We don't see a recession in 2026, says Carson Group's Ryan Detrick

Key Concepts

• Global Bull Market: The assertion that the current bull market is not limited to the US, but is a worldwide phenomenon.
• Valuations: Concerns about stretched valuations, particularly in the US market.
• Diversification: The importance of a diversified portfolio, with exposure to international markets and commodities.
• American Exceptionalism: The questioning of the long-held belief that US markets will consistently outperform globally.
• Commodity Exposure: The strategic inclusion of commodities like silver and copper in a portfolio.
• Bull Market Duration: Historical analysis of bull market lengths, suggesting potential for continued growth.

Market Outlook for 2026: A Global Perspective

Introduction

The discussion centers on the outlook for financial markets in 2026, following a year of significant gains. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, presents a bullish perspective, emphasizing a global bull market and the importance of diversification. The conversation acknowledges stretched valuations, particularly in the US, but argues for continued opportunity both domestically and internationally.

Historical Market Performance & Unusual Year-End Trend

Detrick begins by noting an unusual market phenomenon: the last trading day of the year being down for five consecutive years – a record never previously observed. This sets a cautious tone despite the overall bullish outlook. He acknowledges that valuations are “stretched,” a sentiment that would have been true 12 months prior as well.

The Case for a Global Bull Market

The core argument is that the current bull market is “global,” not solely a US phenomenon. Detrick highlights strong performance in Europe, with the German DAX breaking out to levels not seen since 2007. Emerging markets are also trading at levels comparable to the 2007 peak. He stresses that while some areas may be “cheap for a reason,” the global recovery and re-acceleration are real, presenting opportunities for investors. He states, “If you don’t like some of the parts of US, we think there’s a lot of opportunity around the globe in 2026 as well.”

International Outperformance & Challenging American Exceptionalism

The conversation addresses the recent shift in international market performance. Historically, there was a belief in “American exceptionalism,” predicting continued US outperformance. However, in 2025, international markets outperformed the US. Detrick posits that this trend could continue, potentially becoming “more dramatic” in 2026. Europe, specifically, outperformed the US by almost 40% in the past year – the largest margin in 20 years. He acknowledges the historical tendency for US markets to dominate, but suggests, quoting Sir John Templeton, “This time is different.”

Asset Class Performance in 2025 & Seeking Balance

The year 2025 saw strong performance across multiple asset classes: gold, silver, domestic stocks, and international stocks. Bonds, as measured by the Barclays AG, also experienced a significant rebound, achieving its best year since 2020 with a 7% gain. This widespread success raises the question of where to find balance in 2026.

Strategic Asset Allocation & Commodity Exposure

Detrick advocates for maintaining exposure to equities, noting that the average bull market lasts eight years (with a minimum of five), and the US bull market is currently in its fourth year. However, he advises against blindly going “all in” on stocks. He recommends increasing commodity exposure, citing breakouts in silver (despite a recent 10% drop) and copper to levels not seen in decades as potentially “legit and real.” Carson Group’s portfolio strategy includes a small allocation to managed futures and commodities, while remaining “underweight bonds relative to stocks.”

Technical Terms & Concepts

• DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex): The principal stock market index for Germany.
• Barclays AG: A benchmark for aggregate bond performance.
• Managed Futures: Investment strategies utilizing futures contracts, often employed for diversification and hedging.
• Bull Market: A period of sustained increase in asset prices.
• Valuations: The process of determining the economic worth of an asset or company.
• Commodities: Raw materials or primary agricultural products that can be bought and sold, such as gold, silver, and copper.

Logical Connections & Synthesis

The conversation flows logically from acknowledging recent market gains to questioning the sustainability of US dominance and advocating for a globally diversified approach. The historical context of bull market durations provides a framework for assessing potential future performance. The discussion emphasizes that while valuations are stretched, the global recovery and re-acceleration justify continued optimism, but with a strategic focus on diversification and commodity exposure.

Key Takeaways

The primary takeaway is that investors should consider a global perspective in 2026, recognizing the potential for continued outperformance in international markets. While the US market remains important, diversification into international equities and commodities is crucial for balancing risk and capitalizing on global growth opportunities. The assertion that “this time is different” suggests a departure from historical patterns, warranting a re-evaluation of traditional investment strategies.