VN-Index ở đỉnh, cơ hội nào cho nhà đầu tư? | VTV24

Key Concepts

• VN-Index: The benchmark stock index of the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE).
• VN30: The index representing the 30 largest and most liquid companies on the HoSE.
• Blue-Chip Stocks: Highly valued, well-established companies with a history of stable earnings.
• Market Capitalization: The total value of a company's outstanding shares. (Vốn hóa)
• Foreign Investors (Khối ngoại): Investors from outside Vietnam investing in the Vietnamese stock market.
• P/E Ratio (P/E): Price-to-Earnings ratio, a valuation metric.
• P/B Ratio (P/B): Price-to-Book ratio, another valuation metric.
• Mid-Cap & Penny Stocks: Companies with smaller market capitalization, generally considered riskier but with higher potential growth.
• Market Upgrade/Nâng hạng: The reclassification of a stock market by international index providers (like FTSE Russell) from frontier to emerging market status.

Market Overview – Morning Session & Overall Trends

In the morning session, the VN-Index increased by over 20 points to 1836.63 points, with many large-cap stocks showing positive performance. However, foreign investors continued their selling streak for the third consecutive session, offloading approximately 482 billion VND worth of shares, indicating a continued reluctance to re-enter the Vietnamese market. Notable movers included SHB (increased 0.93% with high trading volume of over 4.46 million shares) and STB (decreased 5.82%). While some small and mid-cap stocks saw ceiling prices (tăng trần), their impact was limited.

Despite the VN-Index reaching new historic highs, many investors are experiencing negative portfolio returns. This discrepancy arises because the index’s growth has been largely driven by a few large-cap stocks, particularly in the real estate sector and core companies.

From closing at 1269 points on the first trading day of 2025, the VN-Index rose to 1784 by December 31st, a nearly 520-point increase over 25 years. VinGroup contributed significantly to this growth, accounting for 264 points (51%) of the total increase. Banks and securities firms also contributed positively, but the market demonstrates clear differentiation, with many stocks lagging behind.

The Dominance of Large-Cap Stocks & VinGroup’s Impact

The speaker emphasizes a significant imbalance in the market’s growth. While the VN-Index has soared, the breadth of the rally is limited. A small number of large-cap stocks are driving the index upwards, while many others remain stagnant or even decline.

Specifically, VinGroup’s ecosystem has been a dominant force. In 2025, VinGroup contributed over 200 points to the VN-Index’s 500+ point increase. VIC alone accounted for 192 points of this gain. This concentration of influence means that the market is heavily reliant on the performance of a few key companies.

Quote: “Chỉ số chúng ta tăng một cái mức tăng năm nay là một mức tăng rất mạnh, rất kỷ lục, một cái đà tăng từ lên đến tận 500 điểm nhưng mà hầu như chỉ tác động bởi một nhóm vài cái cái nhóm hệ sinh thái hay là một vài dòng chính.” (The index’s increase this year is a very strong, record-breaking increase, a rally of up to 500 points, but it’s almost entirely driven by a few groups, a few ecosystems or a few main sectors.) – Nguyen Minh Hoang, Director of Analysis, Nhat Viet Securities

The combined market capitalization of VinGroup’s four key companies (VIC, VRE, VPL, Vinhome) represents over 20% of the total market capitalization. This concentration poses a risk, as a simultaneous decline in these stocks could significantly impact the entire market.

Risks & Opportunities in the Short & Medium Term

The concentration of market gains creates risks. The speaker anticipates that investors will need to adapt to increased volatility, as the market becomes more sensitive to the performance of a few large stocks. The example of Vinhome pulling the index up by 8.5 points in a single session illustrates this point.

Despite these risks, opportunities remain. The speaker believes that mid-cap and penny stocks, which have largely been overlooked in 2025, could offer potential for growth in the future. However, this will depend on the broader economic context and the implementation of supportive policies.

Quote: “Chúng ta sẽ phải quen với một việc tôi nghĩ là không chỉ quen trong năm nay đâu mà sẽ quen trong 1 hai năm tới, vài năm tới.” (We will have to get used to something that I think won’t just be for this year, but for the next one or two years, or even several years.) – Nguyen Minh Hoang, Director of Analysis, Nhat Viet Securities

Expert Insights – Nguyen Minh Hoang (Nhat Viet Securities)

Nguyen Minh Hoang attributes the market’s growth in 2025 to several factors, including:

• Government Policies Supporting the Private Sector: The government’s policies aimed at fostering the private sector have boosted investor confidence.
• VinGroup & GEC Ecosystems: The strong performance of VinGroup and GEC’s ecosystems has significantly impacted the VN-Index.
• Traditional Sectors: Banks, real estate, and securities firms also contributed to the rally.

He highlights the importance of understanding the underlying drivers of the market and focusing on fundamental analysis. He anticipates that the trend of large-cap stocks leading the market will continue in the first half of 2026.

Market Upgrade & Foreign Investment

Vietnam’s stock market was upgraded from frontier to emerging market status in September 2025. This upgrade is expected to attract significant foreign investment, potentially reaching $25 billion by 2030, according to World Bank estimates.

Despite the VN-Index reaching record highs, valuation metrics like P/E and P/B ratios remain relatively low compared to other regional markets, suggesting further upside potential for investors who can identify undervalued companies. The average P/E ratio of the VN-Index is around 14, lower than its historical average.

Investment Strategy for 2026

The speaker and Nguyen Minh Hoang recommend a medium-term investment horizon (6-12 months) for 2026. They suggest focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, growth potential, and attractive valuations.

Key sectors to watch include:

• Banking: A traditional pillar of the Vietnamese economy.
• State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs): Benefiting from government support and reforms.
• Retail: Expected to benefit from new laws and increasing domestic consumption. (MWG, Masan Consumer, PNG are mentioned as potential options)

Investors should prioritize understanding the business models and growth prospects of individual companies rather than simply chasing momentum. The return of foreign capital, upgrades to the trading system, and reasonable valuations create a favorable environment for selective investment.

Quote: “Cơ hội vẫn còn cho mọi cổ phiếu chứ không phải là chúng ta chỉ nên tập trung vào một cổ phiếu riêng lẻ.” (Opportunities still exist for all stocks, not just focusing on a single stock.)

Conclusion

The Vietnamese stock market is undergoing a transformation. While the VN-Index has reached new heights, the gains have been concentrated in a few large-cap stocks. The market upgrade to emerging market status is expected to attract foreign investment, but investors will need to be more selective and focus on fundamental analysis to identify opportunities. 2026 is likely to be a year of differentiation and strategic positioning, rewarding investors who understand the evolving dynamics of the Vietnamese market. The emphasis is shifting from simply chasing index gains to identifying companies with strong growth potential and attractive valuations.