We are living through a slowdown in human progress | Jason Crawford

Key Concepts

• Idea of Progress: The belief that history is an upward curve of improvement, driven by human ingenuity and discovery.
• Cyclical/Declinist History: The view that history is repetitive or a decline from a past golden age.
• Empirical Method: A scientific approach based on observation and experimentation.
• Feedback Loops: Mechanisms where progress in one area fuels further progress in others, leading to acceleration.
• Technological Revolutions: Periods of rapid and fundamental advancements in technology that transform society.
• Naive Optimism: The belief that progress in science and technology automatically leads to moral and social improvement and peace.
• Costs and Risks of Progress: The negative consequences and dangers associated with technological and societal advancement.
• Progress Slowdown: A perceived decrease in the rate of fundamental technological and economic breakthroughs in recent decades.
• Virtuous Cycle of Progress: The positive feedback loop between making progress, believing in progress, investing in progress, and making even more progress.

The Historical Evolution of the Idea of Progress

Pre-Modern Views of History

For the majority of human history, the concept of progress as an upward trajectory was not prevalent. Instead, societies generally viewed history through a cyclical lens, seeing it as a series of recurring events with ups and downs. Alternatively, a declinist narrative was common, positing a past "golden age" from which humanity had fallen and was likely to continue to decline.

The Emergence of Progress in the West

The idea of progress began to shift in the West around the 15th and 16th centuries. This period was marked by a significant debate about whether contemporary individuals could surpass the achievements of the ancients. People looked back to the accomplishments of ancient Greece and Rome, such as Roman concrete, the Colosseum, aqueducts, and Egyptian pyramids, leading some to believe that ancients were "moral and intellectual giants" whose work could only be studied and reinterpreted, not surpassed.

The Role of Discovery and Francis Bacon

The voyages of discovery, which expanded geographical knowledge and revealed new continents, began to challenge this static view. This expansion of knowledge fostered the belief that new discoveries and inventions were possible. Francis Bacon, an English philosopher of the late 16th and early 17th centuries, was a key proponent of this new perspective. He argued that the ancients were unaware of many significant discoveries, such as the Americas, gunpowder, the magnetic compass, and the Gutenberg movable type printing press (invented in the 1400s). Bacon posited that if the ancients missed so much, there were likely many more discoveries to be made. He advocated for an empirical method in science, emphasizing systematic observation and experimentation, as the key to unlocking new knowledge and creating new inventions that would "endow human life with new abilities and powers."

The Industrial Revolution and Accelerating Progress

Bacon's predictions took approximately 200 years to fully materialize, culminating in the Industrial Revolution. The 17th and 18th centuries saw gradual advancements in science, including Newton's theory of universal gravitation and developments in chemistry. By the 19th century, the Industrial Revolution brought about a cascade of transformative inventions like the railroad, telegraph, telephone, and light bulb. By the end of the 19th century, it was evident that Bacon's vision of progress was a reality, profoundly impacting daily life.

The Accelerating Nature of Progress

Feedback Loops and Self-Reinforcing Cycles

A fundamental characteristic of progress is its tendency to accelerate. This is driven by feedback loops, where advancements in one area create the conditions for further progress. For example, early industrial technologies like coal, steam power, iron, and locomotives were mutually reinforcing. Locomotives, made of iron and powered by steam from coal, were essential for transporting coal and iron ore. Steam power was used in manufacturing processes that produced iron goods.

This principle is evident today with computers and software, which are used to design better computers, creating a self-reinforcing cycle.

Population Growth and Intellectual Capital

Population growth also contributes to accelerating progress. As the human population grows, so does the pool of individuals working on problems, including scientists, researchers, inventors, and entrepreneurs. This increased intellectual capital fuels innovation.

The Virtuous Cycle of Belief and Investment

Furthermore, the very idea of progress itself creates a virtuous cycle. Making progress fosters a belief in future progress, which in turn motivates investment in research and development, leading to even more progress.

The Optimism and Naivete of the Early 20th Century

A Period of Unprecedented Optimism

The late 19th and early 20th centuries were characterized by immense optimism. Industrial progress, technological innovation, and scientific discovery were viewed as an unstoppable force for good, improving lives universally.

Counter-Currents and Romantic Backlash

Despite this prevailing optimism, dissenting voices existed. Philosophers like Rousseau in the 1750s argued that societal and moral progress was inversely proportional to advancements in arts and sciences. This "romantic backlash" against science, technology, and industry persisted.

Naive Assumptions About Progress

However, many were naive about the nature of progress. They viewed it as automatic and inevitable, assuming that moral and social progress would naturally accompany scientific and technological advancements. This led to the belief that industrial growth and expanded communication would usher in an era of world peace.

The Shattering of Illusions and the Rise of Skepticism

The World Wars and the Dark Side of Technology

The World Wars of the 20th century violently disproved these naive illusions. Technology, far from ending war, had made it more destructive, introducing weapons like machine guns, chemical weapons, and the atomic bomb.

New Challenges and Concerns

Beyond warfare, the 20th century brought other significant challenges:

• Worldwide depression: Economic instability.
• Rise of totalitarianism: Political ideologies that suppressed individual freedoms.
• Environmental concerns: Pollution and harm to human health.
• Safety hazards of technology: New risks associated with technological development.

The Countercultural Movement and the Questioning of Progress

These negative consequences fueled strong countercultural voices and a romantic backlash against the very idea of progress. The sentiment emerged that "modernity was a mistake," that "progress itself is the problem," and that humanity should "slow it down or stop it or or even go backwards."

Acknowledging the Costs and Risks of Progress

The Reality of Progress's Downsides

The speaker acknowledges that the costs and risks of progress are real and that progress is often "messy." Denying these realities or claiming progress is always and everywhere good is unproductive.

The Need for Steering and Mitigation

To foster human life, flourishing, and well-being, it is crucial to acknowledge the costs and risks of progress and actively work to solve the problems they create. This involves steering progress and mitigating its negative impacts.

The Perceived Slowdown in Progress

A Temporary Slowdown?

The speaker expresses hope that the perceived slowdown in scientific, technological, and economic progress over the last 50 years is temporary. Initially skeptical, the speaker's research into the history of progress has led to the conclusion that this slowdown is likely true.

Areas of Stagnation vs. Continued Growth

While information technology (computers and software) has seen continuous progress, other fundamental areas have not experienced the same pace of advancement:

• Manufacturing
• Construction
• Transportation
• Energy

In these sectors, the speaker argues, we are largely still using the same fundamental technologies from the 1960s and 1970s, such as fossil fuel-based electricity and the internal combustion engine. While incremental improvements in cost, safety, and efficiency have occurred, there haven't been the same "massive paradigm shifts" seen in earlier periods.

Comparing Technological Revolutions

To illustrate this point, the speaker contrasts two 50-year periods:

• 1870-1920: This period saw approximately five major revolutions:

  1. Electrical Industry: Generators, electric motors, light bulbs.
  2. Internal Combustion Engine: Automobiles and airplanes.
  3. Information Technology: Telephone and radio.
  4. Synthetic Chemistry: Plastics and synthetic fertilizer.
  5. Public Health: Germ theory, sanitation, vaccines, leading to decreased mortality.

• 1970-2020: This period, according to the speaker's count, saw one or possibly two revolutions:

  1. Information Technology: Computers and the internet.
  2. Genetic Engineering/Biology: (Potentially counted as a second revolution).

Areas like energy, manufacturing, and transportation have not experienced comparable breakthroughs in this later period.

The Importance of Belief and Investment in Progress

Progress is Not Automatic

The lesson from this relative slowdown is that progress is not automatic or inevitable. It does not simply "barrel along."

Progress Depends on Human Agency

Progress depends on human choices, on believing in progress, and on investing in it. Each generation must "pick up that torch of progress and and carry it forward."

The Future is Built on Belief

The speaker emphasizes that "If nobody believes in the future, then nobody's going to build it."

The Potential for a Flourishing Future

A Future as Well-Off as the Present is to the Past

The speaker's core belief is that the future can be as well-off relative to the present as the present is compared to the past. In 1800, extreme poverty was the norm; today, it is a small fraction of the global population. Life expectancy has more than doubled.

Shifting Perceptions of "Normal"

What is considered "normal" changes. In the past, lacking a refrigerator, electricity, or indoor plumbing was normal because no one had them. Similarly, people today do not perceive themselves as living in extreme poverty because their current conditions are their norm.

A Vision of Future Abundance

The speaker envisions a future where people 200 years from now will look back at our current lives and exclaim, "I cannot believe they lived that way." This future could be filled with inventions and advancements that seem like science fiction today, such as artificial intelligence, genetic engineering, fusion energy, space colonization, and interstellar travel. These future technologies, once realized, will be considered essential.