VN Index Về 1.800: Cơ Hội Mua Tốt Năm 2026?

Market Analysis & Investment Outlook - Weekly Review

Key Concepts:

• MA (Moving Average): A technical indicator that smooths out price data to identify trends. MA10 and MA20 refer to 10-week and 20-week moving averages respectively.
• Support & Resistance: Price levels where the price tends to stop falling (support) or rising (resistance).
• Bottom Fishing (Bắt đáy): The strategy of buying assets when their prices are low, anticipating a rebound.
• WTI (West Texas Intermediate): A benchmark crude oil price.
• VNX (Vietnam Stock Exchange): The stock market of Vietnam.
• Wave Theory (Sóng): A technical analysis method used to identify patterns in price movements. Specifically, the speaker references Elliott Wave Theory.
• Commodities (Hàng hóa): Raw materials or primary agricultural products that can be bought and sold, such as oil, gold, and copper.
• Corrections (Điều chỉnh): A temporary decline in the price of an asset.

1. US Dollar Index (DXY) & Gold

The US Dollar Index experienced a significant decline, breaking through key support levels at the MA10 and 20-week moving averages. However, the speaker notes a recovery towards the end of the week, attributing it to bottom fishing or news surrounding Donald Trump’s selection of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair. This recovery is evidenced by a “doji” candlestick pattern on the weekly chart, suggesting a potential short-term bottom formation. A rebound towards the MA10 and MA20 levels is anticipated, which would likely trigger a correction in gold and other investments. Despite the dollar's influence, gold and stocks have remained resilient, continuing to rise.

2. Oil Prices (WTI)

WTI crude oil has seen two consecutive weeks of increases, driven by geopolitical tensions, specifically the situation in Iran and previously Venezuela. Concerns about Iran potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz have fueled these gains. The speaker believes oil has formed a short-term bottom and is currently in a recovery phase. However, a strong resistance level exists between $65-$66, potentially causing a temporary stall and adjustment before further gains. Breaking through this resistance is crucial for continued upward momentum.

3. US Stock Market

The US stock market continues to demonstrate an upward trend, maintaining its momentum from previous weeks. A slight increase was observed this week, following a test of the M320 weekly moving average and a subsequent bounce. The speaker predicts this upward trend will persist through January, February, and potentially into March.

4. Vietnamese Stock Market (VNX)

The Vietnamese stock market has shown positive signs of stabilization and recovery. After four consecutive weeks of gains followed by two weeks of profit-taking, the market tested the MA10-week moving average and rebounded. This is considered a positive signal, suggesting VNX will likely stabilize and resume its upward trajectory in the coming weeks. The speaker emphasizes the strong performance of the US stock market as a positive indicator for the Vietnamese market. On a daily chart, the market dipped at the beginning of the week but recovered by the end, remaining below the 20-day MA but still showing potential for further gains. The speaker believes the market is currently in the third wave of an uptrend, with potential for further growth.

5. Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin has largely followed the speaker’s previous predictions. After consolidating, it experienced a rebound towards resistance levels, specifically the descending MA20-week moving average, where it faced selling pressure. This resulted in two consecutive weeks of decline, indicating a continued downtrend and testing of lower levels. The speaker suggests this is an opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate BTC, anticipating a future bottom formation. Existing holders are advised to maintain their positions.

6. Individual Stocks (FPT, ST, SCSI, VA)

• FPT: Demonstrating a strong breakout from a consolidation pattern, with a subsequent pullback offering a buying opportunity.
• ST: The speaker previously recommended buying during a dip, which proved successful with a subsequent weekly increase.
• SCSI: Showing strong growth, forming a base, and currently in a recovery phase.
• VA (Vietnam Machinery Installation and Construction Joint Stock Company): The speaker expresses less enthusiasm for VA, noting its volatile price action and lack of a clear trend. He suggests investors consider alternative stocks in sectors like logistics, public investment, and oil & gas.

7. Phu My Fertilizer (DPM) Analysis

Phu My Fertilizer (DPM) is showing a positive technical outlook, mirroring the overall market trend. It experienced a strong increase followed by a correction, then rebounded. The speaker recommends holding existing positions and potentially adding to them for short-term trading opportunities. The company’s financial performance is stable, with consistent profits and exceeding planned targets. Overall, the outlook for DPM is positive.

8. Copper Investment Potential

Regarding copper, the speaker highlights its fundamental importance as a core material in global manufacturing. Unlike gold and silver, which have speculative and monetary value, copper’s price is primarily driven by economic demand. Increased investment in copper is beginning to emerge, and the speaker suggests it’s a commodity to watch.

Notable Quotes:

• “Ở các thị trường chứng khoán cả. Chúng ta xem trên đồ thị ngày cũng thế thôi, tức là đấy nó đầu tuần giảm tiếp và cuối tuần được mua lên.” – (In all stock markets. Looking at the daily chart, it's the same, it fell at the beginning of the week and was bought up at the end.)
• “Bắt đầu từ từ sang cái tuần tới đây này là chứng khoán Việt Nam chúng ta lại hồi tăng lại thôi.” – (Starting slowly next week, the Vietnamese stock market will recover and increase again.)
• “Bạn nào có thì thôi giữ cho qua thôi nhá.” – (If you have it, just hold it for now.)

Logical Connections:

The analysis progresses logically from macro-level indicators (US Dollar, Oil) to broader market trends (US & Vietnamese Stocks) and then to specific stocks and commodities. The speaker consistently links geopolitical events (Iran conflict) to market movements (oil prices) and emphasizes the influence of the US market on the Vietnamese market. The technical analysis (moving averages, support/resistance) is used to support investment recommendations.

Data & Statistics:

• Mention of 50% retracement in DPM’s price correction.
• Reference to Phu My Fertilizer’s 9-month profit exceeding planned targets.
• Observation of four consecutive weeks of gains in the Vietnamese stock market followed by two weeks of profit-taking.

Conclusion:

The speaker presents a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Vietnamese stock market, supported by the continued strength of the US market and positive technical indicators. While acknowledging potential short-term corrections, he believes the overall trend remains upward. He highlights opportunities in specific stocks (FPT, ST, SCSI, DPM) and suggests monitoring commodities like copper. The analysis emphasizes the importance of technical analysis, understanding macroeconomic factors, and adapting investment strategies based on market conditions.