Vietnam Had Enough of China - Get Out NOW!

Key Concepts

South China Sea dispute, China's expansionism, Vietnam's resistance, Gulf of Tonkin, ENCLOS, US-Vietnam relations, Quad Plus, Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, diversification of partnerships (Japan, Indonesia, Philippines, India), military modernization, land reclamation, anti-dumping measures, steel industry, gray zone operations, risk aversion.

China's Provocations and Vietnam's Response

The video focuses on China's continued aggressive actions in the South China Sea and Vietnam's increasingly assertive response. China's actions include:

• Historical Claims: Seizing the Paracel Islands in 1974 and ongoing disputes over the Spratly Islands.
• Island Building: Dredging reefs and constructing military installations on disputed islands.
• Economic Coercion: Flexing economic muscle against other nations.
• Gulf of Tonkin Claims: Reviving old claims to the Gulf of Tonkin, initially based on the "11-dash line" map, despite a 2000 maritime demarcation agreement. Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wen bin asserted China's "legitimate and lawful right" to determine territorial sea baselines.
• Steel Dumping: Flooding the Southeast Asian market with artificially cheap steel, threatening Vietnam's steel industry and potentially its national defense capabilities.

Vietnam's response is multifaceted:

• Diplomatic Protests: Strong statements from the Foreign Ministry emphasizing adherence to UNCLOS and protection of other countries' rights.
• Strengthening International Partnerships:
  • United States: Elevated bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2023 during President Biden's visit. Increased economic ties, with bilateral trade quadrupling from $30 billion in 2013 to $139 billion in 2023. Seeking to host more factories for American companies to reduce China's leverage.
  • Japan: Upgraded bilateral relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in November 2023.
  • Indonesia: Strengthened defense cooperation in November 2023, focusing on naval, coast guard, defense industry, training, and strategic research coordination.
  • Philippines: Increased military cooperation, particularly in maritime matters, in August 2024, aiming to resolve disputes peacefully and team up against China.
  • India: Bilateral military exercises (VINBAX 2024) to enhance joint military capabilities for UN peacekeeping operations. Vietnam is a key part of India's "necklace of diamonds" strategy. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh called for a $20 billion bilateral trade target. Increased cooperation in aviation, logistics, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy.
• Military Modernization: Strengthening its own defenses without over-reliance on foreign powers.
• Land Reclamation: Expanding its presence in the Spratly Islands. Between November 2023 and June 2024, Vietnam built 692 acres of land across 10 features, significantly exceeding previous years. Total land created is 2,360 acres, about half of China's 4,650 acres. Example: Canada Bark Reef is now 4,318 meters long, potentially capable of hosting a military aircraft runway.
• Economic Measures: Imposing anti-dumping taxes on cold-rolled steel from China in December 2023 and launching an anti-dumping investigation into steel products from China and South Korea in June 2024.

The Gulf of Tonkin and Maritime Demarcation

China's revival of claims in the Gulf of Tonkin is a major point of contention. While a 2000 agreement seemingly settled the maritime demarcation line, Vietnam is wary of China's potential future expansion of these claims. Vietnam believes that coastal countries need to abide by the enclos when establishing the territorial Baseline used to calculate the width of territorial Waters to ensure that it does not affect the lawful rights and interests of other countries including the freedom of navigation and the freedom of Passage through Straits used for international Maritime activities in accordance with enclos

Vietnam's Strategic Advantages

The video argues that Vietnam is a more challenging adversary for China than some other nations in the region, like the Philippines. Key factors include:

• History of Resistance: Vietnam has a long history of standing up to China, including military conflicts in 1974, 1979 (border war), and 1988.
• Military Strength: Vietnam has the world's third-highest amount of total military personnel (5.85 million) and ranks ninth in active personnel (600,000).
• Willingness to Inflict Costs: Vietnam has demonstrated a willingness to engage in confrontations, even at a risk of escalation.
• Experience of Chinese Military Leaders: Two of China's top military officers, Generals Zhang Youxia and Li Zuocheng, are veterans of the 1979 border war and are aware of the capabilities of Vietnamese troops.

The Haiyang Shiyou 981 Incident (2014)

This incident serves as a case study of Vietnam's assertive response to Chinese aggression:

• Chinese Action: China deployed the Haiyang Shiyou 981 oil rig to disputed waters near the Paracel Islands in May 2014, attempting exploratory drilling on blocks claimed by Vietnam.
• Vietnamese Response: Vietnam immediately sent Coast Guard and Fisheries resources surveillance ships to intercept the rig.
• Escalation: Collisions between Chinese and Vietnamese ships occurred. China deployed up to 130 ships, while Vietnam deployed 29.
• Domestic Unrest: Anti-China protests and riots erupted in Vietnam, targeting foreign-owned factories.
• Chinese Retreat: China unexpectedly withdrew the oil rig in July 2014, citing the start of a second round of exploration.

This incident is presented as a significant setback for China and a demonstration of Vietnam's resolve.

China's "Charm Offensive" and Economic Tactics

Despite its aggressive actions, China has also attempted to improve relations with Vietnam:

• December 2023 Visit: Xi Jinping's state visit to Hanoi resulted in a 16-page joint declaration and 36 cooperation documents, including infrastructure projects (bridge across the Red River, interoperable railways), communications agreements, green technology cooperation, and a new economic zone.
• Security Statements: Agreements on a hotline between the Vietnamese agriculture Ministry and the Chinese Coast Guard, joint rescue operations, security and intelligence cooperation, and joint naval patrols in the Gulf of Tonkin.
• Increased Imports: Increased imports of durians from Vietnam.

However, the video suggests that these efforts may be undermined by China's economic tactics, particularly steel dumping.

Conclusion

The video concludes that Vietnam is a unique and resilient player in the South China Sea dispute. Its history of resistance, military strength, strategic partnerships, and willingness to confront China make it a more challenging adversary than many others. While China has attempted both aggressive and conciliatory approaches, Vietnam remains determined to protect its interests and maintain its independence. The key takeaway is that China's risk aversion, particularly when faced with a determined and capable opponent, can be a significant factor in shaping its behavior in the region.