Vladimir Putin and US envoy Steve Witkoff set for key Ukraine talks in Moscow | BBC News

Key Concepts

• Amended Peace Plan: A revised proposal to end the war in Ukraine, presented by Steve Wickoff to President Putin.
• Sovereignty and Security Guarantees: President Zelenskyy's core priorities in peace talks, emphasizing Ukraine's right to self-determination and robust defense mechanisms.
• Sanctions, Accountability, Legal Status of Territories, Russian Assets, Reconstruction Obligation: Key principled positions of Ukraine regarding reparations and consequences for Russia's aggression.
• Prosk (or Pavlosk): A frontline town in eastern Ukraine, recently claimed to be captured by Russian forces, significant as a transport hub.
• Donbass Region: The eastern Ukrainian region, largely occupied by Russia, a critical point of contention in peace negotiations.
• "So-called Peace Plan": A term used to describe the American-backed peace proposal, with suggestions of Russian input and potential concessions from Ukraine.
• Maximalist Demands: Extreme or uncompromising demands, as attributed to Russia in the context of peace negotiations.
• Memorandum: A formal record of an agreement or understanding, in this case, a Russian memorandum presented in June.
• Territorial Concessions: The act of ceding land or territory, a major point of negotiation for Ukraine.

Meeting Between Steve Wickoff and President Putin

• Purpose: Steve Wickoff, President Trump's special envoy, was scheduled to meet President Putin in Moscow to present an amended plan to end the war in Ukraine.
• Context: The meeting occurred hours after Russia claimed to have captured the frontline town of Prosk in eastern Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Stance: President Zelenskyy reiterated that Russia should not be rewarded for its invasion. His priorities for peace talks include maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty and securing strong security guarantees. He stated, "War should not become a profitable business so that others would not want to repeat such actions."
• Zelenskyy's Diplomatic Efforts: Zelenskyy was in Paris meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and rallying support from European allies, including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and about a dozen other European leaders via phone. He was also on a state visit to Ireland, where the Irish government was expected to approve an additional 110 million pounds (125 million euros) in support for Ukraine.

Situation on the Ground and Strategic Significance

• Capture of Prosk: Russia claimed its forces had captured Prosk. While the Ukrainian military stated their troops were holding the northern part of the city, its fall, if confirmed, would complicate Ukrainian efforts to resupply front lines.
• Significance of Prosk: James Waterhouse, correspondent in Kyiv, noted that while Prosk has been heavily destroyed and its capture might not dramatically alter front-line dynamics, the potential concessions Ukraine might have to make in an unfavorable peace deal are more significant. This includes the remaining part of the eastern Donbass region.
• Timing of Russian Claims: The timing of Russia's claims about capturing towns was seen as potentially curated, coinciding with the US delegation's arrival in the Kremlin. This was interpreted as a signal that Moscow might not be ready to pause its invasion.
• Fight Over Ruins: Regarding Prosk, Vitali Shvchenko, Russia editor for BBC Monitoring, stated that its practical significance as a strategic transport hub was gone, and it was essentially a "fight over ruins."

Peace Process and Negotiation Dynamics

• Amended Peace Plan Details: The peace plan being presented is described as having taken many forms, initially conceived by the US with significant Russian input. Ukraine has reportedly gained some concessions through discussions with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
• Difficult Discussions: Discussions between Ukrainian and American sides have been acknowledged as "extremely difficult."
• Kremlin's Reaction: A key uncertainty is how the Kremlin will react. Historically, Russia has agreed to a basis for agreement but has also raised "core issues" or "core reasons behind the war" that need addressing.
• Russia's Strategy: Ukraine suspects Russia is "killing time" and content with its gains, as evidenced by its messaging. President Putin has stated Russia will stop fighting only after Ukraine withdraws from its current positions, and he sees no point in signing deals with Zelenskyy.
• US Role and Potential Pressure: The transcript raises the question of what the US would do if Russia again delays or rejects proposals. It speculates whether the US would impose further sanctions on Russia or pressure Ukraine to accept a deal, asking, "Will it turn back to Ukraine and say look we've gone back and forth enough's enough. Sign here or else we just don't know."
• Wickoff's Visits: This is Steve Wickoff's sixth visit to the Kremlin. While meetings might involve handshakes, the specifics of agreements are often not immediately revealed.
• Potential Concessions: A key focus of talks between Ukraine and America is territorial concessions. Russia's plan, as presented by the Americans, reportedly demands Ukraine vacate the remaining 20% of the eastern Donbass region, which is an "absolute non-starter" for Ukraine. The question remains whether Ukraine can continue fighting for this territory without US support.
• Allegations Against Wickoff: Vitali Shvchenko mentioned "extraordinary leaks in the media" suggesting Wickoff agreed to present Russian-compiled demands as America's peace plan, engaged in business negotiations with Russia, and advised Russia on dealing with Donald Trump. While unconfirmed, the "so-called 20-point peace plan" presented by the Americans reportedly matches a Russian memorandum from June, including points like troop withdrawal and a cap on the Ukrainian army size.
• Likelihood of Progress: Shvchenko expressed doubt about progress happening before Christmas, noting that the perception of Steve Wickoff has changed.

Conclusion and Key Takeaways

The situation surrounding the potential peace talks is complex and fraught with uncertainty. While a US-led peace initiative is underway, with an amended plan being presented to President Putin, significant hurdles remain. Ukraine's unwavering stance on sovereignty and security, coupled with its principled positions on sanctions and accountability, contrasts with Russia's maximalist demands and apparent satisfaction with its territorial gains. The capture of Prosk, while strategically questionable, serves as a backdrop to these high-stakes negotiations. The role of the United States as a mediator, and the potential for it to exert pressure on either side, remains a critical unknown. The transcript highlights the deep divisions and the challenging nature of achieving a lasting peace, with Ukraine facing the difficult prospect of territorial concessions.