Vĩ Mô 2026: Nên Đầu Tư Tài Sản Nào?

Macroeconomic Overview & The Dollar's Position - A Detailed Summary

Key Concepts:

• CPI (Consumer Price Index): A measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of consumer goods and services.
• Federal Reserve (Fed): The central banking system of the United States.
• BRICS: An acronym for an association of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
• SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication): A global messaging network that financial institutions use to securely transmit information and instructions through a standardized system.
• De-dollarization: The process of reducing the reliance on the US dollar in international trade and finance.
• Liquidity: The ease with which an asset can be converted into cash without affecting its market price.
• Geopolitical Tension: Conflicts and rivalries between countries, often involving power struggles and strategic interests.

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I. Macroeconomic Factors Supporting Gold

The livestream focused heavily on macroeconomic factors influencing the gold market, identifying four key supporting elements:

1. US Inflation Cooling (CPI): The December CPI data showed figures largely in line with forecasts. However, core CPI increased 2.6% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 2.7%, potentially easing pressure on the Fed to maintain high interest rates. Despite this, the figure remains above the Fed’s 2% target, fluctuating between 2.6% and 2.8%, leading to some profit-taking towards the end of the week.
2. Dollar Weakness: A weakening US dollar is generally positive for gold, as gold is priced in dollars.
3. Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing global conflicts, particularly the potential escalation of the conflict in Iran, contribute to risk aversion and drive investment towards safe-haven assets like gold. The speaker highlighted the constant threat of new conflicts erupting weekly.
4. Interest Rate Expectations (2026): Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 are largely positive for gold, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Current projections indicate a 5% probability of rate cuts by January 28th, with 95% expecting rates to remain unchanged.

II. CPI Data & Market Reaction

The US CPI data for December was largely as expected, with most components aligning with forecasts. The key takeaway was the 2.6% year-over-year increase in core CPI, below the projected 2.7%. This fueled optimism about potential Fed rate cuts, initially boosting the market. However, the fact that 2.6% remains significantly above the Fed’s 2% target prompted some investors to take profits, especially amidst concerns about the situation in Iran. This resulted in a price adjustment for gold at the end of the week.

III. Political Investigations & Market Volatility

The market experienced a significant surge on Monday, with gold increasing by over $100, attributed to the announcement of a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The speaker characterized this as a political maneuver by the current administration, referencing past attacks on Powell and a stated intention to dismantle the “establishment” surrounding Washington D.C. The investigation centers around the construction of a $2.5 billion headquarters. This news triggered panic among investors, driving them towards gold as a safe haven. However, the speaker emphasized that these events are largely a “game” and that the situation will likely return to normal.

IV. The Dollar's Current Position & Future Challenges

The discussion then shifted to a detailed analysis of the US dollar’s current position in the global financial system.

1. Global Forex Reserves: As of January 2026, total global foreign exchange reserves are estimated at $13 trillion, with the US dollar accounting for 56-58% of these reserves. This represents a decline from a peak of 70% in 2000, indicating a clear trend of de-dollarization.
2. BRICS Diversification: BRICS nations, led by China, Russia, and India, are actively diversifying away from the dollar towards gold. Russia began this process in 2005, selling US Treasury bonds and increasing its gold reserves in anticipation of escalating geopolitical tensions with the West.
3. Dollar Usage in Trade & Payments: The dollar’s share in payments through the SWIFT system currently ranges from 47-50%, with some instances falling as low as 40%. In trade finance (LCs), the dollar accounts for approximately 80%, and in commodity pricing, it remains dominant at 90%, even when transactions occur in other currencies within the BRICS bloc. This is because commodity prices are often denominated in dollars, even when settled in other currencies.
4. Alternative Currencies: The Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Chinese Renminbi are gradually increasing their share in global finance, but the pace is slow.

Why the Dollar Remains Dominant (For Now):

The speaker identified three key reasons why the dollar is likely to remain the world’s dominant currency for the foreseeable future:

1. Liquidity: The US financial markets are the most liquid and well-developed globally, offering unparalleled convenience and efficiency.
2. Military & Geopolitical Strength: The US possesses significant military and geopolitical power, allowing it to exert influence and enforce its interests. The example of sanctions against Venezuela was cited as evidence of this.
3. Legal System: The US legal system, with its emphasis on property rights and transparency, is generally considered more reliable than alternatives.

However, the speaker also noted that this third advantage is being undermined by actions like the freezing of Russian assets, which violate international law and erode trust in the US financial system. This self-inflicted damage contributes to the ongoing de-dollarization trend.

Notable Quote:

“…tất cả như này chúng ta biết ấy là gì có thể đây là gì? Người ta bảo thôi cho ông nói thoải mái nhưng cuối cùng lại cũng đâu vào đấy hết.” ("…all of this, as we know, is likely just letting him talk freely, but ultimately everything will end up back where it started.") – Regarding the political investigations and their likely limited impact.

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Conclusion:

The livestream presented a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic landscape and its impact on the gold market and the US dollar. While gold is currently supported by several factors, including cooling inflation, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of rate cuts, the long-term outlook for the dollar remains complex. Despite its current dominance, the dollar faces increasing challenges from de-dollarization efforts, particularly by BRICS nations, and self-inflicted wounds to its credibility through actions like asset seizures. The speaker emphasized the importance of continuous monitoring of these trends to navigate the evolving global financial environment. The situation is a “game” with many moving parts, and understanding these dynamics is crucial for informed investment decisions.