US: Ukraine talks enter 'very critical week' | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Ceasefire: A temporary suspension of fighting.
• Annexation: The forcible acquisition of one state's territory by another state.
• Mediation: Intervention in a dispute in order to resolve it.
• NATO Membership: Joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a military alliance.
• Security Guarantees: Assurances of protection against attack.
• Arm Supplies: Weapons and military equipment provided to a country.
• Sanctions: Economic or political penalties imposed on a country.
• Patriot Interceptors: Anti-missile systems.
• Soviet Calibers: Ammunition compatible with Soviet-era weapons.
• Czech Ammunition Initiative: An effort to supply Ukraine with ammunition.

1. Ceasefire Announcement and Previous Attempts:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a three-day ceasefire in Ukraine from May 8th to 10th to mark the 80th anniversary of Moscow's World War II victory over Nazi Germany.
• The Kremlin expects Ukraine to observe the ceasefire but warned of a Russian response to any violations.
• A similar truce announced during Easter did not hold.

2. US Involvement and Potential Withdrawal:

• The US believes talks on a truce in Ukraine are entering a "very critical week," according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
• Rubio stated that a deal needs to "happen soon," or Washington could withdraw from the peace effort.
• President Donald Trump has alleged that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would be willing to give up the Crimean Peninsula, annexed by Russia, to secure a peace deal, which Zelenskyy has repeatedly denied.

3. Trump's Shifting Stance and Criticism of Putin:

• President Trump has called on Russia to stop its attacks on Ukraine.
• After a meeting with Zelenskyy in the Vatican, Trump adopted a more critical attitude towards Putin, accusing him of not wanting to stop the war.
• Trump expressed surprise and disappointment that Russia continued bombing after discussions.

4. Decisive Week for US Mediation:

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the coming week would be decisive in determining whether the US continues its involvement in the peace process.
• Rubio believes the sides have been brought closer but are "not there yet."

5. Ongoing Conflict and International Involvement:

• Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian troops are continuing to fight in Russia's Kursk region despite Putin's declaration of victory there.
• Russia and North Korea have confirmed that Pyongyang sent troops to Russia to support its war against Ukraine.

6. Analysis by Military Expert Gustav Gressel:

• Gustav Gressel, a military and security expert at the National Defense Academy in Vienna, believes the Trump administration may abandon its attempts to end the war in Ukraine.
• Gressel notes that Trump has not moved the Russian position, and the Ukrainians are unwilling to give anything "for nothing."
• Gressel suggests that the US president is losing patience and believes he cannot achieve an "easy and quick victory" on the diplomatic front.

7. Unlikelihood of Ukraine Ceding Crimea:

• Gressel considers it "quite unlikely" that Ukraine would agree to give up Crimea.
• He argues that Ukraine would only consider such a concession if it received something in return, such as NATO membership or security guarantees from the West, which are not currently on the table.

8. Potential Consequences of US Withdrawal:

• If the US withdraws as a mediator, Gressel believes the war will likely "drag on."
• Russia will assess how Ukraine fights without US arm supplies, which are expected to run out by summer.
• Russia will then evaluate the extent of European support for Ukraine and its impact on the military situation.
• Negotiations may resume in mid-2025 if Russia fails to achieve its objectives militarily.

9. Current Frontline Situation and Military Supplies:

• The frontline situation is characterized by incremental Russian gains at high losses.
• Ukraine is currently in a "very good position" due to military supplies from the outgoing Biden administration and ammunition acquired through the Czech Ammunition Initiative.
• Syria has collapsed and a lot of ammunition for Soviet calibers has found its way to the free market and was bought up by Ukraine by its supporters through the Czech ammunition initiative.

10. Critical Air Strike Situation:

• Ukraine is facing a critical situation with air strikes and is unlikely to receive new Patriot interceptors.
• The limited number of interceptors forces Ukraine to conserve them, allowing Russia to strike with missiles more often.
• The expert raises concerns about whether this trend will extend beyond missile attacks and affect the overall military situation.
• The ability of European countries to increase military supplies to Ukraine will be crucial.

11. Notable Quotes:

• Marco Rubio: "A deal needs to happen soon otherwise Washington could walk away from the peace effort."
• Marco Rubio: "This week is going to be a really important week in which we have to make a determination about whether this is an endeavor that we want to continue to be involved in."

12. Synthesis/Conclusion:

The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with a declared ceasefire facing skepticism due to past failures. The US is at a critical juncture in its mediation efforts, potentially considering withdrawal if progress is not made soon. The likelihood of Ukraine ceding Crimea is low without significant concessions from Russia or security guarantees from the West. The war's trajectory hinges on continued military support for Ukraine, particularly from Europe, and the ability to counter Russian air strikes. The coming weeks will be decisive in determining the future of the conflict and the extent of international involvement.