‘We can't do without them’: Kim Beazley on support for the US-Aus alliance slipping

Key Concepts

• National Defense Strategy (NDS): Australia’s updated framework focusing on increased investment in drones, missiles, and nuclear-powered submarines.
• Rules-Based Order: The international system of laws and norms that Australia advocates for, despite its perceived fragility.
• Middle Power Diplomacy: The role of nations like Australia in acting as interlocutors between regional powers and the United States.
• Capital Ship: A primary naval vessel (e.g., nuclear-powered submarine) that dictates maritime strategy and deterrence.
• Capabilities vs. Intentions: A core defense doctrine where military planning prioritizes an adversary's potential power over their stated diplomatic goals.
• NATO Defense Spending Benchmark: A standardized metric for defense expenditure, now adopted by Australia, which includes military pensions and other costs.

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1. The Strategic Environment

Kim Beazley characterizes the current global climate as the most dangerous since World War II. Key drivers include:

• Military Buildup: China’s rapid expansion and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
• Global Conflict: A record level of active combat globally, necessitating a shift in how middle powers like Australia approach national security.
• US Alliance Dynamics: The unpredictability of the second Trump administration, characterized by shifting positions and public criticism of allies, creates a "very difficult" operating environment for Australian policymakers.

2. The US Alliance and Regional Role

Beazley argues that the US alliance is "absolutely vital" for Australia’s security, specifically for:

• Target Acquisition: Australia lacks the independent capacity to replicate the sophisticated surveillance and targeting systems provided by the US.
• Regional Conduit: While regional neighbors may criticize Australia’s close ties to the US, they value Australia as a reliable interlocutor that provides a bridge to Washington.
• Operational Integration: Australia’s commitment in the Gulf (e.g., deploying E-7 surveillance aircraft) is described as "indivisible" from US operations, providing critical battle management data that benefits the entire region.

3. Nuclear-Powered Submarines (AUKUS)

Beazley defends the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines as essential for modern deterrence:

• Capital Ship Status: He compares the strategic value of a Virginia-class submarine to the historical HMAS Australia battle cruiser, noting that their presence alone forces adversaries to reconsider hostile actions.
• Deterrence: He emphasizes that the ability to "disappear rapidly" and strike from distance makes these vessels less vulnerable than other assets, despite the rise of underwater drones.
• Technology Transfer: Acknowledging the difficulty of obtaining this technology, he notes that Australia’s ability to host and maintain US submarines at HMAS Stirling is a significant contribution to the alliance.

4. Modern Warfare: Drones and Missiles

The strategy reflects a shift toward high-tech, unmanned, and long-range capabilities:

• Ghost Bat & Ghost Shark: These Australian-invented unmanned systems (air and underwater) are highlighted as "world’s best practice."
• Force Multipliers: Drones like the Ghost Bat can operate in conjunction with manned aircraft (e.g., F-35s), enhancing fleet capacity without risking additional human lives.
• Missile Stockpiles: Lessons from the Middle East indicate that modern conflicts consume missiles at an unsustainable rate. Australia is moving toward domestic production to ensure supply chain security and potential export opportunities for the US.

5. Defense Spending and Economic Frameworks

• Shift to NATO Benchmarks: Australia has moved to the NATO method of calculating defense spending, which includes military pensions. This puts Australia at 2.8% of GDP, with a target of 3% by 2033.
• The "Betterment" Factor: Historically, defense budgets were determined by baseline expenditure plus a "betterment factor" (1–3% increase). Beazley notes that defense spending is often a victim of political cycles, where it receives high salience during war but low priority during peace.
• Fiscal Constraints: Beazley attributes Australia’s lower public spending on defense compared to Europe to the difference in indirect taxation (e.g., Australia’s 10% GST vs. the EU average of 21%).

6. The Rules-Based Order

Despite skepticism from some global leaders who view the rules-based order as a "polite fiction," Beazley argues:

• Essential for Middle Powers: It is far more critical for medium-sized nations than for great powers.
• Practical Application: He cites the example of Indonesian fishermen respecting maritime boundaries as evidence that the rules-based order is observed in practice, even if it is under strain at the geopolitical level.
• Strategic Planning: He advises that while diplomats should defend the order, defense ministers must plan based on the capabilities of adversaries, assuming the rules-based order may not always hold.

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Synthesis

The core takeaway is that Australia is navigating a precarious transition. While the government is evolving its defense strategy to include more drones, missiles, and nuclear-powered submarines, it remains tethered to a US alliance that is currently experiencing significant volatility. Kim Beazley’s perspective underscores a pragmatic reality: Australia must continue to advocate for international rules while simultaneously preparing for a world where those rules are ignored, relying on high-tech deterrence and deep integration with the United States to maintain national sovereignty.