandrea recalls past efforts to limit aerosols due to their damage to the ozone layer, noting that the current proposal involves different types of aerosols with a radiative effect.
• Uncontrolled Actors: The existence of private and state actors with the financial capacity to implement such schemes raises concerns about their potential misuse by "wackos."
• Not a Solution: SRM would not address issues like ocean acidification, which is directly linked to atmospheric CO2 levels. It is therefore not a comprehensive solution, even in the short term.

Progress and Challenges in Climate Negotiations

Dandrea provides an overview of the progress made since the Paris Agreement in 2015.

• Positive Trend: Before Paris, the world was projected to warm by 3-4 degrees Celsius. Current pledges suggest a warming of 2.6-2.8 degrees Celsius, indicating that progress is possible.
• COP Importance: COPs are crucial for setting ambitious objectives. Some countries, like China and the European Union, have increased their pledges.
• Political Climate Concerns: The shift in political climate, particularly referencing the Trump administration's stance on climate change, is detrimental to negotiations and investment in transition technologies.
• Energy Transition: Despite political hurdles, an energy transition is underway, with renewable energies becoming cheaper and more prevalent. The focus should be on embracing this transition rather than being left behind.

Beyond Renewable Energy: A Multifaceted Approach

While the transition from fossil fuels to cleaner technologies is essential, Dandrea emphasizes that it is not the sole solution.

• Energy Production and Usage: The transition involves changes in energy production and increased electrification of various uses.
• Consumption Reduction: A critical, yet often overlooked, aspect is the need to reduce overall consumption of energy, particularly in transport and daily habits.

Interconnectedness of Global Issues

The conversation touches upon the broader context of global conflicts and injustices, and how climate change exacerbates these issues.

• Climate as an Aggravating Factor: Climate change adds to existing global complexities and suffering. Its effects will be intertwined with conflicts and injustices worldwide.
• The Amazon's Role: The COP 30 being hosted in the Amazon, a vital carbon sink, is significant. While deforestation is a major concern leading to emissions, the Amazon still plays a role in removing CO2, albeit less effectively due to rising temperatures.

Carbon Markets and Monetary Valuation of Environment

The effectiveness of turning the environment into a monetary asset, such as through carbon markets, is questioned.

• Kyoto Protocol Experiment: Experiments with carbon markets under the Kyoto Protocol are not considered to have been highly effective.
• Focus on Deforestation: The primary struggle in the Amazon is against deforestation, which directly emits greenhouse gases.

Conclusion

The discussion underscores the urgency of addressing climate change through ambitious policy, technological innovation, and a reduction in consumption. While geoengineering offers a theoretical pathway to immediate temperature reduction, its inherent risks and unknown consequences make it a deeply concerning prospect. The focus remains on accelerating the energy transition, promoting sustainable consumption, and tackling the root causes of climate change through international cooperation, despite the challenging political landscape.