‘Waymo is now on 5th generation technology’, says former CEO

Autonomous Driving & Mobility: Insights from CES 2024 & Beyond

Key Concepts:

• L4 Autonomy: Level 4 autonomous driving, signifying high automation where the vehicle can handle all driving tasks in specific conditions.
• Simulation Miles: Virtual miles driven in simulated environments used for testing and refining autonomous systems.
• Vulnerable Road Users: Pedestrians, cyclists, and other non-vehicle road users requiring heightened safety considerations.
• Safety Case: The documented evidence and arguments demonstrating the safety of an autonomous system.
• Construction Autonomy: The application of autonomous technology to construction tasks.
• Nvidia Alpha Mayo: A simulation platform developed by Nvidia for training and validating autonomous driving systems.

I. Waymo’s Progress & Current Status

The interview centers around the advancements of Waymo, highlighting its journey from initial testing to commercial deployment. Waymo has achieved 120 million miles of fully autonomous driving and has completed 20 million rides to date. A key achievement is a 10x safety improvement over human drivers, a goal initially considered ambitious seven years ago. The speaker notes witnessing a growing presence of Waymo vehicles, observing three in a row in Los Angeles and confirming Waymo’s recent approval to operate in Nevada, including a sighting at the Las Vegas airport. The speaker emphasizes that, as of the interview, Waymo remains the only company operating fully autonomously and generating revenue on US streets.

II. The Expanding Landscape of Mobility at CES 2024

CES 2024 is described as a hub of innovation, with approximately 15,000 seeds of innovation on display. Two key areas of mobility development are discussed: construction autonomy and advancements in electric vehicle (EV) technology through Rivian.

• Construction Autonomy with Bedrock Robotics: The speaker is involved with Bedrock Robotics, led by Boris Softman (formerly a key leader at Waymo’s trucking division). Bedrock focuses on automating construction equipment, a field considered to have a more defined safety case than public road autonomy. The rationale is that automating construction can address critical infrastructure needs – data centers, buildings, and housing – more rapidly.
• Rivian’s Advancements: The speaker is on the board of Rivian and praises the progress under CEO R.J. Scaring. James Filin, who previously led the transition from Waymo’s fourth to fifth-generation technology, now leads Rivian’s autonomy group.

III. The Role of Simulation in Autonomous Development

The discussion addresses the impact of Nvidia’s Alpha Mayo, a platform enabling the pre-programming of millions of simulations for autonomous vehicle testing. While acknowledging its potential for assisted driving, the speaker emphasizes that Waymo was already utilizing extensive simulation – approximately 25 billion miles – alongside its 10 million real-world miles during their early development stages (around 2018-2019). Simulation was identified as the source of approximately 90% of the changes to Waymo’s autonomous stack. The speaker views Nvidia’s advancements in simulation as a positive development, recognizing the power of this approach.

IV. Competitive Landscape & Future Adoption

Several companies are entering the autonomous driving space, including Lucid, Uber (through Nuero), and Tesla. However, the speaker asserts that Waymo currently has no direct competitor in the US offering fully autonomous, revenue-generating services. Zook is mentioned as a company making progress, but is urged to prioritize safety.

The speaker highlights the importance of prioritizing safety over commercial success, stating, "You can't invert those two things. You try and make money too quickly and you put customers lives at risk or pedestrians at risk or other road users at risk. That could be a real problem."

V. Barriers to Widespread Adoption & The “Magic” of the Experience

The primary barrier to widespread adoption is identified as simply getting Waymo vehicles into more cities and communities. The speaker believes that a single ride – taking approximately 3.2 seconds to change a passenger’s perspective – is enough to demonstrate the technology’s value. The experience is described as “magical,” akin to a Disney experience, allowing passengers to be “distracted passengers” rather than “distracted drivers,” significantly enhancing road safety. The speaker notes that Waymo is actively working to address concerns in local communities and demonstrate the technology’s safety record.

VI. Logical Connections & Synthesis

The conversation flows logically from Waymo’s current achievements to the broader trends in autonomous mobility. The discussion of Bedrock Robotics and Rivian demonstrates the speaker’s involvement in multiple facets of the industry. The emphasis on simulation highlights a critical element of autonomous development, connecting Waymo’s early practices to the advancements being made by companies like Nvidia. The recurring theme of safety underscores the speaker’s belief that it is the foundational element for successful and responsible deployment of autonomous technology.

Conclusion:

The interview paints a picture of a rapidly evolving autonomous driving landscape. While challenges remain, Waymo has established a significant lead in fully autonomous operation. The speaker emphasizes the importance of prioritizing safety, leveraging simulation, and addressing community concerns to unlock the full potential of this transformative technology. The expansion into areas like construction autonomy suggests a broader application of autonomous systems beyond passenger vehicles, promising significant benefits across various industries.