Wargaming WW3: how and where the next global conflict could actually unfold

Key Concepts

• Elevated Risk of Global Conflict: The world faces a 30-35% chance of a world war within the next decade, a risk higher than generally acknowledged.
• Multiple Flashpoints: Taiwan and the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and the Suwalki Gap) are identified as the most likely ignition points for a larger conflict.
• Erosion of Deterrence: A perceived decline in consistent US commitment to global security and a lack of clear “red lines” could embolden adversaries.
• Modern Warfare Complexity: Future conflicts will likely involve a blend of conventional and non-conventional warfare, including cyberattacks, space-based assets, and attacks on critical infrastructure.
• Public Perception & Preparedness: A significant challenge lies in raising public awareness of the threat without inducing panic, as societal mobilization typically occurs only when conflict is imminent.

Historical Context & Parallels

Peter Apps’ book, The Next World War: The New Age of Global Conflict and the Fight to Stop It, forms the basis of the discussion. Apps argues the current geopolitical climate mirrors the anxieties of the early Cold War more closely than the 1930s, though acknowledging similarities to both periods. He stresses the importance of learning from past successes – particularly the post-WWII era’s success in averting large-scale conflict – and failures. Historical examples used include the Korean War (successful containment through US commitment), WWII (debates over its true start date – 1939 vs. Japanese occupation of Manchuria), the Falklands War (UK’s vulnerability via shipping), and George Orwell’s observation of pre-war England’s complacency. Apps draws on his experience as a war reporter in Sri Lanka to illustrate the speed with which conflict can escalate.

Potential Flashpoints & Strategic Vulnerabilities

Taiwan is highlighted as a particularly vulnerable region, based on Apps’ research during a visit in early 2024. The Baltic states, specifically Estonia and Latvia, and the Suwalki Gap (the land border between Poland and Lithuania) are identified as potential invasion routes for Russia. The deployment of a German brigade to the Suwalki Gap is noted as a defensive measure. The UK’s reliance on shipping is also flagged as a significant vulnerability, drawing parallels to “Yubot brigades” (likely a mispronunciation of "U-boat brigades") and WWII submarine warfare.

The Changing Nature of Warfare

The discussion extends beyond traditional battlefield scenarios to encompass the growing importance of non-conventional warfare. This includes escalating competition in space-based assets, cyber warfare, and control of critical infrastructure like rare earths and undersea cables. Russia and China’s employment of hybrid warfare tactics is also acknowledged, challenging the “old school” view of war as characterized by refugee streams, aerial bombardment, and sirens (as seen in Ukraine).

Deterrence, US Role & Alliance Dynamics

A key argument centers on the erosion of consistent US commitment to global security, particularly under the Trump administration. Apps emphasizes the importance of clear “red lines” and credible deterrence. He notes that the UK’s role in preventing a global conflict is supporting, rather than leading. Finland’s military structure – a reserve force of 250,000 with only 50,000 active personnel – is cited as an example of preparedness.

Challenges of Public Perception & Preparedness

A central theme is the difficulty of mobilizing public support for a threat that doesn’t feel immediate. The quote, “people aren't going to take the prospect of the next world war seriously until it's upon us,” encapsulates this challenge. This creates a “catch-22” – how to raise awareness without inducing panic. Apps points to the British public’s relative lack of concern despite Russia’s actions in Ukraine, feeling “immune” to the threat. He also highlights the importance of recognizing “folk memories” of past conflicts, citing examples like mass evacuations at railway stations (Ukraine) and civilian responses like sandbagging.

Financial & Strategic Disconnects

The conversation reveals a disconnect between governmental financial planning and the realities of wartime necessities. Defense officials struggle to secure funding for urgent needs, despite the UK having spent approximately £500 billion on defense in the last decade with limited capability gains.

Conclusion

The discussion paints a sobering picture of a world facing a significantly elevated risk of global conflict. While acknowledging the dangers, Apps remains cautiously optimistic that a world war can be averted through proactive diplomacy, strengthened alliances, and a renewed commitment to deterrence. However, a critical challenge lies in overcoming public complacency and preparing for a conflict that feels abstract, requiring a shift in perception and a more realistic assessment of the threats facing the international community. The reference to the film Reach for the Sky (1956) serves as a reminder of societal mobilization and overcoming adversity, even amidst the complexities of wartime.