Venezuela: What's next for Maduro and for Latin America? • FRANCE 24 English

Venezuela: Analysis of Recent Events & Geopolitical Implications

Key Concepts:

• Fog of War: Uncertainty and confusion characteristic of the initial stages of a military operation.
• Geostrategic Fog: Uncertainty surrounding the broader geopolitical implications of an event.
• Spheres of Influence: A concept where major powers exert control or dominance over specific regions.
• Transactional Presidency: A style of leadership focused on deal-making and immediate gains rather than long-term strategy.
• Hegemonic Behavior: Actions by a dominant nation that assert its power and influence over others.
• National Security Strategy: A document outlining a country’s goals and approaches to national security.

I. Initial Situation & Uncertainty

The discussion begins by acknowledging the immediate uncertainty following a military operation in Venezuela. Professor Steven Echovich emphasizes the “usual fog of war,” noting that initial plans often deviate from reality. Beyond the immediate military aspects, a significant “geostrategic fog” exists, raising questions about the operation’s impact on regional and global relations. Specifically, the implications for US relations with Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, Moscow, and China are highlighted as open questions. The situation is further complicated by potential effects on American domestic politics and the upcoming midterm elections. Echovich repeatedly stresses the prevalence of “unknowns” and the need for careful observation in the coming days, weeks, and months.

II. Trump Administration & Venezuelan Authorities

The conversation addresses the seemingly paradoxical approach of the Trump administration towards Venezuela. While one might expect support for the opposition, Trump appeared initially to favor engagement with Maduro’s Vice President, despite her defiance towards the US. Echovich suggests Trump’s primary goal isn’t necessarily immediate democratic transition, but rather a controlled shift away from Maduro’s government. He posits that Trump may be reluctant to immediately empower Maria Karina Machado, the Nobel Prize laureate, potentially due to personal jealousy over her award. Trump reportedly stated the US would be “running Venezuela,” but the initial move appears to be a cautious approach, avoiding a swift overthrow. The question posed is whether the transition will result in a fundamentally different leadership or merely a change in name.

III. Risk of Internal Conflict & Regional Stability

The possibility of Venezuela descending into internal conflict or instability is acknowledged as a significant risk. Echovich reiterates the unpredictability of geopolitical events, stating that plans rarely unfold as intended. The discussion shifts to how the US and other interested parties will adapt to the evolving situation. The analysis highlights the importance of understanding whether the US approach is based on long-term strategic vision or impulsive decision-making, acknowledging the influence of figures like Marco Rubio who may advocate for a more considered approach.

IV. International Reactions – A Divided World

A report details the diverse international reactions to the US operation. Reactions were largely split along ideological lines:

• Support: Trump’s allies in Argentina and Ecuador expressed support, framing the operation as a step towards freedom. Argentine President Javier Mille explicitly welcomed the operation.
• Condemnation: Left-wing governments in Colombia, Mexico, and Cuba strongly condemned the intervention, labeling it as “state terrorism” and a violation of international law. Cuba specifically expressed fear of similar US intervention in their own country. Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay also voiced concerns about regional stability.
• Neutral/Cautious: Mexico affirmed its security ties with the US while condemning the attack. Spain offered to mediate for a peaceful solution and stated it would not recognize any intervention violating international law.
• Strong Opposition from Allies of Venezuela: Russia urged the release of Maduro and his wife. China condemned the US’s “hegemonic behavior.” Iran denounced the violation of Venezuela’s sovereignty.
• European Caution: The EU called for restraint and respect for international law. French President Emmanuel Macron advocated for a peaceful transfer of power to Edmundo Gonzalez Uruia, the presumed winner of the 2024 presidential election.

V. Geopolitical Implications & US Relations with Major Powers

Echovich analyzes the potential impact on US relations with key global players:

• Iran: Described as currently “very weak” and unable to significantly respond.
• Russia: Putin may be “embarrassed” by the swift US operation in contrast to the prolonged conflict in Ukraine.
• China: Concerned about its economic investments in Latin America, potentially jeopardized by the situation.
• General Trend: The reactions of Venezuela’s allies were predictable, while those of US allies were mixed, acknowledging the departure of a “gangster government” but expressing unease over the method of intervention. The operation is seen as potentially damaging to the US’s reputation for upholding international law and a liberal international order.

VI. Parallels to Putin’s Actions & US Foreign Policy Shift

The discussion draws a parallel between Trump’s actions and Putin’s disregard for international law, suggesting a “Putinization of American politics.” Trump’s past violations of international law, including destroying boats off the Venezuelan coast, are cited as examples. Echovich notes a shift in US national security strategy, outlined in a November report, which prioritizes the Western Hemisphere over Asia and Europe – a change that aligns with a “19th-century spheres of influence” approach reminiscent of Putin’s worldview. The effectiveness of such an approach in the 21st century is questioned.

VII. Domestic Political Considerations & Potential Backlash

The operation is framed as a potential “distraction” from domestic issues, specifically the investigations related to the FBI files and the debate over affordability. However, a potential decrease in gasoline prices due to control of Venezuelan oil could positively impact the affordability argument and potentially influence the midterm elections.

VIII. Data & Statistics

While no specific numerical data is presented, the discussion references the upcoming 2026 midterm elections and the November release of the US National Security Strategy.

Conclusion:

The situation in Venezuela remains highly fluid and uncertain. The US operation has triggered a complex web of geopolitical implications, dividing international opinion and raising questions about the future of US foreign policy. The success of the intervention hinges on the US’s ability to navigate these challenges, adapt to unforeseen circumstances, and balance its strategic goals with the principles of international law. The potential for internal conflict within Venezuela and the impact on US domestic politics add further layers of complexity to an already volatile situation. The prevailing theme throughout the analysis is one of profound uncertainty and the need for careful observation as events unfold.