Venezuela: What happened and what's next? | BBC News

Operation Absolute Resolve: The Seizure of Nicolás Maduro

Key Concepts:

• Operation Absolute Resolve: The US military operation to apprehend Nicolás Maduro.
• Narco-terrorism: The US charge leveled against Maduro, alleging involvement in drug trafficking and terrorism.
• Cartel de los Soles: A Venezuelan organization designated as a terrorist organization by the US, allegedly headed by Maduro.
• US Sanctions: Extensive economic sanctions imposed on Venezuela, particularly targeting oil exports.
• Political Instability in Venezuela: The ongoing humanitarian crisis, economic collapse, and political repression under Maduro’s rule.
• Nationalization of Venezuelan Oil Industry: The process by which the Venezuelan government took control of its oil resources, impacting US oil companies.

I. The Seizure of Maduro: Operation Details & Immediate Aftermath

The US seized former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from a safe house in Caracas on January 3rd, following a mission finalized in early December. The operation, dubbed “Operation Absolute Resolve,” involved meticulous planning, including the creation of a full-scale replica of Maduro’s residence for training purposes. The operation commenced late Friday night, local time, with explosions around 2:00 AM Saturday morning. Over 150 aircraft were deployed to transport the extraction team, targeting Venezuelan air defense systems and military installations.

A CIA source within the Venezuelan government provided crucial intelligence, pinpointing Maduro’s location at Fuerte Tuna, a military complex housing high-ranking officials. Venezuelan officials reported bombed-out buildings and charred vehicles in the aftermath. Maduro attempted to reach a safe room but was apprehended. The Cuban government reported 32 of its nationals were killed during the operation, as they provided Maduro’s personal security detail and were integrated into the Venezuelan military. Additionally, at least 23 Venezuelan military personnel were killed. Maduro was subsequently transported aboard the USS Ewima, handcuffed, blindfolded, and flown to the US, where he pleaded not guilty to charges including narco-terrorism at the US Drug Enforcement Administration office in New York and in court.

II. Historical Context: Maduro’s Rise and US Accusations

Nicolás Maduro assumed the presidency in 2013, succeeding his mentor Hugo Chávez. He received ideological training in Cuba, fostering close ties with the Castro brothers and later, Miguel Díaz-Canel. Maduro was re-elected in 2024, but the US and many other nations deemed the election illegitimate due to alleged rigging. His presidency has been marked by increasing repression of opposition groups, silencing dissent through violence, and a mass exodus of Venezuelans – nearly 8 million have left the country in the past decade due to economic crisis, shortages, and political persecution.

The US began building a case against Maduro in 2020, during the Trump administration, leveling charges of narco-terrorism, corruption, and drug trafficking. In 2025, he was accused of being one of the world’s largest narco-traffickers. In August of the previous year, the US doubled the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million. Maduro consistently denies these accusations, characterizing them as US political propaganda. As stated by an expert, “Nicholas Maduro undoubtedly presided over a very very corrupt government, very corrupt regime, very corrupt armed forces and those are essentially still in place.”

III. Escalation of US Military Action & Sanctions

The US escalated its actions in late August, deploying warships off the Venezuelan coast. On September 2nd, Trump announced the killing of 11 “narco-terrorists” in a strike on an alleged drug trafficking vessel. This initiated months of strikes, announced via social media, targeting vessels suspected of drug trafficking. Over 35 strikes were launched in the Pacific and Caribbean, resulting in over 110 deaths. The identities of those killed remain largely unknown, with only two survivors – a Colombian and an Ecuadorian national – identified.

These strikes drew criticism, with legal experts arguing that some, particularly a second strike on a vessel following a first strike with survivors, likely constituted extrajudicial killings under international law. The White House defended its actions as necessary to protect the US from drug cartels.

By November 11th, a US naval strike force, including the USS Gerald R. Ford (carrying over 4,000 troops and dozens of aircraft), arrived in the Caribbean, joining an existing substantial military presence including a nuclear-powered submarine. On November 24th, the US designated Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization, alleging Maduro’s leadership. On December 10th, the US claimed to have seized an oil tanker near Venezuela involved in illicit oil shipping, a claim disputed by Venezuela, who alleged the US kidnapped the crew and stole the ship. A complete US blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela followed, impacting over 30 of the 80 ships in Venezuelan waters. A second oil tanker was seized on December 21st, and a drone strike on a dock area linked to alleged Venezuelan drug boats occurred on December 29th, attributed to the CIA.

IV. The Oil Factor & Future Challenges

A key motivation behind the US actions extends beyond drug trafficking to encompass oil. President Trump repeatedly claimed Venezuela “stole US oil,” referring to the nationalization of Venezuela’s oil industry, which resulted in the termination or alteration of contracts with US oil companies. These companies claim they are owed millions in compensation.

However, the return of US oil companies to Venezuela faces significant challenges: political instability, dilapidated infrastructure requiring years of restoration, and security concerns, including the potential for backlash from those opposed to US involvement.

V. Post-Maduro Venezuela & Political Implications

With Maduro’s removal, Delcy Rodríguez, his vice president, has assumed the presidency. This transition has been met with outrage from Chavistas, who view the US intervention as a violation of sovereignty. While some may have desired Maduro’s removal, the manner in which it was executed is widely criticized.

The long-term plan, according to sources, involves establishing a stable environment conducive to free and fair elections, potentially paving the way for a candidate like María Corina Machado. However, the current situation highlights the enduring power of Maduro’s inner circle and the complexities of navigating the political landscape in Venezuela. As one commentator noted, “Washington displayed this awesome power that everybody knew they possessed.”

This operation represents a significant escalation in US policy towards Venezuela, driven by concerns over drug trafficking, political repression, and control of oil resources. The long-term consequences for Venezuela and the region remain to be seen.