‘We cannot let Iran be our spokesperson’: Lebanon charts own path in talks with Israel

Key Concepts

• State Monopoly on Force: The principle that only the official Lebanese state, not non-state actors or militias, should possess and exercise military power.
• UN Resolution 1701: The framework governing the cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel, which the Lebanese government seeks to uphold.
• Non-State Actor: Refers to Hezbollah, a militia group operating within Lebanon that complicates formal state-to-state negotiations.
• Conditional Return: The current reality for displaced Lebanese citizens who briefly return to conflict zones to assess property damage rather than permanently resettling.
• Sovereign Negotiation Track: The effort by the Lebanese government to decouple its diplomatic path from Iranian influence to establish direct, state-led negotiations with Israel.

1. Diplomatic Objectives in Paris

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is currently in Paris to lobby for international support. His primary objectives include:

• Legitimacy and Funding: Seeking financial support, humanitarian aid, and conditional backing from the EU and France.
• Security and Ceasefire: Discussing the implementation of ceasefire discipline and the restoration of the Lebanese state’s authority.
• State Sovereignty: A core argument presented is the rejection of "dual authority." The Lebanese government is asserting that it must be the sole entity responsible for security, effectively moving to end regional interference by non-state actors.

2. The Role of Hezbollah and Non-State Actors

A significant challenge in the current peace process is the presence of Hezbollah.

• The "10-Point Agreement": This framework explicitly states that there is no war between the states of Lebanon and Israel; rather, the conflict is driven by militia groups within Lebanon.
• Security Incidents: The killing of a French peacekeeper in southern Lebanon has complicated relations. While some sources blame pro-Hezbollah militants, the Lebanese government is using this as a catalyst to emphasize the necessity of a state monopoly on force to prevent further regional instability.

3. Humanitarian Crisis and Displacement

Jad Shahrour describes the situation in southern Lebanon as "catastrophic":

• Scale of Occupation: The number of villages occupied by Israeli forces has surged from five in early 2024 to 55.
• Displacement Reality: Many displaced citizens are living in tents. While some are returning to their homes during the 10-day ceasefire, these are "conditional returns"—short trips to assess whether their homes are destroyed or to retrieve personal belongings, rather than a return to normalcy.
• Public Sentiment: There is a pervasive sense of "dashed hopes" and extreme tension. Despite the fear, Shahrour notes that the population views the negotiations as the only viable path forward, as there are no other alternatives to end the violence.

4. Strategic Decoupling from Iran

A critical perspective presented is the need for Lebanon to separate its diplomatic track from the US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad.

• The Argument: Shahrour argues that Lebanon must act as a "state of institutions." Relying on Iran as a spokesperson undermines Lebanese sovereignty.
• The Goal: By creating a separate, direct line of negotiation with Israel, Lebanon aims to control its own destiny and ensure that the terms of peace reflect the needs of the Lebanese state rather than the regional agenda of its patrons.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The current diplomatic efforts represent a pivotal moment for Lebanon. The government is attempting to transition from a state influenced by non-state actors and regional proxies to a sovereign entity capable of enforcing a ceasefire and managing its own security. The success of these negotiations hinges on four pillars:

1. Strict adherence to a ceasefire.
2. The safe return of detainees and displaced persons.
3. The reconstruction of the south.
4. The formalization of a security agreement that respects the 1701 resolution.

While the mood remains tense and the process is expected to be slow, the Lebanese government is prioritizing the establishment of a state-led negotiation track to ensure long-term stability and the cessation of hostilities.