‘Very good chance’ of court ruling going against Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina: Analyst

Key Concepts

• International Crimes Tribunal: A judicial body established to prosecute individuals accused of grave international crimes.
• Crimes Against Humanity: Widespread or systematic attacks against a civilian population.
• Awami League: A major political party in Bangladesh.
• Interim Government: A temporary government formed to oversee elections or a period of transition.
• Extradition Treaty: An agreement between countries to surrender individuals accused or convicted of crimes.
• Political Polarization: The divergence of political attitudes to ideological extremes.

Verdict and Ramifications in Bangladesh

This summary details the potential verdict of a tribunal against former depos Hassina, who is accused of crimes against humanity during anti-government protests in Bangladesh that resulted in over 1,400 deaths. Hassina, currently in exile in New Delhi, denies the charges, claiming they are politically motivated. The analysis, provided by South Asia analyst Michael Kougelman, explores the likely outcomes of the verdict and its impact on the political landscape and public order in Bangladesh.

Potential Verdict and Immediate Impact

• Likely Outcome: There is a high probability that the ruling will be against Hassina. Speculation suggests she could be sentenced to death.
• Practical Implications: Due to her exile in India, a death sentence would not have a direct immediate impact on her physical freedom.
• Political Significance: The case is highly significant for Bangladeshi politics, particularly as various political factions vie for influence ahead of upcoming elections. A unifying factor among these factions is their demand for justice for the victims of the violent crackdown.
• Public Order Concerns: The situation is described as "heated," with concerns about potential unrest on the streets following the verdict.

Credibility of the Trial Process

• Hassina's Claims: Hassina and her supporters allege the trial is a "sham."
• Analyst's Perspective: Michael Kougelman states he has no reason to doubt the credibility of the International Crimes Tribunal process. He notes that the proceedings have been lengthy, spanning many months, indicating a deliberate and not rushed approach to justice.
• Conclusion on Credibility: Kougelman views the process as credible, suggesting the verdict should be considered legitimate, even though it is acknowledged that many, including Hassina and her supporters, will likely disagree with it.

Ban on the Awami League and Political Re-entry

• Interim Government's Stance: The interim government has no plans to lift the ban on the Awami League.
• Reason for Ban: The interim government's position is that the Awami League, including Hassina, has refused to apologize for or even acknowledge the "brutalities" committed during the crackdown on peaceful protesters.
• Eligibility for Elections: The interim government believes it is inappropriate for the party to contest elections given its "rejectionist" stance.
• Chances of Re-entry: Kougelman assesses the chances of the Awami League returning to politics as "very small."

Hassina's Influence and Potential for Violence

• "Lightning Rod" Figure: Hassina is described as a "lightning rod" in Bangladeshi politics.
• Incitement Risk: Even from exile in India, Hassina's online speeches have the potential to trigger violent responses, as evidenced by an incident earlier in the year.
• Delicate Situation: The overall political environment is characterized as "very delicate."

Impact of the Party Ban on Polarization

• Argument Against Ban: Kougelman argues that banning the Awami League from political activities, including campaigning, could exacerbate the existing deep political polarization in Bangladesh.
• Anticipated Disruption: Conversely, the ban is seen as an indication that the party or its supporters will attempt to disrupt the upcoming election campaign, knowing they cannot participate directly.
• Recent Incidents: In the days leading up to the verdict, there have been numerous small-scale bombings and arson attacks in Dhaka, attributed to supporters of Hassina expressing frustration and anger.

Verdict's Role in Democratic Transition

• National Reconciliation: The verdict is expected to be helpful for national reconciliation among much of the political class and the country, as many desired this legal process.
• Potential for Violence: However, if the verdict goes against Hassina, her supporters, who constitute a significant base for the Awami League, are likely to react with anger.
• Intensified Polarization: The verdict is predicted to intensify polarization and tensions in the political environment, potentially increasing the chances of violence in the coming days and weeks, especially as the February elections approach.

Awami League's Enduring Influence

• Potent Force: The Awami League is still considered a "potent force" with the ability to disrupt life in the country and potentially block elections.
• Historical Significance: It is one of the oldest political parties in Bangladesh with a strong base.
• Fear of Disruption: Despite leaders being in exile or hiding, loyal party members are feared to attempt to undermine the election by staging attacks on campaigning activities.
• Indicator of Future Peace: The level of violence in the immediate days following the verdict will serve as a crucial indicator of the potential for more peaceful days leading up to the election.

India's Position and Bilateral Relations

• India's Refusal to Extradite: India has made it clear it will not hand over Hassina to Bangladesh, despite an extradition treaty and Bangladesh's request.
• Alliance and Friendship: Hassina is considered a close friend of India, and India does not extradite its key allies.
• Damage to Relations: India's refusal has damaged India-Bangladesh relations.
• Amplified Tensions: The trial and verdict amplify the existing tensions between the two countries, which have been significant since Hassina left Bangladesh.
• Future of Relations: Kougelman suspects the elected government in Bangladesh will aim to reduce tensions with India, but Hassina's continued presence in India will limit the extent to which these tensions can be eased.

Societal Healing in a Divided Nation

• Dependence on Awami League's Response: The process of healing for a divided society largely depends on how the Awami League's backers respond to the verdict and what transpires during the election campaign.
• Significance of Upcoming Election: The February election is highly anticipated as potentially the first in nearly two decades to take place under "genuinely democratic conditions."
• Voter Turnout: Despite the risk of violence, voters are expected to turn out in large numbers, hoping their votes will be meaningful.
• Increased Risk of Violence: This high stake and potential for disruption could increase the chances of violence, not only from Awami League "spoilers" but also from other actors.
• Regional Context: While some level of violence is typical during election campaigns in the region, there is a fear that it could be more pronounced in this instance.
• Path to Healing: Reduced violence will facilitate the country's healing process and its move towards the election.
• Public Desire for Election: A significant majority of the public desires the election to take place, having wanted it for some time.