VN Index Ngược Bão: 2026 Chạy Sóng Mạnh?

Key Concepts

• US Dollar Index (DXY): Currently the main driver of global markets, showing an upward trend and approaching the 100 mark.
• Gold and Crypto Markets: Experiencing significant declines due to the strengthening US dollar.
• US Stock Market: Showing signs of topping out, with three consecutive weeks of decline.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): A technical indicator used to identify potential trend changes.
• MA20 (20-day Moving Average): A common technical indicator representing the average price over the last 20 periods.
• Vietnamese Stock Market (VN-Index): Has shown resilience, potentially forming a bottom and entering a sideways trend.
• Bitcoin (BTC): Has broken its long-term uptrend channel, indicating a bearish outlook.
• "Sell the News" Phenomenon: Investors selling assets after positive news is released, leading to price drops.
• Bubble Fears: Widespread concerns about asset bubbles across various markets.
• Whale Selling: Large institutional investors (ETFs, major banks) selling significant amounts of assets.
• Elliott Wave Theory: A technical analysis tool used to identify market trends and predict future movements.

Market Analysis and Outlook

US Dollar Index (DXY)

The US Dollar Index has become the central focus of global markets. After a period of decline and consolidation, it has begun to rise, with a strong upward trend observed in the past week. The DXY is approaching the significant psychological and technical resistance level of 100. This strengthening dollar is exerting downward pressure on other asset classes, including gold, cryptocurrencies, and US equities. The current trend suggests further upward movement for the dollar, especially if it breaks above 100.

Oil Prices

Oil prices remain weak and are described as "laggard" and "probing the bottom." There is no significant positive development or interest in this market currently.

US Stock Market

The US stock market, particularly the S&P 500, is showing clear signs of a potential top. In previous weeks, indicators like the "evening star" candlestick pattern and bearish engulfing patterns suggested a reversal. This has been confirmed by three consecutive weeks of decline. The MACD indicator on the weekly chart, resembling a "goose's neck" or a "V" shape, also points to a potential correction. While the index has not yet broken below the MA20 on the weekly chart, a further decline and test of this level, or even a break below it, is possible in the coming weeks. The current view is to wait for a bottom to form in the next one to two weeks before considering buying opportunities. On the daily chart, the market is consolidating around the MA20, but the recent "sell the news" event following Nvidia's positive earnings report, resulting in a strong bearish Marubozu candle, indicates increasing selling pressure. This suggests further downside potential before a potential rebound to test previous highs.

Vietnamese Stock Market (VN-Index)

The Vietnamese stock market has performed in line with previous expectations, moving towards the MA20 on the weekly chart and consolidating before a potential rebound. It avoided the worst-case scenario of retesting the 2022 highs and has shown signs of forming a bottom, with a positive week of gains. The current outlook is for a period of sideways trading, with potential for some volatility (up and down movements). It is noted that the Vietnamese market has corrected and potentially bottomed out before the US market, which is still expected to decline further.

Specific Stock Recommendations (End of Year Focus)

• Vinhome: Showing a slight upward trend and has broken above the upper trendline of a descending wedge pattern, indicating a potential start of an uptrend.
• Techcombank: Also appears to be following a similar positive pattern, with good performance.

The VN-Index itself is observed to be forming a descending wedge on the daily chart, and its recent breakout above the upper trendline suggests a potential entry into an uptrend. The current phase is viewed as "wave 3" of a larger upward move, which could extend into early next year. Caution is advised as this phase progresses.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Technical Breakdown:

• Long-Term Uptrend Channel: BTC has broken below its long-term uptrend channel, which has been in place since 2023. This is a significant bearish signal.
• MACD: The MACD on the weekly chart shows a widening bearish divergence, further confirming the negative sentiment.
• Short-Term Descending Wedge: On the daily chart, BTC has broken below the lower boundary of a descending wedge pattern, which is typically a bearish continuation pattern.
• Support Levels: Previous support levels, including the 95,000 mark, have been breached. The break below the long-term uptrend channel is considered a major failure of support.

Outlook:

The analysis strongly suggests that BTC has broken its uptrend. The current situation is considered highly negative, with over 95% probability of the uptrend being broken. The immediate outlook is for a potential short-term bounce back to the MA10 and MA20 daily moving averages, followed by further declines to find a new bottom. The current price levels are seen as an opportunity for short-term trading (scalping) rather than long-term investment.

Reasons for the Decline:

1. Lack of Support: There is no significant positive news or catalyst to support the crypto market. Political figures who may have previously supported crypto are now focused on global peace and other pressing issues.
2. Bubble Fears: Widespread concerns about asset bubbles across various markets, including stocks and other asset classes, are causing panic selling among large investors.
3. Whale Selling: Large institutional players, including ETFs and major banks, are actively selling, contributing to the sharp price declines.

Market Impact:

The crypto market has lost approximately $1.2 trillion in market capitalization, and Bitcoin has fallen around 20% from its recent highs. The current strategy is to "swim with the current" and adapt to the downward trend.

Monthly Chart Analysis:

The monthly chart of BTC, analyzed from 2020 onwards, shows a pattern of a strong upward move followed by a double top and a subsequent decline after breaking a trendline. This historical pattern suggests a high probability of a similar downward trend continuing. The MACD on the monthly chart also indicates a bearish crossover, confirming the end of the bullish trend and the onset of a significant correction. The depth and duration of this correction will be further analyzed in the coming weeks.

Conclusion

The global markets are currently dominated by a strengthening US dollar, which is putting pressure on risk assets like gold, crypto, and US stocks. The US stock market is showing signs of a top, while Bitcoin has broken its long-term uptrend. The Vietnamese stock market has demonstrated more resilience and may have already found a bottom. Investors are advised to be cautious, adapt to current market trends, and look for potential buying opportunities after significant corrections and the formation of new bottoms. The current environment is characterized by fear of bubbles and significant selling pressure from large institutional investors.