VN-Index Vượt 1.600: Cách Chọn Cổ Phiếu Tăng Mạnh Nhất

Key Concepts

• VN-Index (Chứng khoán Việt Nam): The main stock market index in Vietnam.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): A momentum indicator used in technical analysis.
• Vinhomes (VHM): A major real estate developer in Vietnam, often considered a leading stock.
• Vinanex: Likely a typo or mispronunciation, referring to a stock or index.
• BTC (Bitcoin): The leading cryptocurrency.
• Nêm giảm giá (Descending wedge): A bullish chart pattern indicating a potential upward reversal.
• Vàng (Gold): A traditional safe-haven asset.
• TCH Bank: A specific bank stock mentioned.

Vietnamese Stock Market (VN-Index)

The VN-Index showed signs of forming a bottom after a period of decline. While it experienced a dip at the beginning of the week, it was followed by buying pressure, leading to a positive week. The MACD indicator, previously high, is now declining, suggesting a potential exit from an overbought state, which is a prerequisite for a sustained upward trend. The market is expected to consolidate further, forming a base for another week or two before potentially resuming its upward movement. There is no significant immediate risk identified.

Real Estate Sector (Vinhomes)

Vinhomes (VHM), a leading stock in the real estate sector, is also showing signs of forming a bottom and is expected to rebound. It is considered a good opportunity for investors to accumulate shares at current attractive levels, with the potential to test previous highs. The stock is favored due to its strong business performance and attention from institutional and general investors.

Daily Chart Analysis of VN-Index

On the daily chart, the VN-Index still exhibits a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. However, it is also showing signs of forming a base. While further declines at the start of the week are possible, the probability favors buying on dips, followed by sideways consolidation to build a stronger foundation for an upward move in subsequent weeks. The current period is seen as an opportunity to buy for the "third wave" of the rally, which is expected to last from late November through December and into January, potentially spanning over two months. The selling pressure has eased, with some green volume bars appearing, albeit not substantial.

Cryptocurrency Market (BTC)

Weekly Chart Analysis: The BTC price has followed the predicted scenario of falling to the 95,000 mark (plus or minus) after breaking below the support level of 100,000 and the lower boundary of the descending wedge. A significant bearish candle indicated a strong sell-off by large players. The lack of upward momentum in BTC recently is attributed to profit-taking by those who bought during the previous rally, followed by panic selling from retail investors. However, the current price level is considered a high-probability zone for forming a base, similar to previous consolidation periods. BTC is viewed as an asset class with growth potential, attracting institutional investment.

Daily Chart Analysis: The daily chart shows a sharp decline of over 4%, officially breaking the lower boundary of the descending wedge. If this level had held, it would have indicated a potential breakout above the upper trendline, similar to previous patterns. The current situation suggests a potential retest of the upper boundary of the ascending channel for BTC, around the 90,000 mark.

Regulatory Developments in Vietnam: The transcript highlights significant developments in Vietnam regarding digital assets:

• The country now has 21 million Vietnamese people globally investing or trading in cryptocurrencies.
• The government has passed two key laws: the Law on Digital Technologies and Resolution 05, which allows for the pilot implementation of a digital asset trading market in Vietnam. This marks the end of the "grey era" for digital assets.

Gold Market

Gold is identified as one of the best assets for the coming decades. The current global geopolitical instability, characterized by the rise of multipolar world order and the decline of certain powers' influence (e.g., reduced demand for Western weapons, increased demand for Russian arms), creates an environment of uncertainty. This instability, coupled with potential attempts to destabilize opposing blocs through various means, will likely drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset.

Investment Recommendations

Real Estate:

• Top Pick: Vinhomes (VHM) is recommended for its established bottom, potential to test previous highs, strong business fundamentals, and attention from institutional investors.

Banking:

• Top Pick: TCH Bank is recommended for its strong performance and stability. It is described as one of the best private banks in Vietnam and is expected to rebound with the overall market.

General Investment Strategy: The advice is to focus on the current rally towards early next year, take profits, and then reassess. The speaker emphasizes a scientific approach to investing, avoiding panic driven by sensational media reports.

Conclusion

The Vietnamese stock market and key sectors like real estate are showing signs of recovery and forming bases for future growth. Bitcoin has experienced a significant correction but is also expected to find support and potentially rebound. Gold is highlighted as a strong long-term safe-haven asset due to global geopolitical uncertainties. Specific stock recommendations are provided for the real estate and banking sectors. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with an emphasis on strategic investment and risk management.