Venezuela: A sign of relief, but country's future remains uncertain • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Power Vacuum: A situation arising from the removal of a leader or governing power, leading to instability and competition for control.
• US Interventionism: The policy of a country (in this case, the US) intentionally interfering in the internal affairs of another country.
• Narco-Trafficking: The illegal trade of narcotics, particularly significant in the context of Venezuela’s political situation.
• Regime Change: The overthrow of a government by means other than a free and fair election.
• Cartel de los Soles: A Venezuelan drug cartel allegedly linked to the Maduro regime, named after the suns on the shoulders of Venezuelan military officers.

Venezuela’s Political Transition: An Analysis of Current Scenarios and US Involvement

Contextualizing the Situation & Initial Reactions

The recent developments in Venezuela, specifically the removal of Nicolás Maduro from power, have been met with a mixture of relief and apprehension by Venezuelans both within the country and abroad. Vicente Oliv, a Franco-Venezuelan author, described the initial reaction as “a huge sigh of relief,” emphasizing that Maduro was a “highly unpopular dictator” who secured a demonstrably illegitimate victory in the 2024 elections, receiving less than 30% of the vote while the opposition garnered 64%. However, this relief is tempered by uncertainty regarding the future, with concerns that the United States’ departure leaves the country to navigate a complex and potentially volatile transition independently.

Potential Scenarios & the Risk of Instability

Oliv identifies a “power vacuum” as the immediate consequence of Maduro’s removal, drawing parallels to the 2002 overthrow of President Chavez. He outlines several possible scenarios, ranging from a peaceful transition – which he deems unlikely – to more violent outcomes. These include:

• Internal Military Conflict: A struggle for power within the Venezuelan military, with different factions vying for control.
• Mini Civil War: Clashes between pro-government and anti-government factions on the streets.
• Consolidation of Power through Violence: The remaining elements of the Maduro regime attempting to maintain control through intimidation and force, utilizing tactics like deploying police and “black blocks” (paramilitary groups) to “terrorize the population.”

He expresses hope that any ensuing chaos will be contained more quickly than the decades-long conflict experienced in Colombia, but acknowledges the current situation is “very violent and… a difficult situation.”

US Interventionism: A Critical Perspective

Oliv presents a dissenting view on US intervention in Venezuela, stating he is “one of the few people in Venezuela who isn’t very keen on US interventions.” Despite acknowledging the desperation for change after 27 years under the same regime, he argues that US regime change efforts in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Panama have historically yielded negative results. He posits that a successful outcome following US intervention – where a country actually “prospered” after the removal of a leader – would be unprecedented. He questions the justification for charging Maduro with leading the “Cartel de los Soles,” acknowledging his involvement in the widespread drug trafficking within Venezuela but disputing the claim that he operates as the cartel’s central figure, comparing his role to a facilitator allowing various “gangs” (Syrians, Iranians, Colombians, etc.) to operate with impunity.

Assessment of the US Operation & Narco-Trafficking Charges

While critical of US intervention in principle, Oliv acknowledges the relatively limited casualties during the operation that led to Maduro’s removal, expressing relief that it did not escalate into a larger conflict given Venezuela’s high levels of militarization and violence. He raises skepticism about the US’s ability to successfully prosecute Maduro on drug trafficking charges, noting the complex network of actors involved and Maduro’s role as a facilitator rather than a direct commander. He suggests pinning these charges on Maduro will be a challenge, given the decentralized nature of drug trafficking within Venezuela.

The Role of Narco-Trafficking

The transcript highlights the centrality of narco-trafficking to the Venezuelan situation. The US President has emphasized this aspect, but Oliv clarifies that while Venezuela is “rife with drug trafficking” and the government is implicated, Maduro’s involvement is more nuanced than being the “head of the table” like El Chapo. Instead, he operates within a network of interconnected groups, allowing the trade to flourish while maintaining a degree of plausible deniability.

Concluding Remarks

The situation in Venezuela remains highly uncertain. While Maduro’s removal represents a potential turning point, the country faces significant risks of instability and violence. Oliv’s perspective offers a critical assessment of US interventionism, highlighting the historical failures of such policies and questioning the justification for specific charges against Maduro. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining whether Venezuela can navigate this transition peacefully and establish a more stable and democratic future.